In which you can opine on anything, as long as you keep it family friendly.
This would be a good time to make any election predictions. I've been fascinated to see that almost all partisans now think that their side will win, so I would be especially interested to hear from those who say they are voting for one candidate, but expect the other to win.
I am still working on my own main predictions, which I really do hope to have done by Tuesday. But I will make one, just to get things started. Contrary to what the Washington poll found, Obama will not win Washington state by almost 21 points (57.1-36.4) In fact, he will not do as well as he did in 2008, when he won Washington by 18 points (58-40). (In 2004, Kerry won Washington by 7 points (53-46).)
If the poll is that wrong on the presidential race, could it have biased results, generally? Sure, and I am inclined to think that it does.
Posted by Jim Miller at November 02, 2012 12:56 PM | Email ThisVoting for McKenna - I believe the state needs a shake-up. I think though he will lose 51-49. Very very tough for a Republican to win here.
Voting for R-74, which will win handily.
Voting against 502 - I believe Federal Law "shall be the supreme law of the land" and won't vote for a plainly unconstitutional initiative even though I really don't care if dope is legal or not. But, I think 502 will win by 10 percent.
Voting for 1240 and think (hope?) it will win in a close vote, 53-47.
Voting against 1185. I believe complex budget decisions shouldn't be constrained by simplistic rules. But, I know it will win easily. Not sure it will win in court.
There you go! I'm sure my ballot won't be popular on SP, but I do enjoy the site.
Posted by: Moderate Man on November 2, 2012 02:42 PMRomney wins WI, OH, FL, CO, NV and VA and takes it. McKenna wins in a recount.
If that happens, I'm not concerned with everything else.
Go Seahawks.
Posted by: Palouse on November 2, 2012 03:13 PM2. The popular vote will be the same direction as electoral collage, but a lot closer (as was in 2004). East Coast urban areas will take a hit due to storm, along with reduced youth vote will put this one close to 49% likelihood that Romney wins popular vote.
3. There will be voting problems with King County and it will delay at least the governor's vote. Have you seen the vote online and print your own return envelope they have? This is asking for problems. Governor's race: McKenna by a nose (something like 50.1% to 49.9%)
4. Unfortunately, Maria Cantwell will win reelection, but it will be a lot closer than recent senate races.
5. For my congressional district, now District 1 (for moving), the race will be extremely close with DelBene eaking out a win. Koster's "thing" statement, while not a big deal, will peal off a few undecideds.
6. For my old congressional district, Derek Kilmer will take over from retiring Norm Dicks. Derek has won his State Senate races comfortably and is middle-of-the-road, like the district. Unfortunately for him, however, he will have a rough going in DC. He will be pressed from the left to adopt their agenda and the right will ignore him for the (D) by his name. He doesn't have the history and goodwill built up that Norm had.
That is all I am willing to go out on the limb right now on. It should be interesting final days. Here is looking forward to the end of campaign commercials for a while (PLEASE).
Posted by: tc on November 2, 2012 03:25 PMSee Representative Walsh Stand up in favor of Gay Marriage. Republican Leadership at its finest!
Posted by: Sean on November 2, 2012 03:27 PMDoes anyone know if this mailing was funded by the Washington State Republican Party? I looked for a "paid by.." thing on the mailing and couldn't find one.
I wonder if this is how the Republicans plan to pull Dunn and McKenna over the top?
Posted by: Jake on November 2, 2012 03:37 PMAnd it showed a gain of more than 300K jobs.
Jake- If it doesn't have the "paid by" on it, then it doesn't come from the party.
It might be from a group trying to sabotage Republicans, if it was sent to people likely to oppose gay marriage. In other words, it might have been sent to you in order to get you not to vote.
(Incidentally, McKenna opposes gay marriage.)
Posted by: Jim Miller on November 2, 2012 03:48 PMGosh, it's hard to tell who the Republicans are in this state even with a scorecard.
Many of my friends are not voting for McKenna but indeed are writing in "JESUS!". Yeah call us "Jesus freaks" if you want but God is more important to us than the GOP!
Better to waste a vote then to lay waste to my soul! Lesser of two evils is still evil!
Posted by: Ben on November 2, 2012 04:07 PMThe Governor's contest. McKenna if he wins by a wide enough margin not to force a recount. If there is a recount, all bets are off - because the GOP have proven to be feckless time and time again.
Cantwell will win. Will someone please tell me why Baumgarter did not debate her ?? He was a decent candidate, but its on him for not at least demanding a debate and making an issue of it.
Wyman will win SOS, Dunn will squeak by for AG - that one might see a recount. Owen will win Lt. Gov. again.
I'll make a prediction on the POTUS by late Sunday - too many moving parts and attempted media manipulation. The storm effect is not clear at this time - it may have stopped or slowed momentum but in the end, don't see it reversing it, in the face of another mediocre jobs report and Libya.
Posted by: KDS on November 2, 2012 04:12 PMI think what most pundits are missing is the real anger that there is in the conservative grassroots. They are really angry that they are being forced to vote for Romney, and many just won't do it. Others will do so because they hate Obama just so much but will take out their anger against the GOP on the "less costly races" (or so they think) like in our state the Governor.
I have lost count on the number of people I have talked to who have said, I might have to vote for that damn Romney but there is no way I will vote for McKenna.
I too have heard of the "Jesus" movement. The idea being that if you are going to waste a vote "Jesus" is a better statement than "Mickey Mouse".
McKenna is going to get it from both ways. From an angry Left and an angry Right. And I am sorry there's just not enough people in the middle to make up for all those in the Right who are going to sit out of the Governor's Race.
I don't know what church you go to KDS or if you even go to a church KDS but that is what I am hearing from people in my church. And sorry there's just not the Inslee anger out there like there is the Obama anger, so whatever factor the Republicans were hoping that hate will pull McKenna over the finish line, it just isn't out there.
Posted by: James on November 2, 2012 04:30 PM14-year-old Sarah Crank and her mother describing the vicious attacks against Sarah by homosexuals following the girl's testimony in favor of traditional marriage in the Maryland state legislature in January.
"It never occurred to me in a million years that they would think about publicly attacking a child, publicly bullying a child," says the mother of a 14-year-old threatened with rape.
Posted by: RagnarDanneskold on November 2, 2012 04:35 PM"In this state, conservative Democrats Tim Sheldon, Jim Hargrove and Paull Shin opposed the measure. That meant Democrats needed at least one
Republican vote - and they got four, from King County Republican Sens. Steve Litzow, Cheryl Pflug, Andy Hill, and Joe Fain."
http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/02/01/2008633/senate-votes-28-21-to-legalize.html
Rob McKenna will prevail over a horribly flawed Jay Inslee.
Hopefully sodomite marriage will fail or we will be the laughingstock of all decent, civilized people.
Hopefully legalized pot will fail also, as we have far too many dopes in this state already.
Posted by: Saltherring on November 2, 2012 05:23 PMSome of these state polls vary wildly. For example, there were two recent polls in Massachusetts for the same period of time. One showed Obama winning by 32 points, and the other showed Obama winning by only 17 points. Obama will almost certainly win Massachusetts, but the difference between the two polls defies all common sense in the polling and statistical science.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ma/massachusetts_romney_vs_obama-1804.html
Posted by: Richard Pope on November 2, 2012 05:43 PMIt's been reported that King County GOP is offering to collect and return voters' ballots.
We recommend that voters return ballots to an official King County Elections ballot drop-off location or through the US Postal Service. Voters may use the online ballot tracker to confirm that King County has received their ballot.
http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections.aspx
Posted by: Sean on November 2, 2012 07:22 PMPierce County voters can follow up on their returned ballots at:
http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/pc/abtus/ourorg/aud/elections/main/current.htm
Posted by: FurryGuy on November 2, 2012 07:39 PMWhereas we know the reverse is probably happening.
I see the statement on the web site as being VERY politically motivated and in and of itself trying to influence the direction of this election!
Posted by: Sean on November 2, 2012 08:10 PMDemocrats, just as in 2010, won't learn from defeat.
Posted by: Attila on November 3, 2012 01:32 AMWave II Polling Results (Nov 1, 2008)
Obama: 51%
McCain: 39%
Election Results:
Obama: 57.7%
McCain: 40.5%
And let's not forget how their liberal bias caused them to miss in the gubernatorial race:
Wave II Polling Results (Nov 1, 2008)
Gregoire: 50%
Rossi: 48%
One of the SP local geniuses saw right through that one:
Rossi is going to win. The polls are wrong.
Posted by: pudge on November 1, 2008 06:03 PM
Well, he was half right. The polls were wrong!
Election Results:
Gregoire: 53.2%
Rossi: 46.8%
There's going to be a lot of surprised and disappointed folks around here Tuesday night. My suggestion: lock up the guns and sharp knives and give yourselves a chance to get over it.
Posted by: scottd on November 3, 2012 07:23 AMOK, I'll say what few others else will: The love which formerly dared not speak its name, now not only shouts it from the housetops and on prime time TV shows, it has become a domineering, covetous love, seeking to take for itself more than what rightfully belongs to it. Gay marriage is simply a bridge too far. As a gay man, I am saddened by the license political correctness issues to same-sex marriage proponents to be uncivil and repress debate.
I was a panelist at a Town Hall meeting held near Annapolis several days ago, explaining to my fellow Marylanders why they should vote against Question 6, regarding same-sex marriage. At one point, a man stood up to ask a question. He, along with every other person in the room, knew that I am gay, so he prefaced his point with, "First of all, I need to state that I am not a 'hater,'" before continuing on.
My reaction surprised the crowd: "It's a tragedy that anyone who questions the plausibility of an idea as implausible as same sex marriage, fears being labeled a homophobe. It's perfectly reasonable to question the viability of this new law -- a controversial law which passed only narrowly on a partisan vote in our legislature."
As actively engaged citizens, we are supposed to be involved in healthy, productive debates about this topic from one end of the Free State to the other in advance of casting our ballots. But for some reason, decent folks with legitimate viewpoints frequently choose to remain silent. Why?
...
The proponents of same sex marriage often assert, "I should be able to marry anyone I love, regardless of gender." This begs the question, "What's love got to do with it?" In the eyes of the state, love should be completely inconsequential to marriage. Nowhere on your state's marriage license application does it ask, "Do you love each other?" Same-sex marriage proponents need to stop putting forth this subterfuge, and be willing to engage in serious intellectual debate.
Another argument frequently employed claims "We need to evolve." It is alleged that our nation's definition of marriage had previously evolved with the advent of "Loving v. Virginia," which struck down a law prohibiting interracial marriage. This is spurious. The Virginia Legislature earlier had corrupted the definition of marriage by banning mixed marriages. The "Loving v. Virginia" ruling simply restored the true definition of marriage, which is the union of a man and a woman, regardless of race.
The best thing concerned citizens can do is to simply speak up. Don't allow yourself to be cowed into silence. It's OK to disagree with the notion of same-sex marriage.
Please vote and make a special effort to encourage your family and friends to vote. It is critical that we win this election.
Thanks,
Steve Altick
47th LD GOP/Chairman
Auburn, Washington
253.631.1930
I hope these riots do not materialize and liberal progressives would be wise to act mature for a change, even though that would be a magnanimous challenge for pinheads.
Posted by: KDS on November 3, 2012 05:18 PMWith the rabid left loudly threatening for the last month ... well, just remember WTO: they think THAT'S "what democracy looks like".
Posted by: RagnarDanneskold on November 3, 2012 08:21 PMHe is saying the good guys will win and the small, petulant and vengeful person currently occupying the Oval Office will lose. It is doubtful he will not go out without kicking and screaming in some way and don't be surprised if his actions indicate revenge by not being reelected. Don't go away angry, passive-aggressive Obama, just go away !
Posted by: KDS on November 3, 2012 11:21 PMAnother protracted election like 2000 would be a very unhealthy scenario for this Republic, IMHO !
Posted by: KDS on November 4, 2012 09:00 AMAnother protracted election like 2000 would be a very unhealthy scenario for this Republic, IMHO !
Posted by: KDS on November 4, 2012 09:00 AM-- For a variety of reasons, mail-in ballots are much more likely to be rejected than conventional, in-person votes.
With the razor-close presidential election Tuesday between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney potentially riding on a few tens of thousands of votes in a handful of states, the election could be decided by election officials' judgments about mail-in ballot signatures.
-- National law requires equipment at voting stations that informs voters of ballot issues and lets them fix them; fix-it opportunities are not mandated for mail-in ballots.
As a result, mail-in ballot voters who manage to get a ballot to election officials are about four times more likely to see their vote go uncounted as those who vote in person, Stewart calculates.
Add in the number of ballots never sent to voters who request them and ballots that don't make it to the polling station, and approximately one in five mail-in votes may be lost, Stewart says.
--Washington state came more recently to vote-by-mail. It rejected more than 2 of every 100 ballots in 2008. But the state cut that rate by a third in 2010, which State Elections Co-Director Shane Hamlin credited to massive voter education.
Signature issues and late ballots are the two main issues in Washington, like most states. "They are both totally fixable through education," he said.
Washington state is either collectively insane or KNOW how easy it is to lie, cheat and steal with absentee ballots.
"It fits the 21st century lifestyle," said Washington state Secretary of State Sam Reed.
No Sam, it fits the need to LIE, CHEAT and STEAL elections. Jerk.
Posted by: RagnarDanneskold on November 4, 2012 10:56 AM