November 05, 2008
Reichert v. Burner near the dawn
Reichert is now up overall 50.32% to Burner's 49.68%, after a long night of slowly tallying votes in King and Pierce.
Notably, Reichert is winning later counts in King County outright after the first count of early mail-in ballots gave Burner a robust 57% - 43% margin.
There are a lot of ballots left to count in this race, with current statistics showing 33% turnout in King and nearly 30% in Pierce based on ballots counted thus far.
This one is going to take a while, though there are some signs that the Reichert campaign should feel better than Burner's. As we've discussed at the blog in the past, there is a demonstrated trend favoring Republican candidates in tight races as later mail-in ballots are counted. The stark differentiation between the first mail-in ballots and the poll votes in King County indicates a potentially major shift occurred during the course of the voting period (in addition to the trend of conservatives voting later). Overlaying the timing of Burner's economics degree snafu over everything completes the picture.
It's far from a sure thing, a loss is still possible, but I'm cautiously optimistic for Reichert.
Posted by Eric Earling at November 05, 2008
06:56 AM | Email This
1. Reichert's mantra: 'Yes We Can'! :)
2. You are up way to early. I think your comment on Pierce County was totally accurate
3. The state of the nation is worrisome to me. The fact that total air heads like Darcy, psychotic comedians in Minnesota, and aging Queens in Washington State could do so well in votes really worries me. I think the election became a gut reaction rather than a thinking reaction. Sad. And even after four years of Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, they will all, especially the MSM, still be screaming "it's all Bush's fault".
4. katomar:
This election was never about issues, so of course, it's not a thinking reaction. They will try to tell us it was about the economy, but Gregoire has a terrible record and Obama has none. People did not think, they just said I HATE BUSH and I LIKE ARTICULATE BLACK GUY. And then they had the lack of thought to even vote down the ticket that way.
5. This add made the difference...Women (Denise) stayed with Reichert...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmNrlCo3JsE&eurl=http://www.soundpolitics.com/
Side Note: I wish the RGA came out with an ad like this for Dino...
6. IMO Pudge's reply to Katomar @ #4 above is probably about as good a summary of this election as anyone has (or will) come up with. [_sigh_]...
7. I'm guardedly with you Eric.
The Dems did a tremendous job of focusing on early turnout...nationwide to try & get weak Dem-leaners to vote so they couldn't change their minds..AGAIN.
8. I think Reichert will return to congress.
9. I checked the web site and it said 100 percent of ballots counted it looked like Dave won.
10. (i posted this elsewhere on this blog)...I live in GOP leaning precinct; got a letter saying my mail in signature didn't match, and I'd have to fill out affadavit in order to count. I did that, and also sent note saying they were likely politically ignoring Fremont (left leaning) in order to target people in GOP areas...
11. Even if Dave pulls this out, what have you got? a severely compromised "liberal," whose contortions to appear unconservative have left him as empty as a bag of Mother's cookies. After this election, Dave Reichert has no soul, and the 8th has a well-coiffed wraith batting around the halls of congress with even less clout or chance of effectiveness.
12. John Bailo,
Where are you reading that 100% of the votes are counted? If you are relying on the Sec of state page, that 100% means of the 100% counted thus far 50.41% went to Reichert and 49.59 went to Burner. Unfortunately, it will be several days before we know who won this race. I will be shocked if it is Burner but I suppose it is possible. Having known Burner and having met Reichert a couple of times, if I were in the 8th I would have voted for Reichert in a heartbeat. It's not that I dislike Darcy (although she got on my nerves several times), but I think her political philosophy is deeply flawed.
13. I like the lady who always asks if we have ever signed the front of a paycheck, as if someone who signs the back doesn't have a family to feed or a mortgage to pay, or taxes. Name a good company with bad workers.
14. Well one thing I don't have to worry about - having Ditzy Burner representing me for the next 2 years. Be happy for small victories.
15. My guess is that the Democrats will be more inclusive than when Bush was president and had no checks. Now we have a war and a budget deficet. In 2 years, seats will be regained by Republicans in their will be power checks, it's how the system has worked for 200+ years.