Very close.
In the latest SurveyUSA poll, Murray leads Rossi by just 2 percent,
In an election for United States Senator from the state of Washington today, 09/22/10, incumbent Democrat Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi finish effectively even, according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-5 TV News in Seattle.
Today, it's Murray 50%, Rossi 48%, a result within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Murray is up 5 points; Rossi is down 4, a 9-point momentum swing to the Democrat.
There is a simple, and probably correct, explanation for Murray's gains; we have seen a barrage of ads from her campaign, some touting her ability to bring home the pork and others, more recently, attacking Rossi, often dishonestly. (Does Patty "no rocket scientist" Murray know her ads are dishonest? Hard to say. But some of her handlers certainly do.)
Rossi is beginning to reply, effectively in my opinion. And there is a glimmer of hope in even this poll: Independents are backing him 54-41. Note that the two draw almost equally strong support from their partisans, with Republicans giving Rossi 91 percent of their vote and Democrats giving Murray 89 percent of their vote.
Not surprisingly, Murray leads by a large margin among women and Rossi leads by an almost equally large margin among men. If I were advising the Rossi campaign, I would suggest using more pictures of Rossi with his family in order to reduce Murray's advantage with women. And he should continue talking about running because he wants a better world for that family.
Independent analysts also see this race as extremely close. Three of the four that Google uses for that map rate the race as a "tossup". The fourth, the Rothenberg Report, rates the race as a "Toss-up/tilt Democrat". (Google chose to classify that as "lean Dem").
Washington state gave John Kerry 53 percent of the vote in 2004 and Barack Obama 58 percent of the vote in 2008. Patty Murray, for all her faults, is a good campaigner with a big war chest, and has the almost unanimous support of our news organizations. She has had more than two decades of favorable news coverage, sometimes laughably favorable. (In her last run, our local journalists almost all agreed that it was unfair for her opponent to run commercials quoting her famous Osama "day care" statement, in context. Really.) That Dino Rossi is now this close shows just how strong the Republican tide is nationally, and how good a candidate Rossi is.
Cross posted at Jim Miller on Politics.
(Technical point: I am a little unhappy with the very small number of undecideds in that poll, even allowing for the fact that Murray and Rossi are very well known here. SurveyUSA may be pushing their respondents too hard to choose a side, for my tastes.
Here's an error to avoid, if you are looking at SurveyUSA polls of Washington state. Hannan assumes that "Metro Seattle" means King County; in fact, as SurveyUSA says quite clearly, Metro Seattle includes "Snohomish, Pierce and King counties". The other two counties are less reactionary than King, since they don't include Seattle.)
Posted by Jim Miller at September 24, 2010 09:52 AM | Email ThisThe attack campaign has started this week. So far, we've shot down a Murray ad created by Doug Foote of Massachusetts (who runs their social media campaign in Murrayland) that smeared Dino Rossi called "No Wonder" because it called our man Dino Rossie among other smears. But after Julie Edwards of Oregon bullied Robert Mak several weeks ago for asking Sen. Murray about earmarks, we're not surprised at the pathetic or bordering on pathetic behaviour of out-of-state Murray campaign staffers.
We've also lobbed tv & web ads reminding people the Rossi record includes a strong defense of Boeing, and the Murray record includes the disaster called Obamacare. So we're in the fight now to win!
Posted by: Rossifarian Spy on September 24, 2010 10:21 AMAnd we have a senator that is in this for the career and not for the improvement of WA or the nation as a whole. Murray has continually walked lock step with Obama and backed wild economic promises that we will never be able to keep. Promises that particularly hurt largely indebted states like WA.
I'm not a huge Rossi fan, to me he is not all that inspiring, but almost anyone would be an improvement over Murray. And even though this isn't saying much, he certainly has a lot more charisma than Murray.
Posted by: Jeff B. on September 24, 2010 10:26 AMCommies 'R Us.
Commies Commies Commies.
Even Sharron Angle was able to mount an effective debate and probably got the better of Harry Reid (who was pre-tapped). At this time, I give Angle a better chance against Reid than Rossi against Murray. I'd like to be proven wrong, but that is up to Sir Dino.
Posted by: KDS on September 24, 2010 12:16 PMWE CAN WIN THIS! DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?!?
Posted by: Rossifarian Spy on September 24, 2010 12:36 PMIn the primaries, Patty's numbers were way down in Pierce and Snohomish County. If Rossi makes big dents there he will be able to win the race. Snohomish County is the one that I'm banking will back Rossi big time.
Posted by: Cindy on September 24, 2010 02:13 PMIt works.
Dino is Pal a Mine.
Posted by: John Bailo on September 24, 2010 06:01 PMBy the way, where's Dave? (Reichert, I mean.) Speculation is that his head injury had more of an effect than he is admitting.
Posted by: wayne on September 24, 2010 06:34 PMIf it's not close, they can't cheat.
Posted by: Matt M. on September 25, 2010 01:42 AMI do wish that Rossi would stop coming across as Mr. Rogers in his ads. Myself and most of my friends are very upset with what is going on in D.C. We want a Senator that is ready to stand toe to toe with party bosses and do what is right.
Rossi needs to show that he has some backbone or I think he will loose this fight.
Posted by: Vince on September 25, 2010 09:31 AMAnd backbone?
Don't confuse decency with cowardice. It takes real backbone to come back against a communist machine when they steal an election from you.
Had Murray lost an election in the same nefarious way to criminals like her, she would run and hide.
Besides, why obstruct the obnoxious Democrats when they are doing a fine job of destroying themselves. Even liberals are embarrassed by Murray.
While some Murray supporters hope and pray that the tactics (lies, misdirection, blame Bush) they used in 08 will put her over the top, they won't.
The Rossi campaign is doing things that will answer all of your questions and satisfy all sane people's wishes, and Rossi will win by a margin of 18 points.
Posted by: Amused by Liberals on September 25, 2010 10:36 AMThe voters want issues addressed. The fact that Dino Rossi swept up at the Space Needle and he touts it in his ads only shows voters he is clueless.
I think it may already be too late for Rossi. Ironically, Murray accused him of doing what SHE did. It was MURRAY who bailed out the big corporations (Wallstreet Banks and Government Motors) yet she runs ads saying that somehow Rossi, who isn't even a senator, did all that.
What is Rossi's response? "I swept up at the Space Needle". Ok Dino, so you got the labotomy demo all nailed down. Let's mark 10 votes for Rossi in our column.
Rossi will win.
Democrats are self absorbed people who do not follow anything. For them all they know is they were told Democrat=Good, Republican = Bad. I know, I was one, I grew up in the full indoctrination. The only thing that rescued me from it was 9/11 and the Democrats blaming of this country for the attacks. Nowadays they try to convince people that America was the one that perpetrated the attacks.
So I fully understand the depths of how the Democrat mind works. And if you think for one second they are going to respond to anything other than a dirty, mean , nasty, knock down, drag out fight, you have rocks in your head.
I do so hope I am wrong and Rossi wins. But this is like watching a car accident in slow motion over and over and you want to shout to the drivers to STOP to avoid the crash, but it just keeps happening. I've got 18 years of Murray domination to back me up.
Posted by: pbj on September 25, 2010 03:34 PMScoop is rolling over in his grave with a Dem like that representing the state.
Posted by: FlyGuy on September 26, 2010 11:41 AMRight. But the TRUTH about Murray and her senate is not an indulgence nor does telling it make him any less decent.
He needs to stop hinting and start using the truth more boldly and more effectively.
He needs to stop with his rehearsed answers and to effectively respond to her rehearsed answers.
I watched two newspaper editorial 'debates' and I could have followed along in the second with a transcript of the first. Murray expects that. She memorizes well. He needs to change it up and get her defending her lefty positions and reacting to his common sense solutions.
This is not the year for pat answers and slogan debates.
Posted by: RagnarDanneskjold on September 26, 2010 12:12 PMCA - Whitman is trailing Brown, she lead just a week ago
CA - Boxer has now blown the race open, Fiorona is done
WA - Rossi had just come close, but now it's over.
NV - Angle had tied Reid just days ago, but now Reid is ahead again
what is wrong about the West? A bunch of kool-aid drinkers. What do they get in Michigan/OHio/Pennsylvania that they don't here?
Posted by: Crusader on September 26, 2010 12:18 PMLay into Murray for supporting Porkulus.
Lay into Murray for supporting Obamacare.
Lay into Murray for supporting policies which have quadrupled our debt, stealing from our children and grandchildren.
Lay into Murray for being a reliable, liberal vote for every obnoxious Democrat spending spree. She is the ultimate tax and spend liberal.
Remind people of it.
They cackled when Bambi hope and change was elected.
How's that hope and change working out?
New lowest approval ratings - again.
Also the likes of John Kerry telling us were too stupid to appreciate Democrats doesn't help, especially when it is so eerily reminiscent of Patty Murray telling us the same thing on the front page of the Seattle Times, nor does lend them any credibility Steny Hoyer answers every single question that Chris Wallace asked him with 'blame the GOP!".
Americans are tolerant of the political class; we want to give them a chance and the benefit of the doubt (hence the election of no experience Obama) but we don't tolerate being ignored nor spoken to as if we are idiots that just need to open our wallets and shut our mouths.
...And that's the message Rossi needs to send
Posted by: RagnarDanneskjold on September 26, 2010 03:06 PMHowever, under Murray's watch, Boeing moved it's headquarters to Illinois and opened assembly lines in another state. Boeing thanked both state delegations for all their support in making the moves successful.
The state delegation Boeing didn't thank was Washington's. Where was Murray then?
Though I think the tanker deal should belong to Boeing, part of the Murray deception is that the EADS/Grumman tankers wouldn't be built in America. Murray must feel that Alabama or Louisiana isn't part of the United States.
Where was Murray when Boeing was leaving Washington? Oh yeah, it wasn't an election year.
Posted by: SouthernRoots on September 26, 2010 06:07 PMRossi doesn't want to win. He was put into this race to ensure that the apartisan political power brokers in Washington State didn't lose the influence that Patty Murray's seniority brings with it.
Look they lost the influence of a Speaker of the House in 1994. You think they were going to allow anything like that to happen again? Or even to have the chance of anything like that happen again?
Look at the people who brought Rossi into the race. Would it really be in their best personal interests if Murray was defeated? Of course not.
Wake up and start thinking maturely like the big boys (and now women) in the smoked filled rooms do. It saves you from wandering around wondering what happened when it all goes down.
Posted by: CnR on September 26, 2010 07:43 PMYou don't have to. At least here this is exactly what it says it is. They don't want to lose her seniority. They said it quite clearly.
A lot of people in Washington State don't want to lose her seniority. A lot of people who put a lot, lot. less importance upon partisanship than the people here do (than even I do).
All you have to do is look at the people who encouraged Rossi to get into the race to see who I am talking about.
Rossi has served his purpose. And that purpose was never to defeat Murray.
Posted by: CnR on September 26, 2010 07:49 PMMurray and Cantwell each do what amounts to nothing for five years and then do the same during the sixth. The only difference is during the sixth (election) year the local media groupies acknowledge, record, broadcast and worship their every move.
Half-wit incompetents are a good fit to represent this state in the other Washington, being as a majority of the state's voters fit that same description.
Posted by: Saltherring on September 26, 2010 09:08 PMRegardless of what the liberals at the Seattle Times, the local broadcast media or agit-prop commies from HA or the DNC would have me do....I WILL vote on the first Tuesday in November.
Rossi is my one option for unseating the liberal dip in tennis shoes. Even if the Liberals tell me Rossi is ten points behind Murray, I will vote on the first Tuesday in November.
If any of you care about the colossal debt run up by Obama and his band of merry tax and spend liberals (including Murray, Cantwell and the rest of the democrats in our states congressional delegation), vote for Dino Rossi.
Throw a monkey wrench at the tax and spend liberals by ham-stringing (unfortunately, for only two years) their ability to raise taxes, ending the state liquor store freebie for organized labor, restore sales tax exempt status for candy, privatizing the DLI and voting down the democrats attempted smash and grab income tax proposal.
Support candidates who are willing to FORCE government to live within its means, including reducing the size and scope of government. Support candidates who discern the difference between vital services (police, fire, EMT and corrections) and liberal pet-projects and give-aways to labor unions (such as publically funded spanish language education for the children of illegal aliens, in state college tuition rates for illegal aliens, drivers licenses and state ID cards for illegal aliens, prison law libraries, prison weight rooms, and state liquor stores and the state printing office filled with hundreds of unionized state employees).
When confronted by a liberal (Suzan Delbene for example) who will surely be a dependable leftist caucus vote for president teleprompter, vote for the candidate who will more likely oppose the tax and spend liberals. Vote for candidates who are not in the pockets of the SEIU and AFSCME, and who do not buy SEIU and AFSCME votes with our tax dollars.
Posted by: Attila on September 27, 2010 09:37 AMI will be around in November (as always) to kick the ass of anyone who tries to lash me for anything.
As to Rossi he will win and if he doesn't he will lose.
Lighten up and along with 68% of the electorate vote for Rossi.
Beautiful.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/809977/posts
Posted by: Ed on September 27, 2010 09:47 PMOnly a true moron (liberal) would conclude that she is any more than a petty liberal party hack.
She is an embarrassment to true old style Democrats and thoroughly repulsive to swing voters.
Hey Patty . . . please keep on attacking Rossi this way!!!
Rossi will win this election by 18 points.
Posted by: Amused by Liberals on September 28, 2010 10:21 AMJust remember that they are desperate to hold power and will do and say anything (including violence and property damage) to coerce anyone who gets in their way.
Fox News Poll has Rossi at 47 to Murray's 48. At this rate his 18 point lead will come easily in due course before November 2.
Hey Dino welcome aboard, . . . hey Patty . . . maybe bongo will hire you to do his laundry.
Posted by: Amused by Liberals on September 28, 2010 09:59 PMAnyway - I'm going to vote for Rossi, but he's just more of the same. Different side of the same coin. :(
Yes, I'm getting jaded.
Posted by: Andrew Brown on September 29, 2010 12:34 PM