The Seattle Times editorial board seems to speak for much of our local, center-left Establishment in expressing befuddlement at the fate of cap & trade legislation thus far in the 2009 legislative session. They surmise:
If the Legislature, with the acquiescence of Gregoire, has lost faith in the concept of controlling greenhouse-gas emissions, admit it. If everyone is spooked by the economy, say so. If a credible argument can be made that more time is needed to create an administrative template for the market-based cap-and-trade plan and acquaint industry with it, please say so.
The truth may be a little less simple. Consider this:
1) Despite the zeal of environmentalists, cap & trade hasn't worked at all as promised in Europe. Real questions about its effectiveness both in terms of environmental effectiveness and economic impact have arisen. Smart Democrats in Olympia recognize this.
2) Even ignoring point #1, though especially if one doesn't, is now really the best time for legislation that will have a truly painful economic cost? As businesses and utilities make clear the degree to which "tax & trade" will actually be passed on to their customers, the economic impact becomes clear. That, and never doubt how quickly a populace can sour on elected officials when they are perceived as even partially responsible for skyrocketing energy bills (see Davis, Gray).
3) If the right people in Olympia understand points #1 and #2, how then to manage the expectations of the highly vocal environmentalist community? Pass highly watered down legislation, don't say much about it, and leave the likes of the Seattle Times asking questions. It's the least problematic way to mitigate the backlash from that powerful constituency on the left.
All the above are this blogger's educated guesses at the thinking of others, but there is more than a little plausibility to them.
References: the House legislation that died in that Chamber, even after being watered down to studies rather than action. The Senate bill, which remains alive but that relies on voluntary compliance (meaning there is no way it will mean anything, because all the evil carbon emitters environmentalists want to target will choose not to take part).
UPDATE: comments closed due to spam.
Posted by Eric Earling at March 15, 2009 06:04 PM | Email ThisShe also admitted that unless the world goes to cap and trade, all we are doing is destroying our local businesses.
It was highly refreshing to hear such common sense and honesty. I'm not a Democrat, but Clibborn and Fred Jarrett reassured me. They know there are big cuts to come, and didn't give false promises to those asking for adult and developmental health care to be spared.
I just hope there isn't a secret tax proposal coming out of all this. No one asked about it.
Posted by: Janet s on March 15, 2009 06:49 PMMeanwhile: The 2nd International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC) that just wrapped up in NYC had a large number of excellent presentations. A huge amount of information has already been posted (over 300 MBytes), with more yet to come. For audio, video, PowerPoints, and PDFs from this conference see:
2009 ICCC proceedings
The "incentives" that caps "create" are called higher costs -- which are passed on to consumers.
Shouldn't they be called disincentives, since their effect is negative?
Until there are less expensive alternatives that can end our "expensive fossil-fuel dependency," we would trade one expensive source of energy for more expensive sources. (If less expensive and useful alternatives already exist, we don't need legislatively imposed disincentives to move us to use them.)
The "replacement jobs" might possibly equal the jobs eliminated by the disincentives. I've yet to see anything that would indicate the "green jobs" are anything more than spending money in a different way -- and probably more money than we now spend for energy.
Perhaps the Seattle Times editorial board understands these things, but cannot say them directly. Instead, the opinion piece mentions the state of the economy, which would only be relevant if the disincentives of "cap and trade" would harm the economy.
I suppose we have to be satisfied with the indirect implication that "cap and trade" is a bad idea because of the disincentives it uses. The Times may not be able to muster the courage to say it directly.
Posted by: Micajah on March 15, 2009 09:04 PMCarbon tax? Certainly simpler than cap & trade, but not necessarily as effective at actually reducing emissions.
International treaties that lead to worldwide cap & trade system with international markets? Certainly the ideal, but implementing the system and developing markets now will serve us well in preparation for an international system.
Wait for technology to save us? New technologies will need to play a huge role in solving the problem no matter what, but the clock is ticking. More quickly as new evidence of impacts emerges.
Do nothing? Not a good answer for anyone with children or grandchildren.
Please tell.
Posted by: Bill L on March 15, 2009 10:43 PM
And they wonder why nobody trusts them. Producing newspapers cannot possible help the Earth (the way they see it) so why don't they start by going out of business first... you know, walk the walk.
Posted by: Gary on March 16, 2009 08:30 AMI am surprised, though, that so many snowmachiners are liberals and Democrats since the nicely groomed trails are bereft of wild and crazy out-of-control riders.
Liberals and Democrats on the west side must believe this stuff. But, hey, it is great for my riding. There is less concern for unfortunate accidents right now.
I am always shocked (and I shouldn't be) at the arrogance of GW lemmings believing that puny man can reverse the forces of nature in such a big endeavor.
Posted by: swatter on March 16, 2009 09:28 AMBy the way, global hurricane activity is at a 30 year (and perhaps longer) low. How do they explain that when they insisted that hurricane activity was going to increase?
God is funny.
Posted by: Gary on March 16, 2009 09:44 AMLooks like another psycho-pervert got through on post #17.