October 14, 2009
That's the latest poll result in the Hutchison-Constantine county executive race.
The sample is smaller than I would like, just 523 likely voters, but that is partly because turnout
will be, almost certainly, lower than it was last year.
Swing voters may be deciding that Dow Constantine and Ron Sims were not great successes at governing
King County. Conservatives may be energized by national, and even international, events.
On the other hand, I expect the public employees unions to be working very hard for Constantine.
This could be one of those unusual elections where a better get-out-our-vote operation provides
the winning edge.
Posted by Jim Miller at October 14, 2009
08:15 AM | Email This
1. Susan Hutch is class...(IMO),she will win hands-down. :)
Didn't the pre-primary polls by King 5/Survey USA overstate Hutchinson's support by several percent? They had her at 38%-40%, as I recall, and she ended up with 33% in the primary. Also, practically all of the undecideds in their pre-primary poll (around 20%) ended up going with one of the four Democratic candidates.
Still, a 47-42 lead is certainly a lead, and this has been pretty consistent in their pre-general polls. It will definitely be an interesting horse race.
It will be interesting to see if the people of King County want better government. I am surprised that Constantine is doing as good as he is as he has been part of the problem. He can't just walk away from monsters like the CAO.
Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic but I think that Susan needs more that 5 points to win this. KC elections can find more than enough fraudulent votes to cover that margin.
4. The sample is smaller than I would like, just 523 likely voters, but that is partly because turnout will be, almost certainly, lower than it was last year.
That really doesn't make up for a low sample size. :/
5. In voter turnout...Let's hope that the Liberal side of the aisle is marked by complacency and the Conservative side of the aisle is marked by urgency.
6. Are either of them proposing permanently cutting any county agencies, departments, or programs?
7. Are either of them proposing permanently cutting any county agencies, departments, or programs?
8. Are either of them proposing permanently cutting any county agencies, departments, or programs?
9. Geez Lysander we got the point the second time.
As for the count, you go girl!
Lysander @ 6,7 & 8:
I believe that she has, in a round about phrasing, said that cutting wasn't out of the question.
I think that the more accurate description would be that it is pretty much a given that Dow wouldn't do one scintilla of cutting as he has been in on the unprecedented the build-up we have now. Like I have said before, he's a large part of the problem. At least with Hutchinson, even if she hasn't said anything specifically, there is a real possibility of cuts.
Sorry for the multiple posts. I Click only once but the site does that from certain computers I use.
If all it is a comment saying they would be willing to cut with no specifics then I have to assume they are not serious about it. I am not going to vote for someone just because they might be better than another. I will only vote for people that will cut the scope of our governments.
12. Susan's campaign is certainly welcoming GOTV callers for their campaign. I made some calls in '08 with several other people the night before election day and the payoff came on election day and beyond when more than a couple republicans came from behind to win their races with the mailed ballots. Go, Susan!
13. Miller: you can't even spell her name correctly- it's Hutchison not Hutchinson. If you weren't so boring you'd be dangerous
14. No matter who wins, they will inherit a mess. The victory euphoria will last one night. Then the reality of the disaster left by Sims will become apparent to the winner.
15. Bingo @ 13: Good point. I copied Miller's incorrect spelling in my post @ 5. Hutchison should be thankful that her supporters don't have to spell her name correctly in order to vote for her :)
16. Bingo - Thanks for catching that spelling mistake. I've corrected it.
17. I wonder if Dow Constantine would welcome an endorsement from Ron Sims?