A statewide poll done through the University of Washington (results available via PowerPoint at this site) declares Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 55% - 34% and Christine Gregoire ahead of Dino Rossi 51% - 45%.
Depressingly, the poll samples 600 registered voters rather than likely voters, even though the poll was mere weeks from Election Day and as most voters have ballots in hand.
Here's the interesting part: in 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush 50.2% to 44.6% (with Nader scooping up another 4.1%) in the Evergreen State. In 2004, the margin was 52.8% for John Kerry to Bush's 45.6%.
This blogger is the first to admit John McCain will likely under-perform Bush's numbers from 2004 on November 4th. Yet, the Washington Poll says McCain is losing by over double the margin by which Gore and Nader's combined totals beat Bush in 2000.
Is that likely? No. The poll, complete with its questionable sample of registered voters, appears to significantly over-sample Democrats.
Rossi thus being that close, despite the handicap of the poll's construction,
provides yet another indication that we have another obnoxiously tight election on our hands.
Footnote: so to does this from Sunday's Joni Balter column:
Rossi's private pollster and Gregoire's pollster both say the race is very close but won't say which candidate has the advantage.
Can you say "coin flip"?
Posted by Eric Earling at October 27, 2008 08:17 PM | Email ThisA month out Rossi was down by 10
A week out Rossi was down by 2
Then the Election Eve poll came out, Rossi up by 6
Keep the Faith!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Glenno on October 27, 2008 08:25 PMThere's still the soft warm fuzzy feeling of voting ones conscience though.
Posted by: deadwood on October 27, 2008 08:41 PMThe Obama bubble will pop. It would be sad if it did not pop until after November 4th. Because if Obama gets elected, we are in for an extension of the stock market crash for the next 4 to 8 years. Not to mention every radical ideological concept being implemented at the expense of liberty.
Posted by: bananaland on October 27, 2008 09:52 PMThe results seem to me a tad on the Democratic side. Obama could certainly double Kerry's 2004 margin -- after all, the nation has shifted the seven points that would require. But tripling it seems a little unlikely.
My guess on the RV vs. LV thing is that smaller pollsters tend to dislike the idea of venturing a Likely Voter methodology. They're afraid it may end up discluding voters, especially in a state like Washington where almost everyone gets a mail ballot, and consequently voter turnout will be exceptionally high among "unlikely voters."
After all, the LV test is typically whether someone voted in the prior presidential election -- but since then, many former poll voters have forcibly been converted to mail voters, which arguably makes them more likely to vote.
But I'm rambling :)
Posted by: Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson on October 27, 2008 10:16 PMWhat do you want to bet that they will "find" more ballots in King County again?
Posted by: blindman on October 28, 2008 07:48 AMWho ever said they were oversampling Democrats is a complete idiot. Survey USA had GOP at only 24% and another poll had GOP at 25% so looks like the UW poll may have oversampled Republicans.
Posted by: evergreen on October 28, 2008 09:03 AMThe only reason Obama has even survived this far is by abandoning everything he ever said or stood for, and by jettisoning all his original friends to try and recast himself as a middle of the road guy (har har har, the jokes on you).