November 03, 2008
The Youth Vote & Rossi
We got another interesting data point over the weekend about a significant Obama-Rossi cohort in the ranks of younger voters. From yesterday's Seattle Times:
Yet the UW poll, among others, highlighted another trend that benefits Rossi.
Younger voters, ages 18 to 34, are expected to vote heavily for Obama. In Washington's governor race, though, they appear to be breaking for Rossi, 56 percent to 40 percent, according to the UW poll.
If true, that could prove significant. State records indicate that more than 340,000 new voters have registered this year, and roughly 60 percent are in that 18-34 age group.
That conforms with the last two SurveyUSA polls (here and here), which showed similar margins for Rossi in the 18-34 set. In addition, the crosstabs of Rasmussen's September survey in the state showed an even larger margin for Rossi in the 18-29 age-group.
Does that mean the youth vote is going for Rossi? It wouldn't surprise me. But just like the voter turnout issues discussed below on the main page, the same maxim holds: I'd rather see actual results.
Posted by Eric Earling at November 03, 2008
06:48 AM | Email This
1. Yeah, I found it interesting that my grand-daughter (a UDUB student) while adamantly for Sen Obama was in favor of Sir Dino also. She seemed to realize that from a fiscal standpoint our current Governor wasn't cutting it.
Morale: despite the football team, there's still hope for our U-Dubbers! :)
2. That also reflects what my 18 year old son told me. Some of his friends are voting for Obama and Rossi. He has tried to convince them of the truth of Obama but to no avail. Rossi seems to be getting the votes for the same reason as Obama. They like him. Has nothing to do with logic. Some refer to Gregoire as "the old biddy".
If the McCain/Palin ticket was reversed I think you would find a lot more support from the younger crowd.
3. It might be easier to take your opinions serious, if you didn't always "go Drudge" and simply cherry-pick data to fit your ever-changing and latest last-gasp theory, or endorse a candidate by prefacing it with absurd and fascist-like phrases such as, paraphrasing here, "People who love their country will vote for John McCain...". I mean, seriously, and you folks on the right can't understand why Congressional Democrats will be the beneficiary of two straight wave elections? By the way, that is ALMOST unheard of. Anyway, pick and choose the "facts" as you will and preface your endorsements with Limbaugh-like nonsense and good luck to ya! You betcha! Also! (Wink! Wink!) --- come on! Ya know that last bit madeja smile;)
4. Although it is doubtful the McCain/Palin ticket could every have been reversed, given the ego of McCain. It would be a better contest when and if Palin heads the ticket. McCain is a rerun of the Dole contest. Obama has a few things going for him - style and age and many things against him.
However, style will trump substance.
5. Me finks Snuffy is jokin', no? Seriously, he believes Palin (zero substance--just the usual hate-filled neo-loony right-wing theocratic blah-blah-blah) would make for a better contest? Wow! You've seen the polls, right? Caribou Barbie TERRIFIES the American people! Honestly, now, how long has she been at this now, "like five weeks" [wink! wink!] and, also, you pretend she is substantive? But, look, I'm still waiting for McCain and Palin to tell me what they're for---so far, all they've told me about is all the non-existent Obama policies (i.e. socialism) that they're against. When does Winky tell us what she's for---besides making women pay for their rape kits and witch doctors?
6. My 25 year-old daughter (MS WSU) and her police officer/army special forces fiance are voting for McCain/Palin and Rossi, as is my wife's equally sharp and successful daughter. Wife's daughter's husband is state employee, a bright and decent decent young man, but well indoctrinated at OSU and place of employment.
7. Really, Saltherring? You mention "police officer/army special forces" as if that makes your future son-in-law more valued by our Constitution than does it does, say, a university professor. BAD NEWS---it doesn't! It just makes him someone, who serves the public---hopefully, all the public and not just the ever-shrinking bits that support his political leanings. I wonder, really, if you folks ever take the time to watch old Nazi rallies and listen to Hitler speak and read his book and think to yourself, "Geez...I sound JUST like that!" I wonder, because you do---you sound just like those lunatics, but you already know that and like it, right?
8. Big Mac, I've got to hand it to you, for a 72-year old I believe you've impressed all with your energy and drive. You gave it your best shot; you erred on your VP pick and I believe you realize that now. However, this time around against such a 'popular' new driving force echoing the National cry for 'change' you didn't have a chance. God Bless you for your service to this Country and I wish you well in your senior twilight. Ms Palin, like I've said heretofore, a good try but please consider a re-focus on your beautiful family - you will find that a much more 'rewarding' endeavor. :)
9. Hey! Who do you folks believe is a bigger threat to the sanctity of marriage: a) A preacher in a hotel room snorting crank with a male prostitute b) John McCain marrying Cindy, while still married to his first wife--who he dumped after she was disfigured in a car accident c) Sarah Palin diddling her hubby's business partner (the guy passed a lie detector test) d) openly gay people professing their love and commitment to their partner...just wonderin'?
10. Hey, we've got us a new troll (A. Alex), and he's as mindless as most of the others. He believes Sarah Palin scares more people than Barak Hussein Obama, who hangs with domestic terrorists, card-carrying communists, America-hating preachers and Palistinian radicals. He also praises university indoctrinators (he refers to them as professors) and attempts to tie anyone who disagrees to Hitler and Nazis. Better grow a brain before you present your drivel here, dimwit.
11. It wouldn't surprise me (i.e., Youth vote swinging towards Rossi). What is misunderstood by many, especially here, is the youth are probably more post-partisan politics than their parents generation. Yes, there are still Young Republicans and Young Democrats, but the youth are probably more centrally focused and focused on unity vice divisiveness. CG hasn't really given a reason to vote for her, so in a change election, they will go with a change, as opposed to me, who "chickened" out and went with the known over unknown, when it comes to the Governor's race.
12. Hey Alex,
I have photographs of the Nazi rallies, I've lost family members to the insanity, and I don't think you have any idea what you're talking about.
Hitler was promising Change. A return of Germany's standing in the world. Lower taxes on the working people. Screwing the rich.
He was glib, persuasive, magnetic and compelling.
I see the same freaking thing with 100,000 turning up for Obama rallies..
Obama wants a "Civilian National Security Force"? Really? Funded at the same freaking level as the actual military? What the flaming hell?
13. Youth are tired of seeing their tuition go up to the max allowed, year, after year, after year.
14. What's the message here:
Youth like change when they are convinced, or it is readily apparent, that things are not working. Taking turns has been ingrained in them since they were in elementary school.
In a national view, that could mean a Democratic sweep. But in a state-wise view, the Democrats are the establishment getting nothing done, so it's Rossi's turn. 24 years in power does a number on your ability to see the forest for the trees.
We'll see how it goes Tuesday night, but if Rossi wins, the Democrats better watch their backs in the Legislature, because if they try to be obstructionists, they might find themselves in the minority in four years.
15. While I'm with Eric in being cautious until we see the actual results, I find myself unable to resist being encouraged by the above ''younger voter'' data; i.e.:
''... , they appear to be breaking for Rossi, 56 percent to 40 percent''.
That is a HUGE margin for a group expected to go heavily for Obama in WA.
And I wouldn't be surprised if a significant part of the reason for that is as simple as the perceptive observation made by Vince @ #2:
They like him. Dino is easily the most likeable candidate; by FAR.
Having attended events where Dino was there in person half a dozen times, I've been wishing every voter in WA that might still be on the fence in this race could get to meet him in person:
Even though he comes across very well on TV, IMO he is even better in person:
You can talk to him just like he was your long-time friend and neighbor. Can y'all imagine talking to Gregoire that way ?? (I thought so).
SIDEBAR: My ''young people for Rossi'' story:
I've got 3 ''Rossi for Governor'' yard signs in the windows of my big van; and have had a lot of people over here in Okanogan County tell me they really like my signs.
But perhaps the comment on my window signs that stands out more than all the others:
While I was going thru the checkout line at the local Winthrop market, one of the teenagers bagging groceries who saw my signs told me:
''I sure hope Dino Rossi wins''.
I said something to the effect of ''you've got that right'', and didn't reflect on it a lot right at the time. But later it occurred to me that here was an ''upper-teen'' who was not just on the fence or even leaning towards Dino:
He was REALLY hoping Dino wins.
So say we all; and if the Rasmussen and UW Polls are picking up similar sentiments in a wide swath of younger voters, that could be a key factor in allowing Dino to successfully swim against the (D) tide in WA this year.
Last chance to help out on a phone bank to call those remaining prospective (R) voters that the county auditor reports as not voting yet:
Get on with it.
16. ..."but if Rossi wins, the Democrats better watch their backs in the Legislature, because if they try to be obstructionists, they might find themselves in the minority in four years."
Let's hope this is true, as victory for Rossi in Dimocrat-dominated Washington would be nothing short of a mandate. In any case, it will require years and perhaps decades to undo the damage done in the four years the Queen and her court (legislature) have reigned.
17. "I wonder, really, if you folks ever take the time to watch old Nazi rallies and listen to Hitler speak and read his book and think to yourself, "Geez...I sound JUST like that!" I wonder, because you do---you sound just like those lunatics" ~ A ALEX
Interesting that it's your candidate attempting to create an SS corps of "civilian security forces". Your candidate is right out central casting for 1938 Germany. Ummm. yeah, but we're the nazi's right? Dolt.
19. That's an interesting link, Pudge...especially because our numbers are eerily similar to the national average...way too close to be accurate. Pretty sure most of the kids won't vote until tomorrow, though.
Also, it has McCain/Palin securing all of 19 electoral votes, losing both Alaska and Arizona. They might pull a few more than 19...even blowout projections have them in the 165-185 range. If Obama holds Pennsylvania, then he'll probably clinch it out west somewhere late Tuesday night. If he doesn't, and the South continues to trend toward McCain, the litigators' phone banks on both sides will be lighting up.
20. Niccolo, you wonder how much of a reflection these kids' voting is of the general public, and if Obama wins with over 60 percent and Dino edges out Gregoire, makes you wonder whether if Obama only wins with 55, if Dino doesn't win by about 5.
I am not predicting anything, but when the votes are counted, I wonder how well this will match up.
21. I still can't believe a majority of people support the socialist, empty suit Obama, particularly with all his questionable associates/advocates. I guess the bush/chimp/hitler syndrome must be more all-encompassing than I previously thought. I'm certain the actual results will be much closer than the pre-election polls indicate.
22. I go to the UW, and I know A LOT of students who are voting for Obama and Rossi.
23. I believe a lot of voters are in the "Throw all the bums out" mentality. Unfortunately this only applies to heads of state because many Americans don't realize that the Governor and the President don't and can't do everything.
24. Not sure why this hasn't been mentioned but how many of those 340,000 new registrations actually belong to living eligible voters?
25. So far in this election cycle, I am voting *against* someone, not *for* someone.
Isn't that fabulous?
26. I expect Rossi to run a bit better in Seattle than he did in 2004. It's hard to imagine how he could do worse with some of Christine's shortfalls on the Viaduct, etc. Seattle voters probably tend to be younger, too, I expect. If the youth vote goes for Rossi as big as the polls seem to indicate, we can expect gains in college towns like Ellensburg, Bellingman, and Pullman. It might be big enough to flip Whatcom to the Rossi column. I think that Gregoire's name is mud in much of rural western Washington, I would think that she could well lose the remnants of old blue collar rural Washington like Cowlitz (definitely), Grays Harbor (probably), and Pacific (maybe). Snohomish is the only county that Rossi carried that I could see flipping to Gregoire but it will be close and possibly not that significant.
If it turns out this way, Gregoire will end up carrying only King, Thurston (Gov't bureaucrats and leftist students at Evergreen State--a college that makes UW look like Oral Roberts U) and the two trust fund counties of San Juan and Jefferson (Port Townsend).
It's entirely possible Rossi will carry 35 of 39 counties (up from 31 in '04)--but that doesn't mean he will win.
27. Here's seriously hoping b2 is right @ #26, WRT Gregoire carrying only King, Thurston, San Juan, and Jefferson. I agree with b2 that Dino should win Cowlitz County this time; but that Grays Harbor, Pacific, and Snohomish are question marks.
I'll add my own prediction (REAL easy to make):
Dino will again win every last county east of the Cascade Crest; most of them by large margins.
But as b2 also alluded to:
The margin for Gregoire in King County will (again, drat) bear close watching as the counting drags on.
28. b2, I liked your "trust fund counties" reference as I am a rare conservative Republican who has lived in JeffCo for decades. The "trust funders" settled in Port Townsend in the last 20 years or so. Many are 60's hippies posing as artists, musicians or writers, but they mainly hang out with other losers, smoke pot and wait for their aged parents back east or in California to send their monthly allowance. If the money dies up, the deadbeats threaten to move back home and mom and dad willingly shovel out another load of cash.
29. That shows that appearance counts a lot (too much) for the 18-34 age group. Appearance and character favor Rossi. Appearance only favors BO. Character (not to mention experience) is clearly in favor of John McCain.
What is sad, maybe tragic is that many voters are shallow and superficial when they consider who they will vote for. Especially in the case of POTUS - they will select a good-looking empty, stealth leftist (in some cases a Marxist) over an older, courageous former war hero who has a track record of working across the aisle and is a centrist and can do more to heal our nation and be a leader in the war on radical Islam. It is nothing but sheer laziness and misplaced priorities that keeps many voters from correctly determining who they should vote for President. Hope that the end result does not come back and bite us in the a** soon, which is will happen if Obama is elected.