November 07, 2008
Reichert is Winning...But Everyone Will Say It's Still Close

King County's late evening count gave Dave Reichert a 55% - 45% advantage among those ballots. He has now moved into a narrow overall lead in King, in addition to his strong lead in Pierce County.

Current overall margin: 51.10% - 48.90%.

That's a comfortable, if modest, lead for a competitive race. Moreover, the ballot counting trends since Tuesday night have been very clear. Reichert has been steadily gaining steam in every successive tally of mail-in ballots, after winning poll voters.

No media organization is going to call it yet, but the eventual outcome of this race looks increasingly clear.

Posted by Eric Earling at November 07, 2008 07:04 AM | Email This
Comments
1. I think when all is said and done, the Green River killer will have been caught and convicted and someone will likely still be working on her Econ degree. Onward! :)

Posted by: Duffman on November 7, 2008 07:06 AM
2. Maybe Darcy can go be Obama's Press Secretary.

The sound of her (nails on chalkboard) voice will ensure that the bad news she delivers will not only be reported.

What other jobs are available for Darcy?

Posted by: Jimster on November 7, 2008 07:13 AM
3. If she can't ride the blue wave to victory this year, then she has no chance in 2010. There is no way that she will run for a seat in the state house or senate. Once the nutroots pay off her debts, she will throw her hat into the ring again. After running for congress, she liked it so much, she is making a career of it.

Posted by: Moondoggie on November 7, 2008 07:17 AM
4. Damn moondoggie, that last line is priceless.

Posted by: PC on November 7, 2008 07:25 AM
5. @1: I think when all is said and done, the Green River killer will have been caught and convicted and someone will likely still be working on her Econ degree.

Too bad Reichert didn't catch him, eh? That's a bigger falsehood than parsing words about a degree.

@3: After running for congress, she liked it so much, she is making a career of it.

Kinda like Dino Rossi and governor? :)

Posted by: demo kid on November 7, 2008 07:39 AM
6. Eric -

Is there any estimate of how many votes were cast in the 8th CD in this election?

In 2004, the total was 336,499. The SoS website is reporting 241k counted thus far, so it appears that something on the order of 100k votes remain to be counted.

Posted by: ewaggin on November 7, 2008 08:34 AM
7. If Reichert wins King, he wins it all. He will win this race.

Posted by: Michele on November 7, 2008 08:46 AM
8. 5,200 ahead this AM.

Flush Burner.............

Posted by: Norm on November 7, 2008 08:49 AM
9.
6 - the numbers I see show 251,383 votes cast in 2006 for the Reichart/Burner race. Is 336,499 the total number of ballots in the 2006, meaning some 80,000 people cast ballots with no vote for either Reichart or Burner? Thx, TT

Posted by: Truth Teller on November 7, 2008 09:27 AM
10. How close does an election need to be before an automatic recount is triggered? Is it less than a percentage point?

Posted by: ModMilq on November 7, 2008 10:33 AM
11. One half of one per cent.

Posted by: Paula on November 7, 2008 10:42 AM
12.
Pierce County -- his stronghold -- has one of the lowest voter turnouts and yet he's still winning!

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTurnout.aspx?ElectionID=26

Posted by: John Bailo on November 7, 2008 10:48 AM
13. 2004: Bush 51%, Kerry 49% - "Country divided!"
2008: Obama 52%, McCain 48% - "Country united!"

Posted by: Steve on November 7, 2008 11:00 AM
14. It will be hard to find 5000 votes, even in King County. But Burner does have the benefit of two counties where they can consort with each other to try and figure out the totals she needs to overcome. This was the method KC used to defeat Rossi in 2004. The count was slow because they wanted to find out what all of the other counties were reporting so they knew just what they had to come up with. Then magically, Dean Logan and Bill Huennekens came up with and counted the unauthenticated provisionals (that Stefan later proved) that were enough to tip the scales.

It's not looking good for Burner, but don't "count" her out yet.

Posted by: Jeff B. on November 7, 2008 11:13 AM
15. Good point, Jeff B.
I'm getting that same, sick, deja vu from 2004 watching the Coleman/Frankin race in Minnesota.

Posted by: De Espresso Latte on November 7, 2008 11:34 AM
16. @13 - Steve, The correct number is Obama 52%, McCain 46%.

Get your numbers right, okay? Oh that's right you're a conservative. "The Iraq war will cost us about $50 billion....."

Posted by: Go Obama Go on November 7, 2008 11:35 AM
17. As a Canadian political junkie who is a keen observer of U.S. elections, I have to say I am shocked at how long this count is taking. How is it possible in this day and age that it could take several days to count ballots in one Congressional district? Clearly the State has to change its rules on mail-in ballots, setting earlier deadlines so that all the ballots are in one place and able to be counted along with the others when the polls close. The public deserves to know who won sooner than five days after the fact.

I should add that there are many things to admire about your electoral process. I am particularly impressed at the way in which people come together to support a new President, putting partisanship aside to close ranks. The graciousness with which John McCain, President Bush, Condi Rice, and so many others have spoken is admirable, and speaks to the best qualities of American democracy. I hope their Democratic colleagues take notice, and are able to demonstrate the same graciousness on the day when the shoe is inevitably on the other foot.

And yes, I also smell some funny business brewing in Minnesota. That recount is going to get very ugly...

Posted by: Dennis Prouse on November 7, 2008 12:02 PM
18. @17 - Yes, our elections system needs some serious help. We have had a long tradition of keeping elections local, therefore some counties and states do a great job. Others suck. There are also laws in certain states such as Washington that direct that no counting of votes can begin until the polls actually close. That means we get a late start. We also have to wait for our mail to deliver some ballots. This adds up to several days to the process.

I've heard that Canada gets all of their results out very quickly usually by the next day at the latest. Can you tell me more about how you people do it?

Posted by: Go Obama Go on November 7, 2008 12:26 PM
19. @18,
They hired Red Green to design the ballot boxes.

Posted by: Smoley on November 7, 2008 12:51 PM
20. "I've heard that Canada gets all of their results out very quickly usually by the next day at the latest. Can you tell me more about how you people do it?"

Socialized health care...it fixes everything don't you know?

Posted by: trickydick on November 7, 2008 12:53 PM
21. Darcy's gone - bye, bye

But Minnesota may "King County" Al Franken to victory yet.

Posted by: ajday on November 7, 2008 01:04 PM
22. Oblamaton, we'll get the right numbers directly after you end your run as a moron.

Get your politics corrected, OK?... Oh, that's right, you're a fringe left nutter. "When democrats take control of Congress they'll end the war..."

Posted by: Hinton on November 7, 2008 01:05 PM
23. Dennis @17: Your observation relates to my primary objection to vote-by-mail (and also to 'early voting'): the voters are not all participating in the same election. Requiring mail-in ballots to be received by election day (ergo, submitted beforehand) only exacerbates the problem, forcing voters to vote even earlier, when the campaign is not yet over.

By voting at polling places during a clearly defined period of time, at least everyone is basing their vote on essentially the same information. This is not the case with vote-by-mail or early voting.

For those who would argue that "it doesn't really make a difference," may I simply point to the events earlier this week in the race for the 8th Legislative District (Eastern Washington), where two days before the election the challenger was placed on a 72-hour psychiatric hold after threatening to harm himself. I suspect those who had already cast their votes for him might have been having second thoughts come Election Day.... (And before you jump all over me, I think the circumstance was sad and tragic, and I wish nothing but the best for him and his family. But the fact that it occurred is most certainly relevant to his qualification for the office he was seeking.)

And back to the original point: same-day voting also facilitates faster tabulation of the vote and eliminates having to wait days on end for the results.

So, I'm definitely in the "proof of citizenship to register, proof of registration and identity to vote, absentee voting only for those physically unable to vote in person" camp. (I also think national elections should last 24 hours, starting and ending simultaneously nationwide.)

Posted by: Patrick on November 7, 2008 01:11 PM
24. "I hope their Democratic colleagues take notice, and are able to demonstrate the same graciousness on the day when the shoe is inevitably on the other foot.

Thanks Dennis, it's nice to hear from our good friends to the north. Rest assured you will not see the Bush administration staff playing the same juvenile stunts that the immature Clinton staff did back in 2000 (removing W's from Keyboard) during the Administration transition. That is the fundamental difference between the party's down here, one is petulant and derisive when ousted from power and the other is gracious in defeat.

It truly is a microcosm of the entire Left/right dichotomy.

Posted by: Rick D. on November 7, 2008 01:17 PM
25. Reichert's lead increased to 6,403 or 2.44% with the latest King County update at 2:38 PM.

Posted by: mlynne on November 7, 2008 02:50 PM
26. Anyone know if worth complaing to Attorney gen.. (kc elections laughed at me). Dems showed up at my door today to remind me my signature on my absentee was invalid. they were nice but still creepy that "the Party" sends politicos to my house while votes are being counted...

feels like pissing in the wind to complain, but its also big brotherish to me to have them show up...(imaging if i got some big guys to show up in certain ethnic neighborhoods; how would they like that)

Posted by: righton on November 7, 2008 04:23 PM
27. Well, perhaps tonight's Pierce ballot count will put a stake through her heart, and we'll be done with her for good.

Then Darcy can fluff her resume' for a position in the Obama administration, maybe as an economic adviser (one of 100's).

Posted by: Sasquatch on November 7, 2008 05:54 PM
28. Latest update:

Candidate          Vote          Vote %
Dave Reichert     138,537     51.47%
Darcy Burner      130,606     48.53%

Posted by: mlynne on November 7, 2008 07:28 PM
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