Even as some news networks such as The Eye have conducted recent polling that puts Sen. Obama ahead by as much of a spread as +10 (MoE at + or - 4% for the CBS poll), other polls, including the following AP poll, hint at a different story of how tight this race actually may be:
WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
We'll see how this turns out in a mere thirteen days, of course, but I'm going to stick with my latest gut feeling: McCain just may win this thing. Some may say I'm stepping out on a limb, especially as the Obama team is practically declaring victory two weeks before we even go to the polls, but I have a feeling that people like Joe the Plumber--people like you and me...regular country bumpkins--are going to come out strong for Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin on November 4th. Before Sen. Obama made his "spread the wealth" comments, I wasn't so sure, but most people I know (not everyone, mind you) don't take too kindly to socialism and Robin Hood trickle-up capitalism. Most people I know don't want to be like Europe. Most people I know want to hold on to as much of their hard-earned money as possible. And most people I know are more generous with their own money than the democrats give them credit for.
Cross-posted on Artful Politics (NEW BLOG!)