Sound Politics: How Elections Are Won

February 10, 2009

How Elections Are Won

A worthwhile nugget, in a Chuck Todd column on some potential lessons learned by the Obama White House:

We may like to think politics is a battle of ideas and that the best idea wins out. But that's not true in most elections. Most elections are about the worst ideas losing, not the best ideas winning. Democrats have control of both houses of Congress and the White House because the country got fed up with the Republican rule, not necessarily because voters saw more merit in the Democrats. Eventually our country rewards the party out of power - those seen as not responsible.

That holds particularly true in competitive political environments such as national elections, swing district races, and the like. Not understanding such lessons is why people on both sides of the aisle are guilty of over-reaching after electoral victories. Now, it is that reality, plus the beginnings of a revitalized, forward-looking agenda, that give the GOP hope in competitive Congressional and legislative races in 2010.

Posted by Eric Earling at February 10, 2009 03:39 PM | Email This

Comments

1. How true this is, yet we find the Republican party fighting over which faction of the conservative coalition caused the Republicans to lose the election. There is a heavy hand being pounded down on the social conservatives with some republicans saying the party should move left on social issues.

It's just a big mistake waiting to happen...The country did not move left, they just wanted a change in power.

Posted by: Doug on February 10, 2009 04:30 PM

2. You moderators are missing out on a quite a lot of fun. Obama is goofball personna and we don't get that here.

Sheesh, today Geithner gets laughed at by the Congress over his new giveaway plan and the Messiah has a townhall meeting (tickets required) where a 61 year old supposed homeless woman gets a house given to her by the Messiah. Malkin is all over this second one.

The Democrats are imploding as we write. It would be a regular hoot except lives are at stake.

Posted by: swatter on February 10, 2009 04:44 PM

3. You left something out of the story. The campaign may have been one of 'competing ideas', but those ideas were as presented to the public by a partisan supporter of just one party: the MSM.

So the Democrats were the party of pink bunnies and compassion and oh-so-human celebrities, and the Republicans were painted as the warmongering, anti-human-rights, bloodthirsty capitalist job-exporters. Incidentally, that last portrait has been in use by the MSM as a negative campaign tactic for the last six years or so, after the media's frustrations at the incorrect voting by citizens in the 2000 and 2004 elections.

So even if the Republicans had had any competitive ideas (the inarticulate President Bush was no help, and the Party is out of gas), they'd have been cartooned into monsters regardless.

All isn't lost - the Democrats have clearly exposed their raw greed for power and loot in the last three weeks, and have shown no particular leadership in foreign nor domestic affairs. As soon as ACORN comes down your block with their 'organizing' cadres, you will be given the idea what the program is supposed to be for the foreseeable future. A bit of caution will be worth much, and those with some basic principles like the US Constitution ('a republic, if you can keep it') can make a good start at demonstrating there's an end to resources if they're simply confiscated from your neighbors.

Posted by: Insufficiently Sensitive on February 10, 2009 05:23 PM

4. I think you have it exactly right IS.

If we had lost in a battle of "competing ideas" that would be one thing. The media won't ever allow that, they are in bed with the left.

Even worse, some Republicans believe the only way to win elections is to abandon conservativism. Gee, that's worked well. So much for "competing ideas".

Posted by: Bill Cruchon on February 10, 2009 05:40 PM

5. "You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation.. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."

Dr. Adrian Rogers, 1931-2005

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on February 10, 2009 06:06 PM

6. Nope, don't buy it. Ultimately elections come down to the awareness of the electorate, and whether that awareness is based on reality, or based on the lies they've been fed by never-ending media bias and distortions. Democrats in Congress had the lowest approval rating in history, but 6 out of 10 Obama voters didn't even know which party controlled Congress. The economy was tanking, and again, the media had completely failed to spell out to the American people why it was happening. Instead, they became the primary cheerleader for the candidate whose party had spend decades undermining the credit industry and obstructing even the most basic reforms.

Political scientists can apply all this hidden meaning and give the electorate all the credit they wish for making irrational and generally-ignorant or mis-informed decisions. But ultimately, elections are decided by the voters. When the voters are knowledgeable, they will make the right decisions. When they are ignorant, they will react the way anyone would expect. And when that ignorance is the result of an orchestrated effort to make the voter ignorant, it can't be a surprise that they vote they way they do.

Posted by: Reality on February 10, 2009 08:20 PM

7. People get what they deserve after voting for all of their ignorant splendor displayed in November, as #6 pointed out.

Now the President and congress is in the process of putting the cornerstones in place for a nanny state and possibly a socialist utopia. Do people realize that this form of government will be next to impossible to reverse ? Can anyone name an instance when the
Federal Government has become smaller ? Think hard, because there are none. Congress controls the purse strings with the approval of the President. Just thought that I would point this out.

Posted by: KS on February 10, 2009 08:38 PM

8. Check out this scenario. Now that the Big Brother agency is known that was designed by Daschle to give the socialists control over every American's health, Obama will remain relative moot on the subject. House and Senate Dems will make some trivial cuts and tweaks to satisfy the Obama-media. The public will be screaming, but the Dems will push the vote on the conference bill that will still include this health care expansion.

Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Arlen Specter will publicly announce that they have changed their minds and will oppose cloture on the conference bill.

Harry Reid will then call for a rule change to eliminate the 60-vote Cloture Rule. The media will agree that it is undemocratic. By a simple majority Democrats will vote to get rid of it and Republicans will be powerless. The largest expansion of government in history bill will pass along party lines. Obama will appoint and the Dems will confirm the most radical set of judges imagineable.

And the tyranny of the liberal majority will be a reality in the new Amerika.

Say it can't happen?

Liberalism is a mental disorder, but socialism will be the end of America.

Posted by: Reality on February 10, 2009 09:54 PM

9. Wow - it really IS funny to read the comments on here. Reality is out of touch with reality. The REPUBLICANS in congress currently have the lowest approval rating - not the democrats.

The voters are suddenly stupid and the media is biased - but when Bush was ruining the economy, starting unnecessary wars, spending trillions to put us in the largest deficit in history (and putting us in a unprecedented recession at the same time) the media was just fine the voters were smart?

There is so little logic displayed here that the it underscores the real problems the replican party has going forward. The whiners and the obstructionsists have no new ideas and as Eric has pointed out - the old ideas did not work.

This is a very instructive post from Eric, but it fails to articulate how to get back from oblivion.

True republican ideal - long abandoned by the republican party are:

fiscal conservatism: including cutting the defense budget

(the problem with cutting spending everywhere is that it is not feasible in the face of a depression right now - and calling for spending cuts after over 2 trillion spent by Bush on Iraq and banks is totally hypocritical)

getting government out of people lives:

Including: ending warrantless spying, getting government out of the the bedroom and letting states set their own limits on car emissions.

Finally, ending corruption. The latest on the Justice department and on the still on-going Abramoff scandal is one of the main resons republicans lost power - they abused it.

Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/ABRAMOFF_SENATOR?SITE=FLMYR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Posted by: correctnotright on February 11, 2009 07:17 AM

10. Don't forget, the Democrat's position on the Iraq war was very unpopular when they first came up with the "turn Iraq into Viet Nam" strategy. Everyone thought the war was won, and we were on the right track to irradicate terrorism. Then, once our enemies saw the Democrats take the lead in criticizing the war, they turned up the resistance and the rest is history.
Republicans don't get that kind of support because they put country before party. So they shouldn't count on it. Republicans have to be morally better, and have better ideas to win in the future. By that I mean no more "Larry Craigs". Cases like his, fair or not, make hypocrites of all Republicans who preach family values and morality. Democrats? No such problems. Just ask Barney Frank if his gay indiscretions have hurt him? They haven't because people expect that from Democrats because they promote it.
The reason Democrats won is because there are now more people in the USA on the dole than there are paying the bills. And it's going to get worse. Obama just hijacked the 2010 Census so he can manipulate congressional districts. That means more Democrats in congress from new amoeba-shaped districts where no Republican would even bother to run.
If Republicans are ever to gain power again, the tide of Illegal Immigration needs to be reversed. The Democrats have to fail miserably. And the Republicans (this is the most important part) need to be as FAR AWAY from this "Spendulus" disaster and the coming economic collapse and ultra-high inflation as possible.

Posted by: scott on February 11, 2009 08:29 AM

11. I think we're done, folks. The Republic as we have known it is gone. Why? oh, basic corruption and greed. No matter who we elected to office, they betrayed the people for their own pockets. No one prosecuted the crimes that have been all over politics for all our lives. Judges are corrupt to the bone.

So, what do we do now? We keep our sense of humor. We encourage each other. We give each other hints on this new life. We find a way thru the new maze of rules and regulations invented by some social worker in DC. We laugh again.

And we remind ourselves to pray. There will be events happening that are way over everybody's ability to cope.

Posted by: ljm on February 11, 2009 09:37 AM

12. correctnotright,

Do you really believe the junk you say, or are you hoping for feeble-minded folks to buy into your nonsense? Only the Kool Aid drinkers who lurk here are still vulnerable, so you're wasting your efforts.

The assault on Cloture is alive and well. Barbara Boxer assailed it just this morning. A simple majority vote and it's gone. So if Dems are willing to working out the compromise bill behind closed doors without a single Republican, who can doubt their willingness to take the last bit of power they haven't yet won at the ballot booth - er - with ACORN's fraud?

Posted by: Reality on February 11, 2009 09:46 AM