Sound Politics: Legislative Races Confirming Late Conservative Ballot Trend

November 07, 2008

Legislative Races Confirming Late Conservative Ballot Trend

More on this in greater detail later, but the continued counting in legislative races shows a trend benefiting Republican candidates in later vote tallies - almost universally - in virtually every competitive contest (see last night's post for a lengthier look at the races in question).

The latest success story: Republican challenger Mike Hope is running down appointed, Democratic incumbent Liz Loomis in the 44th LD after facing an approximately 7% gap after the first Election Night tally. Hope trails 49.65% - 50.35%, though his campaign expresses confidence that any continuation of recent trends in ballot counting will put them over the top based on the number of votes outstanding.

Meanwhile, appointed, Republican incumbent Norma Smith has pulled ahead in the 10th LD.

Even Steve Litzow, facing a difficult race in an increasingly Democratic 41st LD, has narrowed an 8% deficit on November 4th down to 48.42% - 51.58%. Getting him to 50% in that one might be tough though.

Now pending: will Republican incumbent John Ahern finally pull ahead of Democratic challenger John Driscoll in the 6th LD?

The next count from Spokane should tell that tale...

Posted by Eric Earling at November 07, 2008 06:44 PM | Email This

Comments

1. A few jumps in two does not indicate an overall trend. The details hardly matter at this stage.

Last time I looked, Smith was behind again. Hardly anyone I know thinks Ahern should win - even the most conservative.

Posted by: jan on November 7, 2008 08:42 PM

2. Methinks the angry liberal Jan needs a new pair o'glasses. (and for the record, John Ahern rules!)

Legislative District 10, State Representative Pos. 1
Island, Skagit*, Snohomish*
Candidate Vote Vote %
Norma Smith (Prefers G.O.P. Party)
32,270 50.29 %
Tim Knue (Prefers Democratic Party)
31,892 49.71 %
Total Votes 64,162 100.00%

Posted by: Blair on November 7, 2008 08:49 PM

3. The trend is indeed a trend. There have been at least three updates since election night and each count has favored GOP candidates, some counts to a greater extent than others.

That tells me that the GOP ground game is still better than the Ds. In the 44th, for instance, there was a lot of effort put into idendifying, then turning out, votes for the GOP candidates.

And Mike Hope is a closer, to put it plainly. The first ballots were clear that the trend was going to be for the Democrats this year. But when it came to a blow-for-blow fight in the trenches the final two weeks Mike Hope proved he is better at close combat, turning around a 7% deficit in the early ballots to an 8% credit in the late ballots. That's nearly a 15-points swing, for those paying attention.

I "Hope" it's enough. :)

So that's my two cents. I'm out of corny puns and metaphors. I agree with Eric's analysis.

Posted by: Chad Minnick on November 7, 2008 09:37 PM

4. Down here in Pierce County the late votes are trending about 4 to 6 % more GOP in the last 100,000 votes counted than the first 100,000 counted. Long time Democratic party incumbent senator Marilyn Rasmussen is now losing to Randy Becker, and Shawn Bunney has closed a 10% gap to 4% for county executive. Ditto for Bruce Dammier, Jan Angel, Roger Bush and Joyce McDonald. Pierce County Council will now have a 5 to 2 GOP majority.

Posted by: Dick Muri on November 7, 2008 09:44 PM

5. That's great news about Pierce, Dick. And congrats on your overwhelming victory yourself.

Pierce County is really bucking the trend. Maybe you could bottle that and sell it to the GOP in King and Snohomish!

Posted by: Chad Minnick on November 7, 2008 09:56 PM

6. The GOP may have had some modest pickups with these late local results. Keep this momentum going into the next election (2010) and you may be witnessing a comeback. The state GOP may be on a modest rise, but the National GOP is in disarray and we'll see.

Posted by: KS on November 7, 2008 10:14 PM

7. Remember '92? and then how everything changed radically in '94? Anything is possible for sure.

Posted by: Michele on November 7, 2008 11:08 PM

8. I'm in the 44th and certainly HOPE Mike Hope pulls ahead. It would be refreshing to actually feel REPRESENTED again.

Am I the only one who feels the state initiatives & Sound Transit might have had some monkey business with the vote counting? How did it end up so lopsided on all the issues? -- Totally weird! How come I don't see any scrutiny of the ballot counting process this time around??

Posted by: Mamasauras on November 8, 2008 07:03 AM

9. Jan,

There have been no counts that showed Tim Knue ahead since Norma Smith passed him. He did pick up 30 votes in the Skagit count, but he is being overwhelmed in Island and she has won every post-election count in Snohomish.

Please go back to your dailykos/happy Obama world and let us enjoy our few victories!

Bill

Posted by: Bill S. on November 8, 2008 10:50 AM