If reports are true that the McCain campaign thinks Colorado is a substantial problem and some other states (like Iowa) are probably lost then this confirms recent pessimism that things do not look good.
Yes, the national race could close. But losing Colorado - and perhaps Virginia - means Obama is on the cusp of Electoral College victory, even if McCain holds Florida, Missouri, and Ohio.
Indeed, McCain supposedly relying on Pennsylvania to tip the scales is not exactly encouraging.
In poker terms, Obama hit his flush on the turn (thank you financial sector meltdown!), now McCain is stuck holding two-pair, praying to make a not-so-likely full house on the river.
It's not over, but McCain needs help.
UPDATE: I would note that regardless of whether or not John King's report is accurate and Colorado appears problematic, New Mexico and Iowa are virtually lost. And Virginia looks to have some serious problems post-financial sector meltdown. Polls, observations from the ground, and assessments from analysts with an understanding of Virigina's electoral history all point to a sputtering McCain effort there.
It's still winnable, but electoral reality also needs to be faced.
Posted by Eric Earling at October 20, 2008 08:47 PM | Email ThisThis may be hard news for the netrooters, the urban liberals, and the idealistic youth whose collective undergarments have frequently been moistened in the throws of Obama-mania. But, it is what it is. The county-by-county maps of Ohio and Pennsylvania look awfully similar: islands of urban, Obama liberalism, surrounded by a sea of working class support.Does anyone think that trend will be reversed in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky? Does anyone think Obama isn't going to consequently have significant problems in key portions of the Rust Belt come this fall? With states like Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and even perhaps Pennsylvania on the table in November, is that really path Democrats want to go down?
In the comments, I wrote:
But in the end, they'll vote for a pile of dogshit before they'll vote for a rich Republican from Arizona.
To everyone else here, please keep calling Obama a traitor, a socialist, and whatever other crazy nonsense is being blown up your ass by Rush Limbaugh. The help McCain needs is for you guys to shut your pie-holes.
Posted by: thehim on October 20, 2008 08:54 PMI live in Minnesota and I am from Wisconsin---Obama is up double digits in both states, so, yes, I suspect Obama WANTS to go down 'that' path. Especially, since McCain pulled out of Michigan and now trails by huge margins. I suspect, in the end, Obama will lose Ohio (he's only half-arsed it there anyway and it is a tie right now), he is up 15 in Pennsylvania, up 10 in Virginia (Rasmussen poll) etc. etc. etc. I don't understand why McCain pulled out of Michigan so early and have no clue as to why he is ditching Colorado. Oh--and he's surrendering NM and Iowa too. 'Splain to me how McCain wins this thing?
Posted by: A. Alex on October 20, 2008 09:08 PMEver wonder why he is breaking every single fund raising record?
Because (Reality Based) Americans want change.
Time to get used to saying "President Obama" wouldn't you think?
The Powell effect hasn't even hit the polls. This election may make Ronnie the destroyer's (Mr. VooDoo Economics) landslide look like a close call.
Hey WFP. It's you, and your hate filled friends that should leave our nation. Maybe you can invade Canada, kill everyone living there, and call it JesusLand or something.... You know they're "Socialists" don't you? Go spread "dimocrissy" eh...... I said eh! Get it?
Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on October 20, 2008 09:21 PMBut you Republicans should want Obama in charge for the next four years of recession. Who wants to run the nation now? It will all be a big disaster.
Poor Ben Bernanke. I'd say that Alan Greenspan got out just in time!
All of the electoral college votes for the state of Washington will almost undoubtedly go to Obama no matter how any of us individual SP readers vote. So I am voting for Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate.
It has been obvious for months now that McCain is toast. The war is unpopular and the Republicans have alienated the fiscal conservatives in their base by spending like drunken sailors. McCain can't even unify the social conservatives by himself. The Republican politicians deserve a good beating. Maybe they will come back in four or eight years with a Reagan or a Gingrich or something.
But I won't be holding my breath.
Divided government would have been better. Gridlock is good. But the R's need to be taught a lesson for violating their own principles.
It is clear that that will happen.
Posted by: Bruce Guthrie on October 20, 2008 10:19 PMand that was her 2nd if not her 3rd stop in Colorado.....to massive overflowing crowds waiting in the cold and rain for her..
and she's going back there on Saturday....
the popular vote is there...
bama better worry....with his war chest fo hundreds of millions from unknown foreign nationals, he can't put McCain away.....the massive msm fraud reporting, the millions from the middle east, he just can't do it...
McCain and Palin....going to the White House while bama and his supporters wonder what happened....
its going to be 2000 and 2004 all over again.....the democrat "winning" the polls and the Pub winning the election....
what a beutiful thing to watch....
Posted by: lee on October 21, 2008 01:19 AMno more elections?...bomb Israel?....could be anything..
If...that is a huge if....if hussein swindles the idiots and he is elected...fraud or whatever....Israel will probably move very soon to end Irans' nuclear facilitites...which means hussein will be ushering in a nuclear war....
you rest easy,now ....
"you know democracy is going to fail after talking to the typical voter for 5 minutes"...AAlex ...that is you in a nutshell....an idiot....
Posted by: lee on October 21, 2008 01:28 AMBarack Obama is about as 180 degrees away from true "American patriotism" as you can get, but he's a natural for being a "Red Square" patriot.
Posted by: Rick D. on October 21, 2008 05:35 AMHad he come out championing free markets he would be leading in the polls right now. Maybe that fact will encourage republicans to never again nominate non free market proponents.
Posted by: Lysander on October 21, 2008 05:38 AMSo I wonder is Seattle is where the "Non Real Americans" live.
Maybe someone should ask that witch that thinks the world is only 6,000 years old where in America the Non-real Americans live. You know. The folks that don't want the constitution urinated on, and don't want biblical law to be the law of the land. I really don't think we should be stoning to death our children....
Who in the hell could support these lying, smearing, pathetic lunatics. Jeez.
Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on October 21, 2008 06:27 AMYour point utterly excludes how the recent financial sector meltdown changed the race. Prior to that the race was a toss-up. McCain was ahead in OH, MO, & FL. CO & VA were toss-ups. And MI & PA were competitive.
Now, much has changed.
Not only did the dramatic escalation of the economy send some voters scurrying to the opposite party of that in the White House, McCain's unsteady response intensified the problem.
I do believe none of that was contained in our discourse on the issues in the spring you refer to above.
Meanwhile, even after the events I just described, Obama is still under-performing a generic Democrat. Prior to that such differentiation was even more dramatic.
If you would like to believe Obama does not have substantial electoral weaknesses (in addition to obvious strengths), then be my guest.
Meanwhile, you may recall from my coverage of the Republican primary season that I was gravely concerned about McCain's ability to carry a message on the economy. That fear has been more than realized.
Posted by: Eric Earling on October 21, 2008 06:35 AMIt wasn't pretty.
I guess claiming he was a POW doesn't take care of every problem.
Eric is also right about the bigot effect on Obama's numbers. He should be leading by 25 points, and would be if he as 100% white, but change in attitudes comes slowly, even with Democrats.
Maybe all those robo calls can turn it around for him.
Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on October 21, 2008 06:57 AMTHAT ONE did nothing, played Joe Cool and was willing to let the economy collapse to further his dream of healing the earth and lowering the waters, etc. etc.
I am surprised, though, that we posted an article on the Colorado pullout by lefty John King. Following the Alinsky playbook, the Obama folks got Earling suckered into an early call and prediction of doom..
Posted by: swatter on October 21, 2008 07:09 AMYou must be referencing the 98% of blacks supporting Obama this election.
Posted by: Rick D. on October 21, 2008 07:13 AMThe problem with this scenario right now, is McCain has a lot less paths, especially by losing two "Kerry" states (Iowa and Colorado). This might be why he is still focusing on Iowa. However, since he didn't spend as much time as Obama (or Romney, Huckabee, and others) in Iowa during the Primary, McCain is coming from behind here. Add to this his hammering on Ethanol subsidies, which in itself isn't necessarily bad, it does hurt him in a "corn" state like Iowa.
To keep with the poker analogy, McCain to win (Electoral College) needs to pull at straight flush (Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and either Virginia or Pennsylvania). He also can't lose WV, Georgia (which is having great early turnout), and the Dakotas. I haven't actually played with the maps, but if one gives Obama the current strong and leans states, I believe McCain has to win all the remaining toss-ups and lean McCain states to even meet 270.
Posted by: tc on October 21, 2008 07:28 AMIf the MSM will shamelessly propagandize and violate the civil rights of non-"liberals" during a Presidential election, they will certainly not stop when their candidates are elected and there is a veto-proof government.
America's communist domestic enemies didn't evaporate after the 60's, they primarily burrowed into our infrastructure in the media, education, politics, and community cadre-building.
Now, 35 years later, we have the likes of former(?) Weatherman William Ayers cloning revolutionary "educators," former(?) Weatherman Wade Rathke into his 35th year at the helm of ACORN destabilizing communities, and their front man, the black racist Barack Hussein Obama, preparing to pound nails into America's coffin.
Biden gave it away yesterday when he said a foreign government would "test" Obama with a crisis (threat against America). Given the natures of the above players, that "crisis" will be used to justify our massive loss of freedom.
The buzzards are circling a dying nation. What will you do to save it?
Posted by: 5.62 on October 21, 2008 07:32 AM
As a lng time (3 years) suporter of Obama, I hope that he can restore us to a national sense of purpose and a unity amongst those of us who care more for America than for parties.
Let me offer two examples that have so far gone largely unheard on the right: schools and babies.
On babies, Obama has made very strong statements about trying to decrease teen pregnancy by a change in the culture. Surely we can all agree with is concern that his daughters NOT grow up in a society where 15 year olds need condoms.
In schools, Barack has pushed hard for master teachers and charter schools. Ius that a liberal or conservative point of view or it is a matter of consensus for us all?
My dream is that he will emerge as a President for all of us and that the middle .. with Republicans and Dems, will find common cause.
Posted by: SeattleJew on October 21, 2008 07:50 AM
Hell, even Washington could be in play this year! As Britain's "Iron Lady" said, "Now is no time to go wobbley." This election is closer than we're being told.
Full court press to the end!
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/21/is-the-msm-trying-to-suppress-the-vote-in-colorado/
Posted by: Ace O'Dale on October 21, 2008 08:59 AMWin lose or draw the him, all facts, seattle jew et. al. what happens if Obama is elected and the reality of the way he has lived his life until now keeps on going in the White House?
What if the stereotypes fed to you by the media about Him are not true? What if the constant drumbeat of Bush evil, everyone hates America, the worst time ever that can only be saved by Him does not come to pass? There is no evidence that commusocialism works anywhere ever. Even right now Eric has fallen for the media's fantasy that McCain is ready to throw in the towel and thus this post.
It is practically witchcraft to manipulate your minds into acting only in Fear Fear and Rage and Rage by the media. From Joel Connelly to CNN, CBS, ABC you are pounded on constantly about how McCain will only make things worse.
All I hear from the One is change. Change what? He campaigned with Raila Odinga and that has not good change for Kenya with the agreement to impose Sharia/Islamic law. Bill Ayres change of the education system has not been good. Rageful teachers that destroy civilization under the guise of liberation to do whatever you want. The 'church' that for 20 years fed his heart and mind constantly described an America that can only be achieved by massive removal of whites. A plumber asks him a simple question and we see his heart come out and we practically kill the plumber. Jessie Jackson himself said the 'Zionists' are going to be hurting if He is elected. SJ how does that ring?
Every 4 years you refuse to accept that freedom is for all and not an ideology that restrains and confines you. Neocons, conservatives, Christians, whites, Joe the Plumber all become places to dump your rage on. Are you going to calm down for a second and see what a gift the land is you live in right now?? Can you for a minute think that man that wants to pervert everything good and replace it with everything that is perverted will not achieve your dreams as an uniter?? How can a man that will throw on the chains of his dreams on everyone call his change good in the end?
Ultimately the left will riot, massacre, and kill thousands if they don't calm down win, lose or draw. Recently a poster in Bellingham was charged with a crime - tragically his point was not PC but the leftist posts here are so they get away with it. They are far more dangerous many of these leftist posts clearly threaten civilization with the Dreams of Your Father as your reason for existence. Good luck, remember put down the lawsuits, put down the hatchets, put down dreams of WTO2 take a deep breath and for a moment just think that a man's past does show us how he will lead. That McCain's father and grandfather were leaders themselves that they were proud of their country, that he does not worry about his past coming to light, that his past shows us we have a much better future with McCain than Obama.
Bottom line if Obama wins at the end of 4 years you'll be wondering when the next vote is coming. Biden already set the table for Marshall Law, Sunday asking for us to be hit! (Can you imagine if RL has said this??) This website will be gone, 20 million aliens turned into 'Americans' will be the new voting block and you'll wonder how the only candindates on the ballot only perfer Obama. Careful careful.
The PS- the HAMAS Endorsement
During the interview with WND's Aaron Klein and WABC Radio's John Batchelor, the Hamas figure also expressed hope regarding Sen. Barack Obama's "vision for change," announcing Hamas will send Obama a letter of congratulation "the moment he will win the election."
The GOP could never win on the issues, so they have to do all they can to keep the millions of new voters from casting ballots this November.
In state after state, they are making it harder to vote for anyone that moves, registered recently, or worse.
Half my HATE for the Republiconvicts stems from them doing all they can to keep legitimate American away from the polls. Add in a little of the outright election fraud like what happened to Governor Siegelman, that the Bush Justice (sic) Department never investigated. Then you have Katherine Harris, and Jeb Bush, along with Ken Blackwell making sure LEGITIMATE VOTERS can not cast ballots, or have their voices heard.
Paul Weyrich, the Father of the Right Wing Movement: "Now many of our Christians have what I call the goo-goo syndrome -- good government. They want everybody to vote. I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of people, they never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."
His words not mine.....
All Facts Support My Positions
Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on October 21, 2008 10:16 AMEric Earling contributed $0 towards helping McCain win.
Stefan Sharkansky contributed $0 towards helping McCain win.
Pudge contributed $0 towards helping McCain win.
If the Admins of this Conservative website don't believe in the the Republican Ticket why should you?
My how conciliatory of you TODAY after months of posting the typical Left-wing hate-speech over at HorsesAss. If you think anyone is going to buy your BS after your rantings & ravings about Sarah Palin, John McCain & others, you are crazy and evil. Besides, you aren't really a Jew in the religous sense, are you? I recall reading your posts where you proudly proclaimed your love relationship with atheism.
Consider your dreams squashed.
You have been wielding the sword viciously for years. Now if your guy gets in, you have a civility dream. Fat chance assmunch!
This web site has given me ammunition when I discuss issues with folks. Eric in particular has donated hours and hours for the R cause.
Posted by: swatter on October 21, 2008 10:30 AMWhen this campaign is over John Sidney McCain III and his campaign staff are all going to be a little embarrassed at the conduct they've endorsed in their fits of desperation. It's too bad that all they'll be left with is a totally radicalized shrinking base of paranoid supporters.
Posted by: Acid Brain on October 21, 2008 11:39 AM'Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God' - Republican Rep. Robin Hayes
Sounds like statement one of desperation and contempt for others who don't share the Grand Old Party's view of America.
Speaking of socialism, you know what I really fear the most? Having either Obama or McCain in the white house now that the other world leaders are talking about entering into a global financial regulatory system that will essentially end free-market capitalism and replace it with a feudalistic mercantilism. I'm afraid that both Obama and McCain would be willing to join in and thus willing to destroy our national sovereignty. This will make the WTO look like a tree-house club. We'll have foreigners (mostly Europeans) regulating the American economy like the WTO does now but more directly and at a lower more micro-economic level. Won't that be fun.
Back to my original point, I think it has always been pretty obvious that McCain wasn't Republican enough to provide a real contrast with Obama. The GOP would have put up a much better fight if they had nominated a true conservative that could lean toward the middle when needed.
McCain's problem is that he is socially liberal and fiscally liberal. Basically his problem is that he's a liberal. We should have nominated a small-government, fiscal conservative with socially liberal beliefs couched in a message of *liberty* not the leftist "social justice". Hrm...who best fits that list of qualifications? *cough* Ron Paul *cough*
The whole fiscal meltdown would have played right into Ron Paul's hands. He would be eating Obama's lunch right now in the home stretch. He'd be hammering home who and what is really responsible for the mess (e.g. the Federal Reserve, fiat currency, ridiculous over-spending) and outlining real solutions (e.g. cutting government way back, breaking up the federal reserve banking cartel, replacing entitlements with privatized systems--try looking up the Chilean private social security system sometime.)
Also, IMO, Palin just committed political sepuku today when she came out in favor of a federal constiutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Pushing for a constitutional amendment to force a particular social view really shows her ignorance of the founder's message and of how our federalist system was intended to work. Oddly enough, McCain's position that the states need to decide for themselves is exactly how federalism is supposed to work.
Here's my prediction for how the tossup states will go:
McCain: Nevada, North Carolina and Florida
Obama: Colorado and Ohio
Obama wins 293 to McCain's 245
Posted by: blindman on October 21, 2008 11:58 AM@29: Obama has a very, very high Unfavorable Rating of 44%, much higher than McCain's.
Let's see, in a Time poll, McCain was 50-39 favorable-unfavorable, while Obama was 59-36. RCP has it McCain 49.5-42.2, while Obama is at 56.2-36.7.
Explain to me how McCain's rating could be "much higher" in whichever poll you were referring to. Guess this means that people hate the crap that McCain is peddling even more.
@33: That page is incredibly misleading, provides no references, and stands in stark contrast to ALL other polling information out there. Lies won't help your fellow get elected.
Posted by: demo kid on October 21, 2008 12:20 PMThe general theory of mercantilism rests on the idea that the economy is a zero-sum game. It embodies the idea that any set of regulatory policies that benefit one party must equally harm another. In a globally regulated mercantilistic system, nations that enact locally beneficial economic policies (e.g. lowering taxes) would be seen as an attack on the economic prosperity of the other nations in the system since capital and talent would flow from the high tax nations to the low tax nation.
Here's an example of how a global mercantilistic regulatory regime would work. Let's say that the U.S. were to reduce corporate income taxes down to a flat 5%, that would be seen as a policy that will benefit American businesses and harm non-American businesses. The other members of this new global economic regulatory body that felt they were being harmed would be able to use the regulatory body to force us to raise our corporate income taxes again or penalize us in some other fashion (e.g. tarrifs, higher interest rates, etc). Essentially, we would be unable to act in our own economic self-interest without facing penalties in this global economic regulatory regime. I promise you, this is how wars start.
The feudalistic part comes from the fact that our economy is now dominated by multi-national corporations that control the vast majority of wealth. All of us worker bees are just commodities (dare I say serfs) working in the interest of and for the "protection" (i.e. retirement plans, health care plans, paychecks) by these corporations. The rise of the global corporate economy is only possible in the presence of pervasive government regulation that raises the barrier to entry so high that small players can't participate in the market place. Not only does it reduce competition and raise prices but it ossifies the social strata (i.e. kills the American dream).
Here's a good example of how regulation creates corporate feudalism: today you can not start a business designing, building and selling cars. There are so many crash test requirements and government regulations that it takes tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to start a business making cars. The only way anybody would be able to gather that much capital in one place is through a corporate structure.
So, it is feudalistic mercantilism. Get used to the idea of multi-national corporations operating in a massive, self-leveling sea of global regulations that prevent small players from entering in the market and nations from acting in their own self-interest. It sure sounds like it is coming to a country near you.
So AFSMP, Republicans aren't trying to make it harder to vote. They are trying to make sure that only legitimate voters cast ballots. We should all be interested in having strict controls on who gets to vote because it ultimately undermines the legitimacy of all elections.
For instance, if our governor election, if it is decided by less than a thousand votes, how will the winner ever be seen by the losing side as a legitimately elected governor when 25,000 felons--a portion of whom have not had their voting rights restored--were mailed ballots and probably voted.
Those illegal votes will be what the losing side points to and harps on for the next four years. So much for the "unity" Obama is preaching. Suspect elections destroy any possibility of "unity".
Posted by: blindman on October 21, 2008 12:32 PMBull. Voter caging is effectively disenfranchising Democratic voters, and it's a tactic by Republicans to depress voter totals. If you want to talk about reforming voting, that's fine, but don't do it a month before an election in a way where your side is looking to capitalize on aspects to gain maximum benefit.
Posted by: demo kid on October 21, 2008 12:38 PMThe bottom line is you want a full power grab, end America as we know it and try and put an end to your insane insecurity of not being liked and in the mean time get millions killed and you will not be in control in the end.
Those Sunday morning hangover sneer filled drives home going by churches packed full of those evil god freaks won't look so bad.
The tragedy in current America is a portion of the people living here are constantly threatening to impose their insanity on everyone. Why is it so important to do that? Why if you care so much about what the Europeans think about you then why do you care less about what your neighbor thinks? You just want to kill him for the McCain-Palin sign in his yard.
Do you just want another man's money to buy drugs with and sit at home?
Why is success to a liberal tied to the amount of helpless people in government programs instead of the amount of people free of the government? Why is government to a liberal about ending police and freeing criminals at any cost to society? Why is it that there is not any cost to a liberal goal and that every boogey man they see is a fellow American?
Funny thing, my household is comprised of one salary and three tuition bills (joys of a wife in school and the parenthood of two kids). By chance, I don't have the disposable income to be committing to ANY political contributions this year.
I also didn't donate any money to Mitt Romney during the primary season, yet does any regular reader during that time period doubt my fealty to that cause?
Posted by: Eric Earling on October 21, 2008 05:55 PMEric,
I would agree with you that the time commitment you have given more than offsets contributions. I don't always agree with you, but keep up the good work. It is always interesting to hear your take on the elections.