I finally received this Provisional Ballot Final Summary Reconciliation Report from the November 2008 election which was presented to the canvassing board at the certification meeting on Nov. 25. I compared the numbers with the source database records from the county's "DIMS" voter information system, which I received earlier this month.
The numbers don't quite reconcile. The Elections Office was unable to provide an explanation for the discrepancies today, and offered to get back to me Monday. I'll post their explanation upon receipt. In the meantime, here's what I found:
* The Report states that 33,885 provisional ballots were issued, and 33,883 were processed. There is no explanation for the difference.
* The Report claims that 27,482 voters were "Credited (DIMS) and sent to open". The DIMS file that was provided to me shows 24 fewer credited voters, 27,458. Of these, 166 were not credited in DIMS until Nov. 26, the day after certification.
* The Report claims that 6,401 were "Rejected (DIMS)". The DIMS file that was provided to me shows 6,405 rejected provisionals. The numbers in the Report for the various categories of Rejected ballots match my DIMS file in every case except two:
* My DIMS file shows 111 "Fatal Pend" rejections, not 113. [But it is good news that they rejected Fatal Pends this time, in contrast with 2004]
* My DIMS file shows 6 provisionals not counted with code "AVPEN", which I believe means "Absentee Voter Ballot Pending". i.e the voter was issued an absentee ballot and the provisional ballot is still being held to see whether the absentee is returned. The other DIMS files I received indicate that these voters had not returned an absentee ballot. This category is not included in the Reconciliation Report.
* The Report lists 3 categories of Provisional Ballots Issued --
"Canvass" -- which would correspond with regular provisional ballots issued at county polling places.
"Out of King County" -- provisional ballots issued elsewhere and sent to King County for processing
"Other" -- 19 ballots of this type were reported without further explanation.
The fact that the numbers in the report approximate but don't exactly match the DIMS records leads me to suspect that the numbers on the report didn't entirely come from DIMS, but were largely based on handcounts, and that canvassing and reconciliation hadn't actually been completed by certfication time. This is consistent with a report I received from an election canvass observer who informed me that a "final" pre-certification count was taking place at 3am, the workers were (quite understandably) exhausted and they ended up with a discrepancy of about 118 between provisional ballots and provisional voters.
This isn't egregious like the 2004 Mail Ballot Report which was fraudulently cooked up to conceal significant errors and unknowns that could have changed the outcome of the Governor's race. Nor does it seem to meet the near-perfect "Six Sigma" reconciliation standard that Sherril Huff is boasting about. There were no really close races last November, so no real harm done. On the other hand, one expects an elections office to be completely honest and transparent about the small errors, so you can trust them to be completely honest and transparent when there are more significant errors.
I will share King County's explanation for the discrepancies when I receive it.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at January 23, 2009 06:06 PM | Email ThisIn a race where a simple 18% of the vote could decide it, does anyone have any doubts now that the Sims machine will get their choice elected on February 3rd? With so many candidates and the winner take all, the simple name recognition vote among Democrats is going to decide this handily for Huff and Sims.
The problem is that these Democrat-controlled political systems that we're caught in are so corrupt and so manipulated by the left to achieve their desired outcomes that we're really becoming powerless. Add to it the cabal of liberal judges that will side with the left no matter what the law says (see California, Minnesota, Florida, and Washington for many examples), and the Pravda media that keeps most voters ignorant or misinformed, and we're totally screwed.
Is it beginning to feel like 1860 to anyone else, with us becoming slaves to the political class and its friends?
With all the great work Stefan does, what does it matter when so few pay attention to this corruption, only half of those that learn about it care, and the Pravda media is in that camp that doesn't care? Understanding how these systems are corrupted isn't stopping it. And even when the corruption is exposed, such as Huff's ineligibility to the canvassing board, it still doesn't make a difference, does it?
If a completely and totally corrupt person like Hillary Clinton can be confirmed to Secretary of State with Republican voting for her, then our two-party system appears to have been reduced to one party. That would be the party of the government and its corporate allies, versus us.
Posted by: Reality on January 23, 2009 06:56 PMI guess Government failing is acceptable to you? Ignoring votes is fine? You OK with getting it right 90% of the time?
It's not about GOP losses at the ballot box; it's about getting your vote counted correctly.
Grow up - it's not about YOU all the time...
Posted by: Shanghai Dan on January 24, 2009 08:52 AMpolitically, you're happy to throw car keys and a bottle to a teenager, hope for the best & not be bothered with the details--not me; vigilance; Founding Fathers knew it from their experiences in Europe; it applies to many things; schools, govt, regular jobs, life in general;
sorry that does not fit with a pithy rap-music 30-second commercial;
Posted by: jimmie-howya-doin on January 24, 2009 09:31 AMSince we can no longer hope that King County will count the votes properly, maybe we should decide our political controversies with violence.
That's what you meant, right?
Posted by: Jonathan Gardner on January 24, 2009 11:55 AMAnd @8, stop being a tool. HH said no such thing. In fact, it seems like conservatives profess the need to bring down governments with violence! You've said much the same thing, over and over again in your blog.
Posted by: demo_kid on January 24, 2009 03:05 PMExactly how many "discrepancies" have to happen before it IS a concern?
Posted by: David on January 24, 2009 04:53 PMIs it possible that the discrepancy could be explained by voter error? I've seen enough audited elections to know that a minuscule number of voters (1 in 10,000, something like that) wait to ask for a ballot and then walk away with it, or do not finish casting it properly.
2 of 33,885 provisionals would make for 0.006% non-cast rate. Does that seem like an unreasonable rate of provisionals issued, but not cast? Not to me. Consider that provisional voters are also disproportionately more likely to not be "with it" on various levels. Also consider that poll workers have no real way of reconciling errors they make in tallying provisionals issued.
I can't posit an explanation for any of the others (partially because I don't know what calculations are involved), and I'm still a little confused as to why King County would be using any of these "Other" codes they seem to be using. Defeats the purpose, donnit?
That having been said, I seriously doubt these errors are rare in populous American counties. Not good, and we should always be striving for better, but IHMO this kind of thing is not, taken in a vacuum, something to go all "kick the bastards out" over...
...especially before we get a plausible explanation ventured, as even a dullard like me was able to produce for the provisional discrepancy.
Posted by: Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson on January 24, 2009 05:42 PMI stand by my post that this whole thread sounds like a whining bout of some sort to explain losses. Get rid of the socially elite Champaign drinking neocons who play the evangelists for votes and someone who is actually more like Dan Evans than George Bush who people can relate to and you might see some interest. Ellen Craswell, John Carlson and Rossi what’s his name? Christ those people are annoying!
Posted by: HappyHeathen on January 24, 2009 10:39 PM