October 22, 2008
AP Poll: Presidential Race in Dead Heat

Even as some news networks such as The Eye have conducted recent polling that puts Sen. Obama ahead by as much of a spread as +10 (MoE at + or - 4% for the CBS poll), other polls, including the following AP poll, hint at a different story of how tight this race actually may be:

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

We'll see how this turns out in a mere thirteen days, of course, but I'm going to stick with my latest gut feeling: McCain just may win this thing. Some may say I'm stepping out on a limb, especially as the Obama team is practically declaring victory two weeks before we even go to the polls, but I have a feeling that people like Joe the Plumber--people like you and me...regular country bumpkins--are going to come out strong for Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin on November 4th. Before Sen. Obama made his "spread the wealth" comments, I wasn't so sure, but most people I know (not everyone, mind you) don't take too kindly to socialism and Robin Hood trickle-up capitalism. Most people I know don't want to be like Europe. Most people I know want to hold on to as much of their hard-earned money as possible. And most people I know are more generous with their own money than the democrats give them credit for.

-Cydney

Cross-posted on Artful Politics (NEW BLOG!)

Posted by Cydney at October 22, 2008 09:39 PM | Email This
Comments
1. My daughter's poli sci prof (who she thinks may be an Obamite) says this is an unusual race and McCain just might pull this one out yet. Very interesting. That was kind of my feeling.

Posted by: Michele on October 22, 2008 10:55 PM
2. ..and yes, Obama and Biden have NOT earned the right to tell anybody else how to 'give.' Most of us are already better givers on our own than those guys have been. By a mile!

Posted by: Michele on October 22, 2008 11:05 PM
3. The media uses polls to shape outcomes. Ten days before the election in 1980, Carter was up by about 10 points on Reagan. I remember election night as the numbers came in state by state. I was with a certain foolish Democrat who was stunned. I also remember Susan Estrich coming completely unwound in 2004 as it became clear that Kerry was going to lose, even after early exit polls predicted a win and Kerry's campaign adviser asked if he could be the first one to call Kerry "Mr. President."

Obama is remaining a little more cautious. And of course ACORN activists are probably working their butts off to convert all of those fraudulent registrations, in to fraudulent absentee votes.

It's going to be interesting.

Posted by: Jeff B. on October 22, 2008 11:13 PM
4. Cautious? Planning a $2 million election night party? Talks of tranistion teams? Talks of economic summits (I am glad George Bush waited till I could be there)?

Sorry, but that guy is smelling!!

Posted by: swatter on October 23, 2008 04:33 PM
5. That AP poll has 44% evangelical Christians in the sample. In 2004, it was closer to 25%.

Posted by: wayne on October 24, 2008 02:06 AM
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