November 05, 2008
Reichert v. Burner Update - w/ AM numbers

Dave Reichert did exceptionally well today in ballots counted in Pierce County, extending his lead over Darcy Burner in that portion of the 8th CD from 54.5% - 45.5% to 56.1% - 43.9%. That's a lot of movement in a modest batch of votes.

The overall tally, including King County, now has Reichert ahead 50.55% - 49.45% as of this typing.

King County will have another significant tally later this evening. These will largely be ballots cast in the middle of the voting period. The Election Night count of early mail-in ballots in King County gave Burner a 57% - 43% margin. Reichert won the poll votes to close the margin there. A number of additional mail-in ballots in King County were tallied in the middle of the day, providing Burner with a more modest 51.5% - 48.5% lead in that count.

Thus, the trend is pretty clear. Even with a net Burner gain later tonight, trends indicated further tightening in King County, perhaps even an eventual Reichert lead there. Meanwhile, Pierce County has a lot of ballots left to count in an area that is giving Reichert a very healthy margin. Current turnout statistics show 40.27% for King and 36.71% for Pierce based on ballots counted thus far (yes, that is agonizingly slow). Given the 80+% turnout everyone expected we have a ways to go.

Again, the sum of the overall trend lines looks good for Reichert. The devilish truth remains, however, that this is all rather close. Back to the waiting.

UPDATE: King County's late night count gave Burner a modest margin. Reichert maintains an overall lead and the overall trend lines in both Pierce and King favor Reichert if later mail-in ballots continue to move toward the margins Reichert achieved with poll voters.

Good heavens this is going to take a while...

Posted by Eric Earling at November 05, 2008 08:17 PM | Email This
Comments
1. I found out the initial ballots counted were a combination of Can't-wait-to-vote Obama voters and pre "HarvardHoax" ballots.

Posted by: Don Ward on November 5, 2008 08:21 PM
2. I think the so-called "Harvard Hoax" will effect only a small amount of independents(sp). The Darcy Haters only used that as a rally cry.

Posted by: Mike Barer on November 5, 2008 10:22 PM
3. The race looks to be on track to be a repeat of 2006, when Darcy was winning the King parts of the 8th narrowly but Reichert chipped away at them in later vote counts.

What I'd like to know is what Darcy is going to do now. If she runs again she's virtually become Heidi Behrens-Benedict. Maybe Obama can help her finally get her foot in the door in government! First, appoint Inslee to the Cabinet like some have speculated. Then, Eric Oemig runs for Inslee's seat in the special election and probably wins. Then Darcy can run for Oemig's seat and given that the 45th won't even elect Toby Nixon anymore that seat's probably a given too. Problem solved.

Posted by: TMW on November 6, 2008 02:43 AM
4. TMW@3,

Darcy Burner running for State legislature? That's beneath her. She also won't be able to afford it since the nutroots won't care about her if she's not running for a national office. The other problem is that Darcy doesn't live in the 45th.

I'm not so sure that Oemig could take Inslee's seat. Of course it all depends on who the GOP puts up to run against him. Oemig has done nothing for the people of the 45th from his freshman position in the state senate except be the point of ridicule with his lame attempt at trying to impeach Bush. He's pretty good at smear tactics and campaign lies though. Just ask Toby Nixon.


Posted by: Smoley on November 6, 2008 08:11 AM
5.
McDermott will retire in 2010, and Darcy will move to Seattle and run for his seat. That is where she belongs anyway.


Posted by: It is obvious on November 6, 2008 08:29 AM
6. This is shaping up to be a repeat of the Gorton/Cantwell election. Cantwell's crew out hustled Gorton's crew and "found" enough people to get questionable ballots (signature mismatch) counted.

Cantwell won.

Lord how I hope Reichert wins as he is my *only* voice in elected government: County Council (D), County Exec (D), State House (D x 2), State Senate (D), Governor (D), US House (?), US Senate (D x 2), Prez (D).

Suck suck suck.

Posted by: WestBellevueDad on November 6, 2008 08:40 AM
7. West Bellevue Dad:
You forgot to mention Prop 1.

When the aerial alignment comes over I-90 onto Bellevue Way at the height of the aerial lines at the airport, and the corridor condemns numerous homes, disturbs the Mercer Slough environment & wildlife, & takes out huge stands of trees & creates visual blight & noise, Enatai will be wishing they had woken up sooner.

Suck suck suck

Posted by: WestBellevueMom on November 6, 2008 08:58 AM
8.
to 6 and 7 - And we up on Cougar Mtn will look down in wonderment at the new Taj Mahal train station to be built... where? Eastgate? BellWay and I-90? Where the heck does the line run north from I-90?

Of course, by then (2020?), we will all have moved.


Posted by: SouthBellevueDad on November 6, 2008 09:41 AM
9. I have never been more grateful for buying a home outside the ST (and urban growth) boundary. Those ST taxes are going to be collected for the rest of my and my children's lifetimes. Meanwhile the S-curves along I-405 North/South are going to get much, much worse. I used to work in Bellevue, and found another job because of it.

Posted by: Palouse on November 6, 2008 10:13 AM
10. South Bellevue Dad:

If they select a corridor on Bellevue Way, the South Bellevue Park & Ride will either be 4 stories tall or will double in footprint (building & pavement coverage)- and will be sited IN THE WETLAND. So much for environmental protections. Not to mention that SBP&R is in a liquifaction zone (land turns to mush) if there is a major earthquake.

And they will likely change the surrounding zoning to allow businesses at the station (and possibly change from single family to multi-family or commercial), which in their language would support a Transit Oriented Development, or TOD.

That means zoning changes to denser zoning, folks. To achieve that density, they may take (condemn) nearby homes & property, so that any increase in value due to the change is not realized by the present owners.

Business as usual for Sound Transit.

Posted by: WestBellevueMom on November 6, 2008 10:38 AM
11. Two unrelated points:

1. Having been to Japan --the Mecca of public transit -- many times, I've really come to appreciate the train stops as dense business locations. If the station doesn't have loads of stores and restaurants, you're missing the point: train stations are community hubs. I'm not saying that I favor light rail or any particular location but I do think that stations and retail should be inseparable.

2. You can't say that Darcy Burner isn't working hard at getting elected. A friend just got called by her campaign to let him know that his ballot had been rejected due to a signature mismatch. They even volunteered to come to his house and deliver the correction form to the county.

Posted by: SeattleSE on November 6, 2008 11:28 AM
12. SeattleSE@11,

How would anyone on Burner's campaign know when a ballot is rejected? That just sounds fishy to me.


Posted by: Smoley on November 6, 2008 11:55 AM
13. Hey, compare the density of your beloved Asian transit and compare to Seattle.

Last winter I went to the top of the Needle and just looked around with a careful eye towards whether light rail or subways would work in Seattle. No way; the area is not dense enough (though voters could be considered such in Seattle) for the same type of systems you see here or in other metropolitan areas.

Posted by: swatter on November 6, 2008 12:05 PM
14. The fact still remains, and it is mystifying to me, how can that little chipmunk even be this close? I really don't understand that.

I remember that the Democrats this year came up with the "low information voter" handle. I think that they may be on to something with that. When you mix in the overall press bias and the outright lies that the Demorats are willing to use, this is may be something new. Heavy pandering to the perennially stupid.

Posted by: G Jiggy on November 6, 2008 12:09 PM
15. Swatter:

You are on target- the density in Enatai doesn't come close to what is needed to support cost-efficient ridership, unless you change the zoning (upzone) to create more riders that depend on rail.

That's what Bellevue is planning for Bel-Red corridor, creating a light rail corridor by condemning private property & carving through the middle of long-established small businesses, where there is no road now.

Did I mention that Sound Transit has allocated HALF a BILLION dollars (500 Million) to condemn property between I-90 and Overlake for Right of Way (ROW) acquisition?


-On another note, a Democrat representative came by my door on election night to make sure we had voted. Wonder who was funding that?

Posted by: WestBellevueMom on November 6, 2008 12:27 PM
16. Darcy showed herself to the public in the debates.
Degree in Economics from Harvard! What do you call a person who tells the truth 99% of the time. A liar!! Enough said.

Posted by: C Hend on November 6, 2008 12:32 PM
17. Smoley @12, the Shark or the people that follow elections would know better than me what information is publicly available. Since you put a phone number on the absentee ballot next to your signature, all of the information that they would need is on the rejected ballot. Also, my friend had already gotten a letter from King County notifying him of the problem. As far as the call goes, the caller ID said "Darcy Burner" and it definitely happened.

Swatter@13, Beloved is a little much. Although I do have favorite sushi joints near Shimbashi and Aoyama-Ichome stations in Tokyo. :) However, I'm not saying that I favor light rail here, I don't, I'll pay for it forever and never ride it since it comes nowhere near my home. I'm just saying that rail transit makes no sense to me unless the stations become hubs of community activity. The apparent vision of the proponents of light rail where a station is just a stop with a big parking structure blows. It's fine for the airport but really misses the mark. In fact, it's as if the long term plan must be to rezone areas near the stations as all commercial/condos.

Posted by: SeattleSE on November 6, 2008 01:04 PM
18. SeattleSE@17,

What I'm curious about is how the heck does Darcy Burner know which ballots are being rejected?

Also, if Burner, or one of her minions, put hands on an actual ballot (rejected or otherwise), that's not good. How can the privacy of the voters be protected with that sort of thing happening? I can't believe that this is even legal.

Posted by: Smoley on November 6, 2008 01:37 PM
19. SeattleSE:

Understood, that you're not in favor of a particular site.

"In fact, it's as if the long term plan must be to rezone areas near the stations as all commercial/condos."

...And that's exactly why the South Bellevue Park & Ride is not an appropriate or cost-effective site for a hub of community activity- between an environmentally sensitive area with some protected species and a wetland, and a single-family, low density neighborhood with few riders...

Posted by: WestBellevueMom on November 6, 2008 01:38 PM
20. Smoley@18,

It never occurred to me that they saw the ballot. I just assumed that there was a list of names and contact information for voters whose ballots were rejected. What I'm curious about is if they're calling all of the rejected voters or if they have somehow targeted areas with high Burner turnout. Perhaps not calling Pierce county, for example. As long as it's legal, you've got to admire the perseverance of her campaign. This isn't really a dirty trick at all and my friend hasn't gotten any calls from the Reichert campaign. If she's going to grub for votes, I'd rather she do it this way than searching on the floor under voting machines.

Posted by: SeattleSE on November 6, 2008 01:46 PM
21. Holy Cow Batman! We need to shine the shark beam into the night sky so the Shark can explain all this recount, bogus ballot stuff all over again. Let's not be Cantwelled this time.

Posted by: Moondoggie on November 6, 2008 02:49 PM
22. I'm in conserv precinct, by mail, and they challenged my signature. I cry foul, in that i signed it and i gotta believe there's a jillion others out there w/ more variablity than my signature....again, targeting!

Posted by: righton on November 6, 2008 03:27 PM
23. Seattle SE (welcome if you are new, but it would be better to keep your same handle if not), we have had ST employees on the board explain that the main goal is to miraculously create these huge employment and living zones surrounding the stations. That is a whole lot of dreamin' and schemin'. Then the little buggers suggest that it should be fine and dandy for all of us. I responded that these zones would create what- 50k people which I think is bare bones to make it work.

I just don't see it.

Posted by: swatter on November 6, 2008 04:00 PM
24. Reichert has to win or I will have to move to eastern Washington.
I can not tell you how many of my dinners were ruined watching TV when that whinny little girl talked about her Harvard Education.
We all know what happens to Ivy League graduates, they make such a profound impact on our country. Yale?

Posted by: tg on November 6, 2008 04:07 PM
25. Me@20,

Now, in addition to the phone call, there's a letter from the WA State Democratic Central Committee explaining how to get the vote counted included are the affidavit that you need to sign as well as a stamped envelope to put it in.

Again, they are tenacious and I don't think that there's anything wrong with doing this but, franky, I find the use of "Central Committee" a bit creepy if not downright worrisome. Surely everyone knows the connotation of that particular phrase?

Posted by: SeattleSE on November 6, 2008 04:11 PM
26. If Little Darcy does not end up winning somehow, then she will have four years to burn before her next opportunity to challenge Reichert. She could go back to Harvard to earn that economics degree that she loves so much...

Posted by: Gary on November 6, 2008 04:18 PM
27. Latest numbers (as of 3:00 pm) have Reichert increasing his lead to about 2,000. Running pretty even in King County and up by 12% in Pierce. Short of any shenanigans, it is looking good for the Sheriff.
BTW, can someone give me an unemotional explanation of why it takes sooooo long to count ballots in King County? It simply makes no sense at all.

Posted by: Willard on November 6, 2008 04:21 PM
28. Willard @ 27, the same reason it takes a pharmacist an hour to count out 30 pills. College.

Posted by: PC on November 6, 2008 04:25 PM
29. WestBellevueMom@19,

Those are two things the power structure loves: Wetlands and Eminent Domain to increase the tax base. Two guesses who gets the shaft as this unfolds. That's "Change!" for you.

Posted by: SeattleSE on November 6, 2008 04:25 PM
30. :ets get back to the list of mismatched signatures.
The only way this list could be known by the Burner campaign group is if KC elections released that list.
And why just to the Burner campaign and not Reicherts.
Smells like that diaper add to me!

Posted by: tg on November 6, 2008 04:30 PM
31. Lets get back to the list of mismatched signatures.
The only way this list could be known by the Burner campaign group is if KC elections released that list.
And why just to the Burner campaign and not Reicherts.
Smells like that diaper add to me!

Posted by: tg on November 6, 2008 04:30 PM
32. Lets get back to the list of mismatched signatures.
The only way this list could be known by the Burner campaign group is if KC elections released that list.
And why just to the Burner campaign and not Reicherts.
Smells like that diaper add to me!

Posted by: tg on November 6, 2008 04:31 PM
33. tg@30-32,

According to the Reichert campaign, they're getting out the (rejected) vote too, so no worries here. As long as both sides get a shot at getting what are probably mostly legitimate votes counted, I don't see a problem. Since you're required to send include a copy of your photo I.D. the probability of fraud seems low. Let every legitimate vote count.

Posted by: SeattleSE on November 6, 2008 04:49 PM
34. As it stands right now, Reichert is ~1% ahead of Burner. King County has 5 more precincts to count that would affect the outcome of this race. I would imagine those would be completed by this time tomorrow (next update from KCE - 11:30pm tonight).

If the difference of votes between the two candidates is less than 1/2 of one percent, an automatic recount will take place (at the expense of the taxpayers). However, another recount could be requested by Burner & Co. if they want to bankroll it themselves.

What do you want to bet that the nutroots from outside the district (lead by Goldy, of course) will throw even more money at Burner's feet in order to get Marcy-Darcy a recount, should the difference be greater than 1/2 of one percent?

Posted by: Smoley on November 6, 2008 05:02 PM
35. SeattleSE @ 29:

...and almost all of the local district Democrats endorsed Prop 1...

I wonder if they, the Sierra Club and the Audubon Society know what kind of environmental destruction they have endorsed, when Sound Transit starts digging in deep peat in Mercer Slough wetland to put in deep posts that will be towering like at the airport(& supposedly earthquake proof).

What's that going to do to the fish, 2 kinds of protected salmon, blue herons, etc, etc?

Posted by: WestBellevueMom on November 6, 2008 05:08 PM
36. King County's last batch gave Reichert a 108 vote gain. King County has a LONG way to go, but this lastest batch is a good sign.

Posted by: Moondoggie on November 6, 2008 06:03 PM
37. hoping stefan/gop or A.G. cares about this...

not only did i get physical mail from Dems, today 2 guys showed up at my door asking about my signature.

scary

I called KC elections; they could care less

Posted by: righton on November 7, 2008 02:50 PM
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