November 04, 2008
Trouble in the Gov's Race - UPDATED

Not going to lie to you, first batch of returns in Snohomish County brings it to a tad over 45% turnout in that locale. The results:

Gregoire 56% - Rossi 44%

That's not a good margin compared to Election Night 2004.

Before I even got to that one, I saw Obama over 60% in the county. That's a very bad sign. It shows a tide to severe to swim against. Outperforming the national ticket by nearly 7% in that big batch of votes is very good. The starting point, however, is very tough to overcome.

More updates to come...

UPDATE: Yakima looks better. Rossi up 60% - 40% with nearly 53% turnout thus far.

Spokane, eh. Virtual 50-50 chop, with 46% turnout.

Kitsap is better than Snohomish but not great. Gregoire 52.6% to Rossi's 47.4%. Little lower than I'd like to see for Rossi on first count, even with an expected conservative push in later returns.

UPDATE II: Mason is another eh. A bellwether county for blue-collar votes. A modest Rossi win in 2004. 51.25% Gregoire to Rossi's 48.75%, with an amazing 67.04% turnout based on ballots already counted.

UPDATE III: Clark is another problem point. A very high 65.65% turnout based on ballots counted so far. Gregoire ahead 50.17% to Rossi's 49.83%. Rossi won 52.8% to 44.7% in 2004 with just shy of 83% turnout.

At this point, it looks like Gregoire is doing better than 2004 in key counties: Snohomish, Kitsap, Clark, and Spokane. That is an ominous sign.

Dino put up a great fight. There are thousands, upon thousands of Dinocrats. But the post-financial sector meltdown shift hitting Republicans who had nothing to do with it is looking like just too much.

The statewide numbers people are talking about in the comments are immaterial (King County has yet to report). Gregoire is out-performing her totals from 2004 in key counties where she dramatically under-performed the Democratic ticket. She's doing that again this year, just not as bad. And my hunch is it will be enough.

Damn.

UPDATE IV: NBC news, not KING 5, has called the race for Gregoire. I'd say that's about right based on the numbers I've seen, especially given the volume of votes counted outside King County.

Posted by Eric Earling at November 04, 2008 08:15 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Interesting the google eleciton page (http://news.google.com/?topic=el&promo_msg=el) is showing a greater % reporting then wa.gov site. Google showing 27% reporting - 48%/52% Rossi/Gregoire

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 08:36 PM
2. State website is way behind...Seattle PI has the same a Google...

Posted by: Glenno on November 4, 2008 08:38 PM
3. I see the "southern strategy" of the GOP has come of age. They lost NE and even some states in the inter mountain west. I don't see the GOP as a national party but more of a regional player in the old confederacy. It even looks good for Gregoire and I thought she might be done.

Posted by: wheat on November 4, 2008 08:42 PM
4. Nice...

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Posted by: Glenno on November 4, 2008 08:43 PM
5. Put a fork in this one... the Queen rules for another 4 years

Posted by: asdf on November 4, 2008 08:44 PM
6. The vote.wa.gov site works sometimes, like this page, which shows our sales taxes going up:
http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/ResultsByCountyMeasure.aspx?ElectionID=26&RaceID=101797&CountyCode=%20&JurisdictionTypeID=481&RaceTypeCode=M&ViewMode=Results

Posted by: no-ST2 on November 4, 2008 08:48 PM
7. not so fast...Rossi takes the lead...


County Results & Map
Last updated on 11/4/2008 8:39 PM Governor (Partisan office, 4-year term)
Statewide
Candidate Vote Vote %
Christine Gregoire (Prefers Democratic Party)

325,233 49.64 %

Dino Rossi (Prefers G.O.P. Party)

330,009 50.36 %
Total Votes 655,242 100.00%

Posted by: Glenno on November 4, 2008 08:52 PM
8. check out seattlepi - rossi down 48/52 still about 30k votes 435k to 466k votes

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 08:57 PM
9. King 5 showing Rossi down with vote totals above 500k for each. SOS showing Rossi up with vote totals for each only in the 300k range. How are news stations getting numbers in advance of the SOS???

Posted by: ccw1220 on November 4, 2008 09:02 PM
10. Yeah it's really strange the disconnect between news sites and SOS site. SOS now showing 469k 449k ROSSI ahead.

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:07 PM
11. SOS continues to show good news - now 475k rossi to 452k

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:10 PM
12. Eric: Check this out Seattle PI has the numbers backwards

SOS Site:
Governor (Partisan office, 4-year term)
Statewide
Candidate Vote Vote %

Christine Gregoire (Prefers Democratic Party)
444,338 49.02 %

Dino Rossi (Prefers G.O.P. Party)
462,145 50.98 %

Seattle PI Number (Backwards)
GOVERNOR
Name Votes Vote %
Gregoire , Christine (i) 466,283 52%
Rossi , Dino 434,947 48%


Posted by: Glenno on November 4, 2008 09:10 PM
13. News sites and google getting their stats from AP - no clue where AP is getting its numbers.

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:12 PM
14. The state site does not show any results for King county, which is why it shows Rossi ahead.

Posted by: asdf on November 4, 2008 09:12 PM
15. Hmm... It is almost like when I said that Rossi was bound to lose because he lost last time and that was before Gregiore became the incumbanet!

Oh and McCain supporters... Good thing we chose the moderate McCain to win the swing votes huh? Would you not have prefered to have a candidate with real economic understanding Like Paul on the ballot today? Or are you still insiting McCain was the best strategic choice?

Posted by: Lysander on November 4, 2008 09:17 PM
16. PI (thus AP) showing 505k - 487k, Rossi down, but deficit cut in half

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:18 PM
17. SOS finally ahead of the AP now showing Rossi down 542k to 525k

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:25 PM
18.
The Ghost of Mike McGavick continues to haunt Republicans even at the national level.

When will we learn -- the public don't want Republicans who are Demopublicans. Either go big, or go out...and that's just what all the middle of the road, milquetoast Republicans are doing right now.

Posted by: John Bailo on November 4, 2008 09:28 PM
19. Rossi is in deep shit.
All you have to do is compare County-by-County results from 2004 with 2008.
Gregoire is consistently performing better in many, many County's.

Rossi was hurt by McCain pulling out of Washington leaving a vacuum for Gregoire.
We can also thank Bush for this and what he has done to the Republican Party with his horrible Fiscal Management and wild spending.
My opinion.

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on November 4, 2008 09:31 PM
20. also eric KC's early #'s are in the 542k to 525k numbers.

i agree with you - my gut was unfortunately a win for G. my prediction was a cantwell 2k vote-esque win.

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:31 PM
21. AP news sites #'s now 618k G to 584k Rossi

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:35 PM
22. 628k to 582k Rossi down on AP/news sites

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:41 PM
23. sorry meant 628k to 592k

Posted by: todd on November 4, 2008 09:42 PM
24. Is Reichert really losing that badly?

Posted by: Chiech on November 4, 2008 09:43 PM
25. Lysander,

Add EVERY third party vote to McCain and he still loses. Those third party votes includes you "principled" Paulians who refused to vote for McCain or Obama...

So how would nominating Paul have helped at all? Other than put someone even more out of touch with economic reality?

Posted by: Shanghai Dan on November 4, 2008 09:52 PM
26. NBC just declared Gregoire the winner?? Not sure about that but it is not looking good for Dino

Posted by: jK on November 4, 2008 10:03 PM
27. Shanghai Dan:

Nominating Paul would have helped because instead of having our nominee suspending his campaign to run to washington to lead us torwads nationalizing our financial industry and spending 800 billion we did not have to spend...

we would instead of had a man with a deep understanding of economics and a strong respect for free markets informing the country that government is not the solution (as McCain proposed) but rather the problem.

This of course is what about 90% of the people seemed to beleive given their opposition to the bailout supported by Obama and McCain. Somehow I just have to beleive that that would have translated into a huge turnout for Paul.

Tell me though... How did this McCain campaign help the cause of smaller government? Did he spread that message? No. Did he get elected? No. At the very least Paul would have spread the message. McCain did not even come close to doing that!

Posted by: Lysander on November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
28. Gary Locke just stated that he believes the deficit is really $4.5Billion. Thanks Queen Christine. That means if she is to be believed with no new taxes a 35-50% cut in state budget.

Posted by: Dengle on November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
29. Lysander -

With all due respect, this site was not exactly crawling with McCain backers in the primary season. Go pick that fight somewhere else where people who were actually excited about McCain winning the nomination actually exist.

Posted by: Eric Earling on November 4, 2008 10:13 PM
30. I'm incapable of understanding how anyone of any party could sit in Seattle traffic for 4 years and STILL vote for that annoying woman. Insanity is all I can come up with.
Ok, we get to see what a Democrat utopia looks like, or their attempt at it anyway. United States of San Fransicko.

Posted by: scott on November 4, 2008 10:34 PM
31. vote.wa.gov is showing 829,174 ballots still to be counted, and that is without any numbers at all from Pierce and Spokane Counties. I don't think it's quite over yet.

Posted by: katomar on November 4, 2008 10:43 PM
32. Eric:
You are missing the point. Regardless of who you supported in the primary... it is meaningless if you blindly support the party nominee afterwards. You have to look beyond one election.

Yes you did no support McCain in the primary but the understanding that you would support him if elected led many others to support him. They knew they had your vote regardless and therefore moved AWAY from your beleifs to go get the liberal vote.

If you look at it long term, you need to show that your support can NOT be counted on but rather earned. McCain by no stretch of the imagination earned our vote. And now we have to worry that party leadership will push another crappy cndidate on us again because of the support McCain recieved AFTER he was nominated.

Posted by: Lysander on November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
33. 31% out of King Co. for Rossi? Ouch...

2004 Rossi was at 40%...

Posted by: Glenno on November 4, 2008 11:04 PM
34. GO CHRIS!!!!!!

DOWN WITH THE BIAW!!!!

Posted by: ThomasG on November 4, 2008 11:09 PM
35. Lysander -

Believe what you like. The fact you earnestly support Ron Paul and actually believe he would have been an effective national candidate means the gap between our thinking is so large that there is little point in continuing this discussion. I would note that the overwhelming share of Republican primary voters were more in my camp than yours.

Posted by: Eric Earling on November 4, 2008 11:10 PM
36. State income tax!!!!!!

Posted by: Andy on November 4, 2008 11:48 PM
37. I just would like to take this moment and say:

Suck it you douche bag republicans. Your time is over.

Thank you.

Posted by: haha on November 5, 2008 12:49 AM
38. Geeez Sir Dino, I grew to like you and you got my vote, but your demeanor last night was classless. The illegal votes died in a Yakima court room, GET OVER IT and reach out to the Governor and show a little class. That was real disappointing and may be, just may be - the better person won.

Posted by: Duffman on November 5, 2008 05:11 AM
39. Eric:
The overwhelming majority in washington were not in favor of McCain. It is just that by the time we had our primary the GOP leadership had decided he was our man because of previous primaries and who had dropped out.

Look if you think the liberal policies of McCain are the way the GOP should move then I agree... we have nothing further to discuss. I however hope that you can get past your dislike of Paul and move back to the GOP mainstream of small government.

Posted by: Lysander on November 5, 2008 05:02 PM
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