The latest chuckle inducer from Stu Elway says as much. This time the results include:
One of the major story lines of state polling has been that Gregoire has lagged behind Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) considerably more than downticket candidates in other states. This Elway poll shows a continuation of that with Gregoire winning the support of only 83 percent of Obama voters, but on the other hand Rossi, too, lags behind his party's standard bearer, receiving just 86 percent of Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) supporters.
Raise your hand if you believe a higher percentage of McCain voters - what's left of them in Washington state - are voting for Gregoire than the percentage of Obama voters ready to cast a ballot for Rossi.
That's what I thought.
Flashback: Elway's pre-primary poll included a 16% Gregoire lead and had Rossi behind in eastern Washington. Reality check from the actual primary results [pdf]: Gregoire won the primary by only 2% and won none of the 20 counties in eastern Washington.
Final point of complaint: Elway continues to use a small sample (405) of registered voters. Other pollsters following the general election have long ago switched to a caller screen for the more realistic universe of likely voters. Why Elway refuses to do so is a mystery.
UPDATE: If Elway is correct, why do Lynne Varner and Danny Westneat keep running into Obama-Rossi voters in the suburbs?
UPDATE II: Nice comeback from Rossi spokeswoman Jill Strait to the Herald's Jerry Cornfield:
If anything, this new poll makes us more optimistic than ever about winning. If Elway had us down 16% before the primary and we ended up within two points, than an Elway poll showing us down 12% must mean we're headed toward victory on Election night.Posted by Eric Earling at October 21, 2008 06:45 PM | Email This
But Stu Elway is still a REPUBLICAN, okay?
Posted by: Richard Pope on October 21, 2008 07:21 PMIf Rossi could meet everyone in the State, the vote would 99% Rossi to 1% Gregoire.
Posted by: Glenno on October 21, 2008 08:06 PMN.B. Speaking of credibility, the poll does NOT say a higher % of McCain voters are voting for Gregoire than Obama for Rossi. In fact, it says the opposite.
Posted by: Sconehead on October 21, 2008 10:09 PMRegarding Elway...
Wouldn't you think that after Elway's dismal past rack record (like the Primary), that he would change his polling methodology.
It's like Stu is saying:
I MAY BE WAY WRONG, BUT DAMMIT, I'M CONSISTENTLY WAY WRONG!
I could care less what the pollsters political affiliation is. Like IMFletch just said, is Elway a halfway decent pollster or not?
If you judge based on results, the answer is obviously NO.
Any a$$hole can do a poll..as Elway has proven.
Posted by: Mr. Cynical on October 22, 2008 08:30 AMStu Elway is republican like Richard Pope once was.
Posted by: DopioLover on October 23, 2008 08:29 AM