June 04, 2012
John Koster Owns 1st CD Poll
The funny part about the SurveyUSA/KING5 poll of voters in the newly redrawn Washington's First Congressional District is not that Republican John Koster is winning with 46 percent; it's not that the five Democats crack just 34 percent combined; it's not that the numbers don't change much in any of the head-to-head matchup; it's not that party favorite Susan DelBene at 4 percent is way behind Darcy Burner at 19 percent, or that DelBene's behind 17 points head-to-head with Koster, whereas Burner's down only 9 percent.
No, the funny part to me is that the candidate who just might have the best chance against Koster is moderate, "roadkill Democrat," Steve Hobbs. His margin is actually better than DelBene's and Laura Rudeman's, because while he is more unknown and got fewer votes than them head to head (with a larger undecided pool), he also cut into Koster's vote more than any of the others.
This is a district that has 50% selecting a no-name Republican (22% undecided), 45% picking Romney over 44% Obama, and 52% McKenna over 38% Inslee. If a candidate with such massive popularity among leftists like Darcy Burner is to win the election, she has to tack way to the middle, and I just don't think she can do it. Hobbs is the only one of the five, I think, with a realistic shot at it.
Of course, this is a brand new district, and it is well within the realm of possibility that the numbers are completely off. We'll see what future polls, and then the primary, look like. But if these numbers hold up -- especially if Hobbs doesn't win the nomination -- it's nearly impossible to see how Washington state doesn't become a split delegation of five Democrats and five Republicans to the House next year.
The odds of a Republican governor winning the state this year are excellent, and the Senate delegation could split, too.
I don't think Obama is sweating the election of the presidential electors in this state, though.
Posted by pudge at June 04, 2012
05:05 PM | Email This
1. I'm in this new district. 4 votes for Koster at this house. I noticed his strength in said polls, as well. We will push hard to get him elected, and frankly he's really the best fit for this district. None of the democrats have a clue about the large rural parts of this district.
2. I agree...this will be a 'non-event' for candidate Obama. He will definitely not be 'sweating it'. :)
3. The Tides are turning, even in this state. Owebamma doesn't stand a chance this election, the Job numbers are going to H, the market is down 1500 points, people are losing their retirements, houses, and jobs. Not much of a reelection platform to be running on.
Owebama may not sweating it here, but he could well be sweating it in Wisconsin after tomorrow. Looks like Koster has a real shot at winning - he is worthy of being a representative of the people.
However, if the economy is about the same in September as it is now, stick a fork in the community organizer in chief- he be one and done.
5. If Darcy Burner makes it through the Top 2 primary, then Koster wins in November. Then the Democrats will need to face the music in 2014 and plead with Hobbs to run as the candidate who has the best chance to take this seat.
6. I've always thought Slade Gorton was smart. This new 1st district may give us more evidence for that conclusion.
Jim - Slade is a frigging genius! I still can't figure out how he Jedi-mind-tricked them into this map.
Realistically, given the Presidential vote in Washington, the D's should have AT LEAST a 6-4 advantage, probably a 7-3.
Yet, if Koster wins, it'll be 5-5.
Essentially, they solidified Reichert (who was holding down a district we really shouldn't hold) and Herrera-Beautler (who is holding down a district we hadn't won in nearly 15 years) while giving us a really excellent shot at then new 1st.
How Slade got them to do this, I'll never know. But I do know a redistricting fight was one of the first things he got involved in, way back in the early 60's as a young state Rep. And he's obviously still got the magic.
8. The biggest news in this poll, to me, is "52% McKenna over 38% Inslee" in the governor's race. Wasn't this pretty much Inslee's former district? And hasn't the Inslee campaign been telling us that those who know their candidate love him and are more likely to vote for him?
9. Anonymous: I think more than half of the new CD1 is not part of the old CD1.
The new 1st CD is VERY different from the old one.
I kind of wish James Watkins would have stayed in this race. With so many Democrats running in the Top 2 primary, we could have seen a Koster-Watkins race in November. That would have been sweet.
11. Leon, IMO, too big a risk. If that had happened, Dems would've pushed hard for keeping only two Dems in the race, and then, who knows? Plus, Watkins is a great candidate for State Auditor.
12. Burner is the one who's really occupying an alternative reality. Darce - go get a job. Time to quit this. There was enough of this from Dino Rossi. The people don't wish to hire you, get the message - go away. On the other hand, as long as the democrats wish to fund her to run, there'll always be a republican. Maybe she's a good thing.
13. Koster's biggest risk right now is that somehow Steve Hobbs gets through the primary. Burner, Delbene and Ruderman are all too crazy liberal for the district. Hobbs, on the other hand, would give Koster a run for his money.
14. Koster's biggest risk right now is that somehow Steve Hobbs gets through the primary. Burner, Delbene and Ruderman are all too crazy liberal for the district. Hobbs, on the other hand, would give Koster a run for his money.