April 28, 2008
It's not Global Warming, it's Global Cooling.

Read this short paper to help you understand why Earth's climate is far more determined by the Sun and our orbital relationship to the Sun.

Even if you are not an engineer or scientist, you should be able to follow along with this paper. After reading this you should easily be able to come away understanding that if all forces below act together on the Earth simultaneously, this is most likely the cause of our Ice Ages. This should be very intuitive as it is obvious to you that for example, you get colder if you move further away from the heater. Or that your head would get colder if you leaned or tilted yourself such that your head was further from the heater than your body.

When there is a confluence of Precession, Solar Forcing, Obliquity, Eccentricity and another other external or internal forces to the Earth, we get an Ice Age. We know this to be true based on historical records.

Don't believe what you read in the media about AGW until you understand the Solar mechanisms that act on the Earth and where we are now with our solar position relative to history. And don't discount your own empirical observations of this past winter. Our best hope in understanding any phenomenon lies not in computer modeling of that phenomenon but in empirical data. Because models may be imperfect, but empirical data is observable in the here and now. A great example of the failure of AGW computer models is their inability to be applied to data sets from the past. In other words, past periods where much higher percentages of CO2 are known to have existed, but without corresponding global temperature rise. Good theories that withstand the test of time are applicable to any data set.

Satellites such as the SOHO satellite observe that Sun spots and other leading Solar indicators are at a significant minimum. The long forecast Solar Cycle 24 has yet to appear and may be delayed for another year which has a very significant impact on our climate.

Given ethanol mandates which encourage farmers to reroute food grain production to fuel production, we are now experiencing food shortages, and preciesely at the time when we might experience a trend to cooling and less ability to grow food. This could be a disastrous perfect storm of man and nature.

You should be far more concerned with politics and policy that encourage nuclear power and any and all methods of energy production that lead to overall cheap energy. Because if we enter a cooling phase as this paper and many other scientists are now claiming, our most important commodity will be low cost energy. If you don't understand that, then compare your energy bill of this winter to that of previous winters, like that of say, 2001.

Before you let a politician tell you about science, you should read a lot of information directly from scientists and engineers. It is all available on the Internet. And unlike the computer models used by AGW theorists, all data and methodology is published so that you and others can verify it for yourself. If you need more references to papers and information, I'm happy to provide them. There are literally thousands of other papers and observations that are in direct opposition to what you read about in the popular media. You can assume that every dissent with politicians is wrong, or you can explore for yourself and challenge your existing sources. You might come away surprised.


Some terms in the paper that may not be familiar to you are as follows:

KY = KiloYear or 1000 years.

Global Climate Model LLN2-D NH = Computer models used by Human Caused (anthropogenic) Global Warming Theorists as a basis for the current popular beliefs of media and political concern over CO2.

AGW = Anthropogenic or human caused Global Warming, a theory based on computer models.

SPECMAP = Database of the chronology of Oxygen Isotope records from ice cores, etc. that are a well defined historical record.

Precession = The tilt of the earth relative to the vertical axis of orbit that causes our seasons. Similar to the way a top moves when it is slightly off axis.

Obliquity = The actual tilt of the Earth's orbital axis which causes precession. This tilt varies slightly over time.

Eccentricity = The extent of the oval shape of Earth's orbit with respect to the Sun. More eccentricity means more oval shape which means as we near the furthest extent of the oval we are farthest from the Sun than in other Earth orbits.

Solar Forcing = Direct effects of the Sun on our climate by the amount of Solar energy, X-Rays, Sun-spots, etc. that come to the Earth from the Sun.

SOHO = Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. A satellite put up to specifically monitor energy, wavelength, emissions, magnetism, etc. of the Sun.

Posted by JeffB. at April 28, 2008 11:37 AM | Email This
Comments
1. But this just cant be true....Al Gore said so!

/sarcasm

Great post Jeff as usual. I noticed the other day that the only Australian NASA Astronaut, who I believe is a physisist(spelling?), also pointed out that with the decrease in solar flares we are seeing an increase in cloud cover blocking out the suns solar rays. This in turns is causing a cooling trend, not a warming trend. Of course he was disregarded by the MSM as some crackpot NASA Astronaut Scientist.

Posted by: TrueSoldier on April 29, 2008 05:59 AM
2. I also just say this article on Foxnews.com:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353023,00.html

Just one more reason I am looking into Hillsdale College for my boys when the time comes for them to go off to College.

Posted by: TrueSoldier on April 29, 2008 06:02 AM
3. This story from the BBC backs up your excellent analysis:
Global temperatures for 2008 will be slightly cooler than last year as a result of the cold La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.
The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.
Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a degree.
This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.
La Nina’s sometimes last as long as 10 to 15 years and is the logical transition from El Nino’s effects for more than a decade.

Posted by: Bob Clark on April 29, 2008 09:17 PM
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