Pierce: Oh, never mind.

Snohomish: It, and perhaps Pierce, are the closest thing to pure swing counties we have in Washington state. Gregoire was ahead on election night in 2004. Rossi's strength in poll and late absentees gave him the eventual win by a couple points. Given conservative leaning, late-ballot trends we've seen since that year, if Rossi is within 3-4% tonight then we probably have a very tight race on our hands. Anything more in Rossi's favor would be noteworthy.

Spokane: It's not as firmly Republican as people think anymore, Gregoire was actually leading on Primary Night in August. The larger the lead Rossi can have here tonight the better. The pro-Republican swing in later returning mail-in ballots in the primary was substantial here.

Benton & Yakima: ballot returns thus far indicate high turnout in these counties. On top of that, Rossi meeting or exceeding his final total in 2004 would be very significant (remembering that conservatives in close races have consistently improved their margins after the first day's counting in recent election cycles).

There's obviously more to watch, but those are my leading indicators...especially given how long it will take King to count.