In a contest between King County Councilmen Dow Constantine and Larry Phillips, I give the former the edge. The latter come across as the old-school, establishment candidate...even before one gets to the fact he doesn't seem to have an actual agenda besides "Larry Phillips for King County Executive."

In contrast, Constantine is already rounding up support from the younger, more progressive crowd that is an increasingly dominant force in local Democratic circles. Concurrently, Constantine is striking a populist tone of fiscal conservatism that can play well at the right moment, even in this very blue area:

"We can't ask taxpayers for more until we prove dollars are being used to deliver the best services," he said. Last year, the council cut $93 million in the 2009 budget.

"We can't be afraid to end programs that aren't working any more just because they're not working any more," he said. For instance, Constantine said, the county should get out of the business of running animal shelters. Shelter conditions have drawn intense criticism.

Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, and certainly the field is far from set in stone, but over the course of time I'd put my money on Constantine...not to say his politics are thrilling, but he already looks like a more formidable long-term candidate than Phillips.