September 10, 2009
Is Brian Baird Vulnerable Next Year?

Isaac Wood and Larry Sabato already have a list of vulnerable House Democrats, and our own Brian Baird is on it.  Wood and Sabato think that Baird is likely to retain his seat, but only likely.

Insulting some of his voters, as he did recently, probably didn't help him in the district.

(According to one of the tables, Obama won the district last year with 52 percent of the vote.   George W. Bush won the district in 2000, with 48 percent of the vote, and in 2004, with 50 percent of the vote.)

Posted by Jim Miller at September 10, 2009 02:32 PM | Email This
Comments
1. It is totally up to the Republicans.

They run an ole time RINO career politician Reichert type against him and, no, Baird is pretty safe indeed.

But run a reform minded person and the district that gave us Linda Smith will rise again.

Posted by: Steve on September 10, 2009 02:46 PM
2. Baird won by 64%, 70% in the last two elections.


Posted by: Andy on September 10, 2009 03:10 PM
3. Yah, a career politician like Reichert. Who hadn't served in an expressly political position till he was 54 years old, and hadn't served in ANY even remotely political capacity (Sheriff) till he was 47. :rolls eyes:

Really, you'd think the anti-Reichert people's insults would at least make sense.

Anyhow, it depends on if we have a good candidate, and the kind of bomb-thrower Steve probably wants won't cut it. It'll take someone with experience and connections.

I wonder if Linda Smith wants back in...

Posted by: Cliff on September 10, 2009 03:12 PM
4. If you Neo-cons keep running the same dolts as you have in the past, I'd say any Dem in Washington ain't gonna have much trouble getting re-elected.

You all need to return to the concepts of small government, low taxes, personal freedom, and staying the heck out of useless foreign adventures. Oh yeah, you need to renounce crony capitalism, too!

Posted by: Politically Incorrect on September 10, 2009 03:23 PM
5. Given Cliff's comments, no, the Washington State Democrats have nothing to worry about because the Leftist Republicans who control the Republican party with an iron fist will shoot themselves in the foot.

The whole "tea party" energy won't be seen when it comes to political candidates. Already you hear the call from the leaders of the "tea party" movement that the problem comes from both parties. They will look at the bunch of losers that the Repugs are going to bring out and are going to decide to sit this one out.

Next year will be a year where there will be lots of noise but in the end the crappy candidates that the RINOS will find will be their own undoing.

But then again, I thought President McCain was going to lose last year and I also thought Senator McGavick wasn't going to win. So I haven't been a good judge of political outcomes in the past.

Posted by: Steve on September 10, 2009 03:27 PM
6. So long as we keep putting people with D's and R's in office we are screwed.

The only difference in the two is who they pander too. It is all about grabbing power.

When a candidate comes up that truly believes in the Constitution and protecting it I will vote for them. I have not seen one in my lifetime that had a D or R at the end of their name.

Once we handed the Senate over to the political parties the interests of the individual states was lost. We send people to D.C. to be indoctrinated into a system that only looks out for the parties.

2010 should be the year that both parties loose seats to those with a clue. For anyone who thinks that a third party is powerless really needs to look at the numbers. A handful of people would hold all the power. They would have to be on board for any controversial legislation to pass. A strong believe in the Constitution is needed.

Know anyone who will run?

Posted by: Vince on September 10, 2009 04:40 PM
7. I sure hope so, and if the sentiment at the town meetings is any indication, yes he definitely is.

His legislation is anti God, and anti American.

He voted to give perverts special protection in the hate crime bill.

He voted for the tax on energy that is the Cap and Trade Bill.

He supports card check, to allow union thugs to harass union members at union elections.

Baird needs to go, but the Republicans need a candidate. I'm not so sure any in the ring right now can do the job.

Posted by: joebandmember on September 10, 2009 04:58 PM
8. It depends, if there is a voter backlash like there was in '08 when Obama carried most D's to victory up and down the ticket, then any Republican with a little bit of a name could win. Could someone please call Joe Zarelli and see if he would be interested. If there is the same backlash next year, only against Obama and the Dems, then Republicans can win up and down the ticket all across the country.

Posted by: Doug on September 10, 2009 05:57 PM
9. If the Health Care bill passes with the public option, then Baird is vulnerable, because he would likely vote for it. A cataclysmic event like that could change the entire landscape and he will probably lose to someone like Zareilli. If a healthcare reform without any more Government control passes or doesn't, Baird will probably be safe.

If I had to predict, Baird won't be resting much between now and next November.

Posted by: KDS on September 10, 2009 06:57 PM
10. After insulting us, then having the last town hall meeting, which seemed like a sham, I can tell you that this is one person who did vote for Baird last election because he voted for the surge inspite of his party. Did you know that Baird gets 85% of his contributions from PAC's, more than ANY other Representative in Washington State. It appears Baird is the one working for special interest groups. I learned my lesson though, he'll never get another of my votes.

Posted by: Pete on September 10, 2009 07:29 PM
11. Cook Political Report moved this seat from "Strong Dem" to "Leans Dem" on Sept 3. And Politico.com put Baird on it's "recess casualty list." So yes, it's fair to say the right is resurgent in the 3rd C.D.

Posted by: d-child on September 10, 2009 07:59 PM
12. Baird was also a supporter of I-676, which would have created a State license to own a handgun in WA.

He has proven time and time again, in Congress, that he is no friend of gun owners.

Posted by: JoeBandMember on September 10, 2009 08:41 PM
13. It's hard to say, right now. Baird has managed to activate thousands who otherwise would have stayed out of it like I have for the last 4 cycles.

But when the moron representing me in congress calls me a Nazi and a Brown shirt because I'm smart enough to disagree with his messiah on yet another of his socialist programs... then I'm all in.

And I'm not alone, I'm thinkin'.

Posted by: Hinton on September 10, 2009 10:49 PM
14. It would be nice to see Linda Smith get back in the game.

Posted by: travis t on September 10, 2009 11:09 PM
15. I wholeheartedly agree with the above posters who have lost all faith in the Republican Party. Check out "opensecrets.org" and you'll find Repubs, for the most part, are owned by the same corporations, law firms and lobbyists as the Democrats. There are some differences on social issues (healthcare, abortion, pervert rights, etc) but little difference on economic policy and taxation.

I agree with Hinton. I'll vote when Repubs get a clue or when a third party that represents taxpayers and believes in the Constitution emerges. No more McCains!

Posted by: Saltherring on September 11, 2009 07:51 AM
16. Odd that neither Jim nor anyone posting here mentions that Republicans have a very credible candidate in the 3rd in David Castillo.

Posted by: ram on September 11, 2009 09:25 AM
17. I've voted for Baird in the past. Never again. I listened in to the beginning of one of his phone-in 'town halls' that he arranged after he insulted us. He was rude and condescending and was more into telling us what he wanted to do, rather than listening to our concerns. Time for him to go.

Posted by: Starboardelm on September 11, 2009 12:49 PM
18. I've voted for Baird in the past. Never again. I listened in to the beginning of one of his phone-in 'town halls' that he arranged after he insulted us. He was rude and condescending and was more into telling us what he wanted to do, rather than listening to our concerns. Time for him to go.

Posted by: Starboardelm on September 11, 2009 12:49 PM
19. I would think that if Obamacare is forced down our throats as it sounds like Pelosi and Reid are getting ready to do, that any republican with a pulse should be able to unseat any democrat except Baghdad Jim. Brain dead zombies of Seattle keep pulling the lever for him...

Posted by: scott on September 11, 2009 01:02 PM
20. David Hedrick...the young Marine who confronted Baird at the town hall meeting, is considering running

Posted by: Susu on September 11, 2009 02:23 PM
21. Brian Baird is an expert in paying for health care.

He can quit government, open an insurance company and run all of the greedy providers out of business because HE knows how to do it w/out screwing consumers.

Let's see how well he can win consumers w/out a gun in his hand.

Posted by: Andy on September 11, 2009 02:30 PM
22. Sounds like the consesus is we need a Ron Paul Republican to run in that district. Judging by Pauls performance in the Caucuses in Clark County I think a RP republican would do quite well.

Count on the GOP leadership to fight hard to not let a Ron Paul type candidate win the primary.

Posted by: Lysander on September 11, 2009 10:18 PM
23. Lysander, we had a Ron Paul Republicon running against Baird last election, that's exactly why Baird won.

Posted by: Pete on September 12, 2009 04:52 AM
24. Saltherring, "opensecrets.org" is a good site. I believe if you look at Washington's political people you'll find that Democrats take far more money than Republicans do from 'special interest' groups, meaning PACS, etc. That means that the Republicans work for the people in their districts more so than Democrats do, You can't dispute facts like these.

Posted by: Pete on September 12, 2009 05:00 AM
25. Count on the GOP leadership to fight hard to not let a Ron Paul type candidate win the primary.

I don't know about the GOP leadership, but you can count on me to do so.

Not only are they unelectable, but they are also worse then Democrats.

I've never voted for a Democrat for national office in my life. And if it came down to voting for a Ron Paul clone or a Hillary Clinton clone for national office, I'd vote for Hillary in a heartbeat. At least Hillary isn't an isolationist who thinks 9/11 was our problem. Oh, and she's also not a goldbug.

Posted by: Cliff on September 12, 2009 08:25 AM
26. Here in the South end of the district, Baird is vulnerable. Whether that will translate out to enough votes remains to be seen.

As was already stated, there is a strong candidate to run against him, David Castillo.

Another point to drive home to voters, in 1996 Baird completed a survey stating he supported term limits of 12 years.

2010 is his 12th year.

But, do check out Castillo, http://www.castilloforcongress.com/

Posted by: Lew Waters on September 12, 2009 09:27 AM
27. Cliff,

You're an idiot.

Posted by: Ron Paul Clone on September 12, 2009 09:47 AM
28. RPC,

I'll take that as a compliment.

Posted by: Cliff on September 12, 2009 10:56 AM
29. Cliff,

"You could not accept conservatism until you had “neo’d” it." The R's are nothing different from the D's because of people like you. The ship is sinking, run along to your lifeboat now.

Posted by: RPC on September 12, 2009 12:03 PM
30. Whatever. I don't really give a crap. If a political movement likes John Calhoun more then Henry Jackson, I don't want to be a part of it.

Oh, Reagan was a "neocon" by the way. I'll take him over your lunatic any day.

Posted by: Cliff on September 12, 2009 12:25 PM
31. 1. Please stop the name calling. I don't want to close the post, and I don't want to spend a nice afternoon deleting ad hominem arguments.

2. If you want to see some data on how well the Republicans are doing currently, take a look at this graph. (I update the graph once a month, by the way.)

Posted by: Jim Miller on September 12, 2009 01:05 PM
32. Sorry Jim. It just bugs me when people don't know the difference between isolationist and non-interventionalist. I am a disabled veteran and I know what war is like all too well. I've seen young men die, I've been to several funerals the last few years. How much american blood is it worth? I believe in rule of law and the U.S. Constitution, a document I swore to defend against all enemies foreign and domestic. Cliff also doesen't know about "blowback" as written by our own C.I.A. Our actions are making us more at risk. By the way, most of the 9/11 hijackers are from Saudi. How do we protect ourselves? The government doubled student visas from Saudi Arabia after 09/11/2001. Does that make sense to you? The war in Iraq was UNdeclared, why are we still there? I believe we need to bring the troops home and protect our own boaders from free-loading illegal aliens. Our troops deserve it anyway. No one should EVER be away from their family for a year. I've seen so many failed relationships because of the seperation. Do you know what that does to morale? I don't really think those are "lunetic" ideas, do you?

~Liberty and justice for all

Posted by: RPC on September 12, 2009 04:28 PM
33. Seems like these polls have been taken way too early. First off, the health care debacle has not been settled. This could have a profound affect on the outcome of 2010 elections.

Sabato is a good prognosticator, but I won't pay much attention to his polls until early next year after Obamacare has been transformed and Cap and Tax either has a stake through its heart or is still breathing.

Posted by: KDS on September 12, 2009 07:54 PM
34. It just bugs me when people don't know the difference between isolationist and non-interventionalist.

The difference is only in Ron Paul's mind. In the real world, the difference is irrelevant.

The fact that you instantly start talking about "blowback" is hysterical. Hope you have fun hating black people with Lew Rockwell.

Posted by: Cliff on September 13, 2009 12:35 PM
35. You can lead a neo-con to logic, but you can't make them think.

Posted by: RPC on September 13, 2009 01:08 PM
36. isolationist n. A national policy of abstaining from political and economic relations with other countries.

noninterventionalist n. abstention by a nation from interference in the affairs of other nations or in those of its own political subdivisions.

BIG difference there. Can you muster the intellegence to see it? I didn't "instantly" bring up "blowback". there were a few sentences that I opened with before I mentioned it. Did you read the 9/11 Commission Report? It talks about "blowback" in there as a cause. In all of this, I don't get how you figure I'm a racist. That just shows how unintelligible you really are.

Posted by: RPC on September 13, 2009 03:07 PM
37. I didn't say you are a racist, I said have fun hanging out with Lew Rockwell, Ron Paul's former Chief of Staff, who is an unrepentant racist and barely even pretends not to be.

And I admitted there is a semantic difference. I merely said, again, that in real world policy, the difference is meaningless. And it still is.

Of course "blowback" exists. Duh. So what? Saying we should be "non-interventionists" because we might get "blowback" is like saying you shouldn't invest money because you might lose it. DUH. That merely means you should invest wisely.

Posted by: Cliff on September 13, 2009 05:46 PM
38. Keep underestimating conservatives, all you libs out there. Support that commie-care and porkulus and freeing terrorists. See ya in 2010.

Posted by: scott on September 14, 2009 09:13 AM
39. You didn't directly say I was a racist. You didn't say "have fun hanging out with Lew Rockwell" either Cliff. You said "Hope you have fun hating black people with Lew Rockwell." That is pretty much the same as saying I'm racist. Here is a quote from McCain ~"I hated the gooks. I will hate them as long as I live." In your logic, does that mean all McCain supporters hate "the gooks" and are racist too?

Did you really use investment banking as an analogy for war? :slaps forehead: That is the most rediculous thing I have ever heard! War is not conservative. It doesn't conserve life. It doesn't conserve money. It doesn't conserve resources. It doesn't conserve liberty. It doesn't conserve safty. We barrow $10 billion from China, give it to Musharraf who is a dictator that overthrew an elected government, to help us capture Osama. I wonder how hard he is laughing at us right now. Osama is probably hanging out with Musharraf in Pakistan if he isn't already dead. Do you see the logic in any of this Cliff? In investment banking you lose money. In war, whether you claim victory or not, you lose life, money, resources, liberty and safty. What is left to gain Cliff? Who is next? Pakistan? Iran? North Korea? We can't even afford Iraq and Afghanistan! Where are you going to invest other peoples lives and other countries monies next Cliff? Do you really think we have "invested wisely" so far?

Posted by: RPC on September 14, 2009 03:37 PM
40. It figures you couldn't give me an answer. I won't go to your link either Cliff. You have shown your lack of intellegence, now go crawl back under that rock in the mud.

Posted by: RPC on September 15, 2009 11:56 AM
41. Hmmmm. Why did you remove your link Cliff? What was it? Did the moderators do that?

Posted by: RPC on September 15, 2009 02:53 PM
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