September 24, 2010
The Murray-Rossi Race Is Close
In the latest SurveyUSA poll,
Murray leads Rossi by just 2 percent,
In an election for United States Senator from the state of Washington today, 09/22/10, incumbent
Democrat Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi finish effectively even, according to a new
SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-5 TV News in Seattle.
Today, it's Murray 50%, Rossi 48%, a result within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling
error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Murray is up 5 points; Rossi is down
4, a 9-point momentum swing to the Democrat.
There is a simple, and probably correct, explanation for Murray's gains; we have seen a barrage of
ads from her campaign, some touting her ability to bring home the pork and others, more recently,
attacking Rossi, often dishonestly. (Does Patty "no rocket scientist" Murray know her ads are
dishonest? Hard to say. But some of her handlers certainly do.)
Rossi is beginning to reply, effectively in my opinion. And there is a glimmer of hope in even
this poll: Independents are backing him 54-41. Note that the two draw almost equally
strong support from their partisans, with Republicans giving Rossi 91 percent of their vote and Democrats giving
Murray 89 percent of their vote.
Not surprisingly, Murray leads by a large margin among women and Rossi leads by an almost equally
large margin among men. If I were advising the Rossi campaign, I would suggest using more pictures
of Rossi with his family in order to reduce Murray's
advantage with women. And he should continue talking about running because he wants
a better world for that family.
Independent analysts also see this race as
extremely close. Three
of the four that Google uses for that map rate the race as a "tossup". The fourth, the Rothenberg Report,
rates the race as a
"Toss-up/tilt Democrat". (Google
chose to classify that as "lean Dem").
Washington state gave John Kerry 53 percent of the vote in 2004 and Barack Obama 58 percent of the vote
in 2008. Patty Murray, for all her faults, is a good campaigner with a big war chest, and has the almost
unanimous support of our news organizations. She has had more than two decades of favorable news
coverage, sometimes laughably favorable. (In her last run, our local journalists almost all agreed
that it was unfair for her opponent to run commercials quoting her famous Osama "day care" statement,
in context. Really.) That Dino Rossi is now this close shows just how strong the Republican
tide is nationally, and how good a candidate Rossi is.
Cross posted at
Jim Miller on Politics.
(Technical point: I am a little unhappy with the very small number of undecideds in that poll, even
allowing for the fact that Murray and Rossi are very well known here. SurveyUSA may be pushing their
respondents too hard to choose a side, for my tastes.
to avoid, if you are looking at SurveyUSA polls of Washington state. Hannan assumes that "Metro
Seattle" means King County; in fact, as SurveyUSA says quite clearly, Metro Seattle includes "Snohomish,
Pierce and King counties". The other two counties are less reactionary than King, since they don't
Posted by Jim Miller at September 24, 2010
09:52 AM | Email This
1. IMO, much will hinge on the debate(s). If Sir Dino doesn't do well in those (and by 'well', I mean soundly defeat Murray) he will be in trouble. That would be compounded by Biden and Michelle's visit(s) to this State in support of Murray. I DO agree with the 'family' aspect of the ad's...that should be heavily touted and exploited. :)
As an intel guy, let me tell ya that we're on the attack
because we got back Mary Lane Strow on the campaign. Yup, the hero who helped get fired "Governor Dean" Logan. Yup, the spine behind Dino Rossi.
The attack campaign has started this week. So far, we've shot down a Murray ad created by Doug Foote of Massachusetts (who runs their social media campaign in Murrayland) that smeared Dino Rossi called "No Wonder" because it called our man Dino Rossie among other smears. But after Julie Edwards of Oregon bullied Robert Mak several weeks ago for asking Sen. Murray about earmarks, we're not surprised at the pathetic or bordering on pathetic behaviour of out-of-state Murray campaign staffers.
We've also lobbed tv & web ads reminding people the Rossi record includes a strong defense of Boeing, and the Murray record includes the disaster called Obamacare. So we're in the fight now to win!
It's a clear choice. A vote for Murray is a vote for more of the same. Decades of Democrat control of WA that has not lead to some unrivaled prosperity compared to other states, in fact the opposite.
And we have a senator that is in this for the career and not for the improvement of WA or the nation as a whole. Murray has continually walked lock step with Obama and backed wild economic promises that we will never be able to keep. Promises that particularly hurt largely indebted states like WA.
I'm not a huge Rossi fan, to me he is not all that inspiring, but almost anyone would be an improvement over Murray. And even though this isn't saying much, he certainly has a lot more charisma than Murray.
4. Goldy makes the point that no matter what Murray keeps leading in every poll and it's more likely she's going to win by double digits then Rossi is going to win. Let's face it, WA = PacWestCommieNation
Washington State is Commie Commie Commie Commie Commie Commie land.
Commies 'R Us.
Commies Commies Commies.
6. Dino Rossi will a great boon for corruption within WA and in DC.
7. OK Dino - it's time to get agressive. Man up and show the world that we do have a viable choice to replace useless Senator Murray. She has the IQ of a tree stump and hasn't had an original thought her entire political career (unless you count the Iraqi daycare centers) You can win this thing.
8. Maybe Rossi should publicly taunt Murray about her lack of cojones. Seems to be working for Paladino!
9. The Democrats have given Dino a big opening, by choosing not to vote on extending the Bush tax cuts until after the election. Everyone's taxes are going up...and it will be the fault of the Democrats alone, including Patty Murray. That they have not been able to pass that "tax cut for the middle class" in all this time, despite having a clear majority in Congress, adds to the crime. Mary Lane Strow--do yer stuff.
10. Another 'opening' (if you will) is the allowance today of having our Congress turn into the 'The Colbert Report'; excuse me but WTF is going on in our Nation's capital. UNbelievable and UNreal! Is there no more important work to be done. :)
Rossi will have to do something out of character to win, such as campaign like Palladino. In order for him to decisively win the debates, he'll have to put on his Clint Didier face about the economy and Murray and Democratic-Marxists not adhering to the constitution.
Even Sharron Angle was able to mount an effective debate and probably got the better of Harry Reid (who was pre-tapped). At this time, I give Angle a better chance against Reid than Rossi against Murray. I'd like to be proven wrong, but that is up to Sir Dino.
12. Stephen Colbert in congress was likely a deliberate attempt by the Democratics to cover the Mr. Coates' testimony at the Black Panther trial, which is much more damaging to the White House and the Justice Dept. - but will probably escape media cover because of distraction of Colbert.
If you feel like losing faith in Dino Rossi's campaign, read this attack blast first
. Once again, Mary Lane Strow saves our bacon. Trust me, we're firing on all cylinders... especially now that our state's ace is in the fight.
WE CAN WIN THIS! DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?!?
14. Please ignore the gibberish above @6, from my institutionalized twin. He meant Patty Murray, in present tense.
15. Rossi is toast. If he doesn't show at least a 10 point lead then King County will work it's "magic" and Murray will be re-elected.
Actually, it doesn't matter if Patty leads by 10 points in King County because she also HAS to carry Pierce and Snohomish County in like amounts in order to offset her big losses east of the mountains and virtually everywhere else. Her past wins have always been predicated on pulling big numbers in these three counties. And I don't believe that winning only two of the three will work, she needs all three.... by big margins.
In the primaries, Patty's numbers were way down in Pierce and Snohomish County. If Rossi makes big dents there he will be able to win the race. Snohomish County is the one that I'm banking will back Rossi big time.
17. Is Rossi ever going to break out of his Mr. Milktoast persona?
18. Take a look at the internals on that poll: 36% Dem/25% Rep/36%Ind - If the Democrats show up at the polls this November topping the Republicans by 11% points, then in all likelihood Rossi will lose. To the contrary, though, the party breakout in the primary was close to even, and I don't think that's likely to improve much for the Dems in a year like this. Still, I'm working until November like Rossi is two points down.
19. Rossi will win by a margin of 18 points.
20. Rossi will win by a margin of 18 points.
I notice in the new TV ads Dino is going for the Luigi Look.
Dino is Pal a Mine.
SurveyUSA has a well known GOP house effect.
By the way, where's Dave? (Reichert, I mean.) Speculation is that his head injury had more of an effect than he is admitting.
23. Rossi is going to need to be up by at least 10 points to win by the slimmest of margins. The Demorats with the help of the SEUI, Acorn (what's left of it) and the rest can easily invent at least 8%-9% fraudulent votes in a low turnout year. It may take a couple or three counts but they can do it.
25. Hope you're right. The debates will be telling. This state will continue to have a bad reputation (except for derelicts) as long as Murray is in the Senate, because she is not too bright and is the most liberal senator there is.
Rossi's biggest problem is out of his control. It's not him being too polite. It's the Republican non-voters and libertarian voters that hand close elections to the democrats because the Republican is not perfecy conservative. if this election's close, Tennis Shoe Mom will win thanks to a couple thousand Didiots too dumb to remember Gregoire '04 and Franken '08.
If it's not close, they can't cheat.
27. Good Luck Murray.
28. What a great resource!
29. Patty Murray's Congress produced Colbert's testimony yesterday. Patty Murray's Congress is going to cause me to pay more for health care next year - and for some people it will be dropped. In fact, for all of her ads mugging for the camera in front of a Boeing jet - the company's workers will be less well off as a result of Obamacare. Patty Murray's Congress is going to cause my taxes to go up next year - and I don't make what she does. Patty Murray's Congress has not made my life any better and I defy anyone to say that Patty Murray's Congress is going to make my next year any better. We can stop talking about demographics and just talk about which candidate will be a better representative for their constituents.
30. I join told all above. We can communicate on this theme. Here or in email.
The authoritative answer, cognitively...
I would vote for Kermit the Frog if he was running against Murray.
I do wish that Rossi would stop coming across as Mr. Rogers in his ads. Myself and most of my friends are very upset with what is going on in D.C. We want a Senator that is ready to stand toe to toe with party bosses and do what is right.
Rossi needs to show that he has some backbone or I think he will loose this fight.
Rossi is polite because he is a decent honest leader who doesn't indulge in lies and misdirection.
Don't confuse decency with cowardice. It takes real backbone to come back against a communist machine when they steal an election from you.
Had Murray lost an election in the same nefarious way to criminals like her, she would run and hide.
Besides, why obstruct the obnoxious Democrats when they are doing a fine job of destroying themselves. Even liberals are embarrassed by Murray.
While some Murray supporters hope and pray that the tactics (lies, misdirection, blame Bush) they used in 08 will put her over the top, they won't.
The Rossi campaign is doing things that will answer all of your questions and satisfy all sane people's wishes, and Rossi will win by a margin of 18 points.
33. For those of you who feel Dino is not quite forceful enough, please remember Clark Kent. And as for Mr. Rogers, I believe I read in his biography that he was a highly decorated combat-tested Marine. He wore that sweater to cover the tattoos. Demeanor does not necessarily indicate what's at the core. And I feel confident that Dino's core is stronger, more ethical, and infinitely more experienced in fixing our fiscal mess than Patty Murray could ever even comprehend or imagine. Mainly because she doesn't have much comprehension or imagination, but there you are...
katomar @ 33 - That is all fine and good and admirable, but the average voter doesn't know about any of that. The way politics works is that if you do not address a charge made by your opponent, the undecided voters take it as fact. Rossi has let the Murray Morons define him for the past three months. No amount of Mr Rodgers likeability will overcome that.
The voters want issues addressed. The fact that Dino Rossi swept up at the Space Needle and he touts it in his ads only shows voters he is clueless.
I think it may already be too late for Rossi. Ironically, Murray accused him of doing what SHE did. It was MURRAY who bailed out the big corporations (Wallstreet Banks and Government Motors) yet she runs ads saying that somehow Rossi, who isn't even a senator, did all that.
What is Rossi's response? "I swept up at the Space Needle". Ok Dino, so you got the labotomy demo all nailed down. Let's mark 10 votes for Rossi in our column.
This election is unique.
The normal rules do not apply.
Patty Murray has played all of her cards and they are ALL lies and associative angst.
She has nothing left and no one (even most liberals) are stupid enough to believe them.
Those who are smart enough to turn away from the Obongo Democrat party (over 70%) are also smart enough to see this fact.
They watched her standing next to Obongo time and again with that blank moronic stare of hers
and they want obongo's multi-lateral imbecilities out of there and her along with them.
Rossi will win.
@35 - So will you be around on November 3rd to take your lashing if Rossi loses? Will you still be defending the Mr Rodger's folksy approach then?
Democrats are self absorbed people who do not follow anything. For them all they know is they were told Democrat=Good, Republican = Bad. I know, I was one, I grew up in the full indoctrination. The only thing that rescued me from it was 9/11 and the Democrats blaming of this country for the attacks. Nowadays they try to convince people that America was the one that perpetrated the attacks.
So I fully understand the depths of how the Democrat mind works. And if you think for one second they are going to respond to anything other than a dirty, mean , nasty, knock down, drag out fight, you have rocks in your head.
I do so hope I am wrong and Rossi wins. But this is like watching a car accident in slow motion over and over and you want to shout to the drivers to STOP to avoid the crash, but it just keeps happening. I've got 18 years of Murray domination to back me up.
37. Go Dino! Murray is part of the problem.
38. Go Murray!!! Rossi doesn't care about Boeing. He made a statement which showed that and then is backpedaling about it. It's on video tape. How do you get out of that?
39. Go Murray!!! Rossi doesn't care about Boeing. He made a statement which showed that and then is backpedaling about it. It's on video tape. How do you get out of that?
40. Get out of what? Patty Murray sells access to the U.S. Treasury in exchange for campaign donations for useless junk that nobody requested.
She is a thief and she brags about it. That's who the Karens of the world supports.
41. Patty Murray forced the U.S. Navy to buy millions in equipment they didn't even want; all to please her campaign-coffer donors. Murray isn't for the people; she's for her donors. She proves she doesn't respect taxpayers. She wants to raise taxes on small business people.
Good bye Patty; you are the problem. Starving the private sector while ballooning the public sector is not a legitimate solution.
42. Go Murray - straight into retirement. Seriously Murray, get out!
43. Half-wit Murray never saw a tax she didn't end up voting for. Send her home.
Murray is a Fascist, a Fraud, and a Traitor.
Scoop is rolling over in his grave with a Dem like that representing the state.
45. Rossi is polite because he is a decent honest leader who doesn't indulge in lies and misdirection.
Right. But the TRUTH about Murray and her senate is not an indulgence nor does telling it make him any less decent.
He needs to stop hinting and start using the truth more boldly and more effectively.
He needs to stop with his rehearsed answers and to effectively respond to her rehearsed answers.
I watched two newspaper editorial 'debates' and I could have followed along in the second with a transcript of the first. Murray expects that. She memorizes well. He needs to change it up and get her defending her lefty positions and reacting to his common sense solutions.
This is not the year for pat answers and slogan debates.
46. Now Murray is up +6.5 on the RCP average. Game over.
Obv the libs are rallying. Suddenly:
CA - Whitman is trailing Brown, she lead just a week ago
CA - Boxer has now blown the race open, Fiorona is done
WA - Rossi had just come close, but now it's over.
NV - Angle had tied Reid just days ago, but now Reid is ahead again
what is wrong about the West? A bunch of kool-aid drinkers. What do they get in Michigan/OHio/Pennsylvania that they don't here?
49. @48 - Won't make a bit of difference. Too many addled-minded pot smokers in Seattle.
50. Dino, fight back and fight hard! Patty Murray is the problem. She's trying to take the country down several notches.
Dino, fight back and fight hard.
Lay into Murray for supporting Porkulus.
Lay into Murray for supporting Obamacare.
Lay into Murray for supporting policies which have quadrupled our debt, stealing from our children and grandchildren.
Lay into Murray for being a reliable, liberal vote for every obnoxious Democrat spending spree. She is the ultimate tax and spend liberal.
Remind people of it.
52. It's hopeless. Meanwhile Goldy and his butt buddies are cackling over at Horse's Ass.
53. Meanwhile Goldy and his butt buddies are cackling over at Horse's Ass.
They cackled when Bambi hope and change was elected.
How's that hope and change working out?
New lowest approval ratings - again.
Also the likes of John Kerry telling us were too stupid to appreciate Democrats doesn't help, especially when it is so eerily reminiscent of Patty Murray telling us the same thing on the front page of the Seattle Times, nor does lend them any credibility Steny Hoyer answers every single question that Chris Wallace asked him with 'blame the GOP!".
Americans are tolerant of the political class; we want to give them a chance and the benefit of the doubt (hence the election of no experience Obama) but we don't tolerate being ignored nor spoken to as if we are idiots that just need to open our wallets and shut our mouths.
...And that's the message Rossi needs to send
54. "We don't blame ourselves for the nation's problems, Senator Kerry
[Substitute MURRAY here]. We blame you
. We're not just looking at your Party, either... or have you
not been paying attention to the primaries? We can see how much control the State has asserted over our lives through impenetrable layers of regulation, which even legislators admit they neither read nor understand. We're not just laughing off Nancy Pelosi's comment that we had to pass ObamaCare to learn what was in it. The Democrats demand we give them vast amounts of power without specifying what they plan to do with it, establishing any means to judge their success, or defining any limit to future expansion of the precedents they set today. They demand our faith, along with the resulting surrender of faith in ourselves. We reject those demands.
In a radio interview the other day, Dino made a good point. Murray has attacked him for his "lack of support" for Boeing, implying she fully supports Boeing.
However, under Murray's watch, Boeing moved it's headquarters to Illinois and opened assembly lines in another state. Boeing thanked both state delegations for all their support in making the moves successful.
The state delegation Boeing didn't thank was Washington's. Where was Murray then?
Though I think the tanker deal should belong to Boeing, part of the Murray deception is that the EADS/Grumman tankers wouldn't be built in America. Murray must feel that Alabama or Louisiana isn't part of the United States.
Where was Murray when Boeing was leaving Washington? Oh yeah, it wasn't an election year.
Boy, it seems like people here still don't get it.
Rossi doesn't want to win. He was put into this race to ensure that the apartisan political power brokers in Washington State didn't lose the influence that Patty Murray's seniority brings with it.
Look they lost the influence of a Speaker of the House in 1994. You think they were going to allow anything like that to happen again? Or even to have the chance of anything like that happen again?
Look at the people who brought Rossi into the race. Would it really be in their best personal interests if Murray was defeated? Of course not.
Wake up and start thinking maturely like the big boys (and now women) in the smoked filled rooms do. It saves you from wandering around wondering what happened when it all goes down.
Explain why the Realtors are for Murray. They usually are strong donors for Republicans.
You don't have to. At least here this is exactly what it says it is. They don't want to lose her seniority. They said it quite clearly.
A lot of people in Washington State don't want to lose her seniority. A lot of people who put a lot, lot. less importance upon partisanship than the people here do (than even I do).
All you have to do is look at the people who encouraged Rossi to get into the race to see who I am talking about.
Rossi has served his purpose. And that purpose was never to defeat Murray.
Good point, SouthernRoots,
Murray and Cantwell each do what amounts to nothing for five years and then do the same during the sixth. The only difference is during the sixth (election) year the local media groupies acknowledge, record, broadcast and worship their every move.
Half-wit incompetents are a good fit to represent this state in the other Washington, being as a majority of the state's voters fit that same description.
Guess they're already starting to hide votes behind the radiator.
60. I guess the populace needs to stand in a soup line for a couple decades before they get it because thats where were headed. Unfortunately,
that seems to be what the liberal elite is striving for. Why, I have no idea.
61. I think it's despicable using the Boeing issue as a political point. Government should not be giving bribes to companies to stay.
Have more faith in the people of Washington State.
Regardless of what the liberals at the Seattle Times, the local broadcast media or agit-prop commies from HA or the DNC would have me do....I WILL vote on the first Tuesday in November.
Rossi is my one option for unseating the liberal dip in tennis shoes. Even if the Liberals tell me Rossi is ten points behind Murray, I will vote on the first Tuesday in November.
If any of you care about the colossal debt run up by Obama and his band of merry tax and spend liberals (including Murray, Cantwell and the rest of the democrats in our states congressional delegation), vote for Dino Rossi.
Throw a monkey wrench at the tax and spend liberals by ham-stringing (unfortunately, for only two years) their ability to raise taxes, ending the state liquor store freebie for organized labor, restore sales tax exempt status for candy, privatizing the DLI and voting down the democrats attempted smash and grab income tax proposal.
Support candidates who are willing to FORCE government to live within its means, including reducing the size and scope of government. Support candidates who discern the difference between vital services (police, fire, EMT and corrections) and liberal pet-projects and give-aways to labor unions (such as publically funded spanish language education for the children of illegal aliens, in state college tuition rates for illegal aliens, drivers licenses and state ID cards for illegal aliens, prison law libraries, prison weight rooms, and state liquor stores and the state printing office filled with hundreds of unionized state employees).
When confronted by a liberal (Suzan Delbene for example) who will surely be a dependable leftist caucus vote for president teleprompter, vote for the candidate who will more likely oppose the tax and spend liberals. Vote for candidates who are not in the pockets of the SEIU and AFSCME, and who do not buy SEIU and AFSCME votes with our tax dollars.
PBJ @ 36,
I will be around in November (as always) to kick the ass of anyone who tries to lash me for anything.
As to Rossi he will win and if he doesn't he will lose.
Lighten up and along with 68% of the electorate vote for Rossi.
64. While i do wish that Dino would have come out with this most recent ad sooner, I wonder how many want 6 more years of Patty Cakes?!the anionted one's favorite rubber stamp!!I don't belive this will change unless she is gone!
Lest we ever forget what a brilliant Senator we have in Patty Murray.
For those of you who doubt the size of fight in Dino... this is your answer
! Make sure this flies around the WWW, shows up in a few cubicles and back windows of cars because Dino's gonna take the fight to the Democrats!
68. I recieved a letter from friends of Patty Murray. They were asking me for my vote. I am confused about a couple of things. First, how did they get my address? The last e-mail I sent her I gave my old address. Second, the letter was trying me to get me to vote for Patty Murray because I am a vet. How did they know this? I never told her or anyone in her campaign. The only way I can think of is they invaded my privacy.
69. Just got an update on fox news this morning courtesy of Larry Sabato race breaks down as follows Murray at 48% Rossi at 47% ouch!! Looks as though Patty Cakes took a 2 point hit recently!I hope this continues!
Murray's latest ad was wonderful!
Only a true moron (liberal) would conclude that she is any more than a petty liberal party hack.
She is an embarrassment to true old style Democrats and thoroughly repulsive to swing voters.
Hey Patty . . . please keep on attacking Rossi this way!!!
Rossi will win this election by 18 points.
71. RenDawg: Have been reading news reports about the Murray Campaign contacting someone in Work Force - a branch of WA State Employment and asking them to help by contacting their Vets and asking them to vote for Murray. The woman at Work Force that was contacted sent out e-mails, and from what you say, possibly even gave addresses to the Murray campaign of veterans so they could send out letters. There is an ongoing investigation into this matter, as campaign laws, if the actions were depicted accurately, were obviously broken, and someone will be going down.
72. At the UW, Obama supporters proudly post their Obama posters/ bumper stickeres in the workplace.
They also used their office windows to post anti-war posters and signs.
Leftist, unionized government employees will often behave in a loathsome fashion.
73. Got a call tonight from Planned Parenthood on behalf of Patty Murray, asking for my support. I was actually giggling as I told them I was voting for Dino Rossi, and I wasn't a fan of Planned Parenthood either. Big, long silence on the other end. The poor young thing actually seemed stunned. I think she expected that a female voter would HAVE to be for Patty and Planned Parenthood. What a hoot!
The silly bald faced lying defiant arrogance from the left is going to get even more unbearable as we approach election day.
Everything good is Bongo, everything bad Bush and so on.
Just remember that they are desperate to hold power and will do and say anything (including violence and property damage) to coerce anyone who gets in their way.
Fox News Poll has Rossi at 47 to Murray's 48. At this rate his 18 point lead will come easily in due course before November 2.
Hey Dino welcome aboard, . . . hey Patty . . . maybe bongo will hire you to do his laundry.
75. Katomar: I never heard of WorkForce. I never gave them any of my info. I never gave them the O.K. to give it out. What is going on here?
Just for the record, a quick google on the subject suggests that the story of Mr. Rogers being a Marine Sniper in Vietnam (or Korea, in alternative versions) is an urban legend.
Anyway - I'm going to vote for Rossi, but he's just more of the same. Different side of the same coin. :(
Yes, I'm getting jaded.