November 14, 2008
Leg Race Update
Important tallies this evening in Snohomish and Spokane counties show two races where a re-count will be needed to prove a winner:
1) Incumbent Republican John Ahern is trailing 49.96% - 50.04% (or 63 votes) in the 6th LD.
2) Republican challenger Mike Hope's lead narrowed just slightly in the 44th LD to 50.08% - 49.92% (or 107 votes).
Meanwhile, even if the race technically qualifies for a re-count, Norma Smith looks to have retained the House seat to which she was appointed in the 10th LD. A 469-vote margin is almost guaranteed to hold-up, absent some major election administration error that is subsequently reversed.
Lastly, Steve Litzow continues to slowly close the gap in the 41st LD, but will indeed end up just short (the current margin is 49.59% - 50.41%). He likely would have won that race in a non-Obama year, and probably set a benchmark for how GOP candidates in the 41st, 45th, and 48th LDs should run in future cycles.
Posted by Eric Earling at November 14, 2008
09:02 PM | Email This
1. No way Hope loses. There's only 1000 votes in all of Snohomish county, most of those won't be in his district. There aren't enough to turn it around.
2. Liz Loomis is done-for. All of the ballots are counted...the oustanding "rehab" ballots would have to go her way 100%. Ain't gonna happen.
Nice work REP HOPE!
3. It isn't a sure thing yet for Hope or Smith. The initial machine count includes only votes on ballots that were properly marked or which ballot inspectors caught as improperly marked and sent for duplication. Washington is a "voter-intent" state, and in a manual recount, votes that weren't counted the first time around ("undervotes") will be counted if the voter did things like put a checkmark in the bubble instead of filling it in, or circled the bubble, or circled the candidate name, or crossed out the candidate they didn't want, etc. Historically, a manual recount of such votes has turned up more Democratic votes than Republican votes. Thus, if Loomis or Knue request a manual recount, it could very well go their way. And because Minnesota is a voter-intent state as well, this same factor could also result in United State Senator Al Franken (since as of today Coleman is up by only 206 votes statewide).
4. Its over for Liz. There were 300,000 hand recounted votes in Snohomish County in 2004 for Rossi/Gregoire and it only moved 44 votes. There will only be 70,000 to hand count here with a 107 vote padding. Not going to happen. Congrats Rep. Hope.
5. Its over for Liz. There were 300,000 hand recounted votes in Snohomish County in 2004 for Rossi/Gregoire and it only moved 44 votes. There will only be 70,000 to hand count here with a 107 vote padding. Not going to happen. Congrats Rep. Hope.
6. In 2004, Snohomish County still had poll voting, using electronic voting machines. It's not surprising that there was little change in the "hand recount", because it was impossible for any hand recount to be done of the electronic votes. This year was the first time many of those previous poll voters voted by mail. I would not be at all surprised for there to be a higher error rate than in 2004.
7. I long for the good old days of poll voting.
That being said, I can't even imagine how there could be errors on those ballots we used. No hanging chads...no circles to be improperly filled in. People who can't properly complete a ballot that could be filled out by a bright third grader...shouldn't be allowed to vote.