October 21, 2008
Ridiculous: Elway - Gregoire 51 v. Rossi 39 - UDPATED

The latest chuckle inducer from Stu Elway says as much. This time the results include:

One of the major story lines of state polling has been that Gregoire has lagged behind Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) considerably more than downticket candidates in other states. This Elway poll shows a continuation of that with Gregoire winning the support of only 83 percent of Obama voters, but on the other hand Rossi, too, lags behind his party's standard bearer, receiving just 86 percent of Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) supporters.

Raise your hand if you believe a higher percentage of McCain voters - what's left of them in Washington state - are voting for Gregoire than the percentage of Obama voters ready to cast a ballot for Rossi.

That's what I thought.

Flashback: Elway's pre-primary poll included a 16% Gregoire lead and had Rossi behind in eastern Washington. Reality check from the actual primary results [pdf]: Gregoire won the primary by only 2% and won none of the 20 counties in eastern Washington.

Final point of complaint: Elway continues to use a small sample (405) of registered voters. Other pollsters following the general election have long ago switched to a caller screen for the more realistic universe of likely voters. Why Elway refuses to do so is a mystery.

UPDATE: If Elway is correct, why do Lynne Varner and Danny Westneat keep running into Obama-Rossi voters in the suburbs?

UPDATE II: Nice comeback from Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait to the Herald's Jerry Cornfield:

If anything, this new poll makes us more optimistic than ever about winning. If Elway had us down 16% before the primary and we ended up within two points, than an Elway poll showing us down 12% must mean we're headed toward victory on Election night.
Posted by Eric Earling at October 21, 2008 06:45 PM | Email This
Comments
1. I will agree with Eric that the Elway poll results are a bunch of baloney. The race is pretty even, and I think Rossi might actually be ahead by a point or two if the election were held today.

But Stu Elway is still a REPUBLICAN, okay?

Posted by: Richard Pope on October 21, 2008 07:21 PM
2. Remember the only poll that counts in Nov. 4th!

If Rossi could meet everyone in the State, the vote would 99% Rossi to 1% Gregoire.

Posted by: Glenno on October 21, 2008 08:06 PM
3. Get real. Elway was Gregoire's pollster/booster in her town hall meetings around the state for the past several years, and he clearly supports her. If you don't believe me go to the TVW Web site and watch him on a TVW show a couple years ago with Gregoire's communications director. He was simply gushing about our "wonderful governor." The guy's her lackey.

Posted by: Harper on October 21, 2008 08:54 PM
4. You mean if Rossi meets everyone in WA with a gun to their heads.... No one wins 99% of the votes, and to wish that is someone anti-democratic don't you think?

N.B. Speaking of credibility, the poll does NOT say a higher % of McCain voters are voting for Gregoire than Obama for Rossi. In fact, it says the opposite.

Posted by: Sconehead on October 21, 2008 10:09 PM
5. Stu Elway is a Republican like Colin Powell is.

Posted by: Camille on October 22, 2008 07:14 AM
6. @1 - Eric doesn't seem to be questioning whether or not Elway is a Republican. He seems to be questioning whether or not Elway is a halfway decent pollster.

Posted by: IMFletch on October 22, 2008 07:51 AM
7. Richard Pope--
Hey Richard, previously you predicted Gregoire would win by 3-5 points. Obviously you have had a significant revelation since a month or so ago. Seems like you are, what do tj\hey call it, FLIP-FLOPPING!
Are you going to become a Republican AGAIN??
Seriously, I cannot believe you would find much in common with the David KLOWNstein TEAM HORSESASS group you somehow are trying to endure yourself to.

Regarding Elway...
Wouldn't you think that after Elway's dismal past rack record (like the Primary), that he would change his polling methodology.
It's like Stu is saying:
I MAY BE WAY WRONG, BUT DAMMIT, I'M CONSISTENTLY WAY WRONG!

I could care less what the pollsters political affiliation is. Like IMFletch just said, is Elway a halfway decent pollster or not?
If you judge based on results, the answer is obviously NO.

Any a$$hole can do a poll..as Elway has proven.

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on October 22, 2008 08:30 AM
8. Why is Elway still in business?

Posted by: b2 on October 22, 2008 10:02 AM
9. Does he have the break down in party affiliation of those polled? Where did he poll, downtown Seattle, Puget Sound area, where? Seems like he calls enough people to get the results he wants and then calls it good. Sure hope Stu Elway does not teach statistics.

Posted by: jim on October 22, 2008 02:37 PM
10. Camille @#5, I could top your statement with:

Stu Elway is republican like Richard Pope once was.

Posted by: DopioLover on October 23, 2008 08:29 AM
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