November 06, 2006
...and if it Rains on Election Day?

...the Dems will not be happy.

As the King County Journal reported Sunday in a story from the St. Petersburg Times,

"A new study of voter behaviour confirms something political operatives have long suspected: rain hurts Democrats and helps Republicans. The study found that 1 inch of rain reduces overall turnout by slightly less than 1 percent and cuts the Demoratic vote by 2.5 percentage points."

"By analyzing weather and voting data since 1948, (visiting professor of political science at the University of Georgia and co-author of study) Brad Gomez calculated how many voters stayed home because of rain and snow....The more it rains, the more people stay home". And apparently it's Democrats who stay home more.

Why?

"Political operatives believe it's a matter of demographics. Democratic voters tend to be poorer than Republicans and may not have cars to drive to the polls. Those voters, the theory goes, would be more likely to stay home in bad weather...Another explanation is that Democrats are more likely to be what poltical scientists call "peripheral voters", people casually interested in politics who don't feel compelled to vote in every election. Their decision about voting is more likely to be influenced by outside factors such as rain."

I don't think this phenomenon affects voters in Seattle so much due to the common-ness of a rainy day here, but it apparently has implications for races all across the nation. The study's authors conclude that "if there had been storms in the Northeast and the Midwest during the 1960 president election, Richard Nixon would have won instead of John Kennedy."

Hmmm. Well, God does work in mysterious ways. But I wouldn't stake too much on weather. The Republican party is doing the right thing by focusing on GOTV efforts across the country. If it rains, so be it.

Posted by MicheleDeRouis at November 06, 2006 12:31 AM | Email This
Comments
1. There is a certain segment of the population (you liberals, to be specific) that is afflicted with the "DO SOMETHING" disease. However that doesn't mean they individually will DO SOMETHING, but that they fully expect their comrades to DO SOMETHING.

It appears God may just be a Conservative, after all

Rain and heavy winds rolling in
Pineapple Express brings flood threat

Expect steady rainfall and heavy winds today and Tuesday in the Puget Sound region, with flood warnings for several Western Washington counties, according to the National Weather Service.

About 3 inches are expected in the Seattle metropolitan area today and Tuesday. Two to 6 inches of rain could hit lowlands, and the Cascades and Olympics may face up to 10 inches.


Posted by: Ragnar Danneskold on November 6, 2006 10:15 AM
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