Credit to Ace of Spades HQ for the count...
"Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.
Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)
Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.
Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.
Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.
States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:
California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26
Total 671
If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.
Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:
McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.
It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday."
It's by no means over. Consider if McCain doesn't win a majority, and it goes to convention. If he has 49 percent ... is it reasonably possible that almost all of the other 51 percent WILL NOT under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES vote to nominate McCain? Sure youbetcha.
(Minnesota accent added for effect.)
Posted by: pudge on January 30, 2008 03:39 PMI largely agree with your analysis but I think everything will hinge on CA next Tues. McCain will clearly win NY, NJ, CT, AZ, and probably IL. He probably will beat Huck in MO, TN, and maybe OK and GA.
A poll came out today showing Romney w/i 4 in CA. I think the poll was pre-Giuliani and Arnold endorsement. Even so, CA is winner-take-all by CD (3 per district). I don't see Mitt catching him in the Bay Area, LA, or San Diego (a Navy town, after all). He might in the Central Valley, Orange County, and San Berdo/Riverside. Bottomline: I don't see Mitt carrying more than 20 CD's (the Republican ones), even if he wins statewide (only 11 delegates). At best Mitt takes 71 delegates out of CA and McC 99. But that would probably be enough to keep going.
Even so, in the post 2/5 states, barring a major blunder, it is difficult to see how McCain ends up with less than 1000 delegates and Romney more than 700.
Can Romney take the 700 unpledged and Huckabee delegates by 500-200? I doubt it. On the other hand, McCain pulled an inside straight to get here. Maybe Romney can too. But that's what it will take.
If McCain wins CA next week, it's over.
Posted by: besquared on January 31, 2008 05:30 PM