There is a strong cohort of GOP challengers trying to pick off some seats seized by Democrats in recent cycles. In order of probability of switching, I have my eye on:
- Kevin Parker in the 6th LD (Spokane): a lean Republican district picked off in the Democratic tide of 2006. Parker has run a strong campaign, aided by ample independent expenditures from assorted arms of the business community. The Democratic incumbent is not dynamic. This is the best pick-up opportunity of the cycle for Republicans.
- Jan Angel in the 26th LD (Kitsap): a swing district, perhaps with a slight Republican lean. Angel is a sitting County Commissioner and has a good chance to take this seat back.
- Toby Nixon in the 45th LD (eastern King): a swing district, trending slightly blue. Nixon's past legislative service for the district provides a strong foundation, but he is running against a well-funded Democratic incumbent.
- Mike Hope in the 44th LD (Snohomish): a slight lean-Republican district. Democrat Liz Loomis is a quasi-incumbent after being appointed to fill the seat left vacant by John Lovick's ascension to Sheriff. Loomis has a history of losing more local races than she's won. Hope, until this year, has under-performed his resume as a candidate. This year's his campaign seems crisper, focused, and enthusiastic. But, Democrats have been pouring money into this race.
- Steve Litzow in the 41st LD (eastern King): Litzow may have run the best campaign of any challenger. He's a great fit for his district, which continues to trend from purple to blue. Thus, the problem. A perfect campaign might net him 49.5%. If he can get in, he would be a great addition to the Republican caucus.
Summary point: the farther down the above list these races stay competitive, the better Republicans are doing.Posted by Eric Earling at November 04, 2008 05:58 PM | Email This