October 13, 2008
Budget Problems Predictable - UPDATED

Timothy Ellis, over at the otherwise apolitical "Seattle Bubble" real estate blog, lays out the case that Christine Gregoire relied on a predictably unreliable stream of real estate related taxes to fuel the excess state government spending that occurred on her watch.

Key highlights:

Claim: "I balanced the budget ... I've turned it into a surplus."
Christine Gregoire claims that she single-handedly took a $2.2 billion projected deficit for the 2005-2007 biennium and turned it into a surplus.

Reality: The budget practically balanced itself.

Two-year state tax revenues increased $5.3 billion between 2005 and 2007 (source: Washington State Department of Revenue), thanks to the booming economy including huge increases in property tax and real estate excise tax collections. Meanwhile, Gregoire has increased spending by $8 billion (source: Seattle Times). The budget was balanced despite Christine Gregoire, not because of anything she accomplished.

And:

Claim: "No corner of America has been able to avoid the failed economic policies of Washington, DC."
When discussing the projected $3.2 billion deficit for the 2009-2011 budget, Christine Gregoire puts the blame on George Bush.

Reality: Gregoire ignored repeated warnings from the state's top economist that the housing-fueled boom in the state economy was temporary and revenues would be returning to lower levels soon.

The truth is that the data and the public record confirm the idea that spending under Christine Gregoire has been recklessly high, relying on a temporary surge in real estate taxes that was sure to dissipate. Her defenders can blame that on the Legislature all they want. In the end, the Governor still had a veto pen.

Read the whole thing.

UPDATE: Surprise! State tax collections down yet again. Think they'll get any better in the next few months?

Posted by Eric Earling at October 13, 2008 02:25 PM | Email This
Comments
1. That is a good explanation over at "Seattle Bubble." The revenue increases caused by the construction boom should have been treated as the anomalies that they were rather than as an expected long-term trend in revenue growth. They would have contributed to a nice reserve fund for the hard times, if they hadn't been used for big spending increases.

One thing I noticed was that "Seattle Bubble" gave the impact on the "real estate excise tax" which applies to the sale of real estate, and then was taken to task by a commenter because the "REET" is a small part of total state general fund revenue.

Seattle Bubble should have shown the effect on sales tax revenues, which are collected on the services and materials used in new construction. Total sales tax revenues increased by 4.1% in FY03-04, 7.1% in FY 04-05, 11.1% in FY 05-06, 8.0% in FY 06-07, and 4.1% in FY 07-08.
(See Table 1 in each of the reports available at this state DOR page.)

When the state collects 6.5 percent of the price of services and materials that go into new construction, it causes a big jump in total revenue -- and the sales tax revenue is about half of the state's total revenue.

The slump in the construction industry has significantly affected state sales tax revenue collections.

Posted by: Micajah on October 13, 2008 02:59 PM
2. Claim: "I balanced the budget ... I've turned it into a surplus."
Christine Gregoire claims that she single-handedly took a $2.2 billion projected deficit for the 2005-2007 biennium and turned it into a surplus.
Reality: The budget practically balanced itself.

seriously... if politicians have to take heat and responsibility for BAD things they aren't actually responsible for, why can't they take some credit for the GOOD things they aren't responsible for?

Not ideal, of course, but it's fair.

Sound Politics and the double standards never get old.

Posted by: michaeluw on October 13, 2008 03:06 PM
3. I think that's quite a good analysis. Kriss Sjoblom, V.P. for Research at the Washington Research Council and a member of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors, has made a similar argument. Rep. Ed Orcutt of Kalama, a member of the state Forecast Council, also sounded warnings that the last two state budgets were built on sand.

Posted by: jack on October 13, 2008 03:21 PM
4. @2 Fine. Then we can agree that she took that surplus and turned it into a $3.2 billion deficit for the next biennium, eh?

Posted by: Palouse on October 13, 2008 03:21 PM
5. Politicians should be fired for making big mistakes just like employees in the private sector. Your chance to fire Gregoire comes up on Nov. 4th.

Posted by: Jeff B. on October 13, 2008 04:33 PM
6. But Gregoire was able to pay off so many of her buddies! The WEA, SEIU, the Tribes, the list is endless. They got what they wanted, and now they will turn out their members to vote.

So any news on what ACORN is doing in our state this time around?

Posted by: janet s on October 13, 2008 06:58 PM
7. Good for Timothy Ellis. But I wouldn't call this being political.

It's not political to point out a politician's errors and half truths; those are facts. It's only political when one does that while protecting equivalent inconvenient facts of his own side.

Posted by: Ron Hebron on October 13, 2008 07:36 PM
8. Christine, I have an idea. Borrow a bunch of money from China, and invade a country that was little to no threat to Washingtonians. Tell our fellow citizens putting us in more danger, and alienating the world against our state will somehow keep us safer. 3 trillion should do it when it is all said and done.

Worked for Bush.

Funny how the Republicons cry like little babies about our states projected deficit, but when we piss away 6 TRILLION at the national level, with nothing to show for it except new yachts for the uber rich, not a peep. Except of course when they want to cut heating oil subsidies to the elderly...

So pathetic tax avengers. What do you want to cut? Education? Health care for kiddies? Roads? Prison beds? Tracking of sex predators?

You want all this good government, but you don't want to pay for it.

Wahhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!! is all I hear.

(Profanity inserted here) You!

Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on October 13, 2008 08:15 PM
9. All F'd #8 How dare you call our Governor Christine! Her name is Chris, and you know it! Next thing you know, you will be using Obama's middle name and all hell will break loose.

Posted by: Moondoggie on October 13, 2008 08:47 PM
10. You want all this good government, but you don't want to pay for it.

We CAN pay for good government if we weren't wasting so much money on BS like public art at a waste treatment center or apartments for drunks or toilets for bums or bridges for animals or county computers obsolete before they are used or agritourism or mormon cricket research or the National Endowment for The Arts or PBS or LobsterCam or stadiums for privately owned sports teams or the Zero Energy House or Medicaid for dead people or artists lofts or Christmas tree inspections or state pensions for dead people or a sculpture park or licensing animal massage practitioners or "motivational interviewing" training at DSHS...

Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on October 13, 2008 09:07 PM
11. Ragnar. All the things you mentioned combined are about 30 minutes in Iraq.

I will agree them toilets were a waste though....

And to think we pay somewhere between 400 and 500 BILLION in interest every year for the Reaganomics failure caused national debt.

So you would be the first in line to cut military spending right?

Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on October 13, 2008 10:59 PM
12.
Here's where Democrat stupidity begins and ends.

1) http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008263676_simsbudget14m.html

"The county budget office projects shortfalls of $40 million in 2010 and $62 million in 2011. Moments after his speech, Sims came under fire from the County Council's budget chairman and other elected officials who suggested his proposed budget doesn't balance spending and revenues. The council will adopt a 2009 budget next month."

2) http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/380438_transitcost25.html

"Sound Transit says it will be $22.8 billion, including $17.8 billion in construction expense, inflation and all debt repayment costs, which are expected to continue through at least 2036."


Laying off workers because of a 60 million shortfall.

Yet, sinking us into another 22 billion worth of debt!

This is the foolishness of Sims-Gregoire-Nickles.

Posted by: John Bailo on October 14, 2008 06:30 AM
13. "Wahhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!! is all I hear."

Two things, then, factless: Since you're a leftist, and all leftists ever do is whine and bitch and moan like cut cats, for that to stop, you're going to need to actually get a few of your limited number of brain cells functioning, try to learn to think for yourself, and stop being the political moron you are.

Leaving the environment of hypocrisy and victimhood might actual;ly give your whiney little self some actual relief in that regard.

Second: Damn, factless. You need to stop hanging out at Kos and HA. NOBODY snivels like a "victim" of BDS.

Oh, wait. That's what YOU are.

My bad. Never mind.

Posted by: Hinton on October 14, 2008 08:08 AM
14. Did you know that ACORN receives 4% from each mortgage payment we make ? Congress enacted that law. Warm and fuzzy- huh ?

Christine Gregoire - Shameless LIAR. She will continue to run this state into the ground to feed her special interests, with more business and corruption as usual.

Elect Dino Rossi - one time only this time.

Posted by: KS on October 14, 2008 08:53 AM
15. Gregoire is banking on the hope Rossi cannot untangle her Budget "shell-game" in a manner the average voter can understand.

Let me try--
Gregoire has waaaay overspent on OUR credit card due to her addiction to OPM (other people's money). Now the Bill is due. The credit card company wants to be paid in the form of a balanced budget.
So Gregoire is digging under couch cushions for any money previously buried by various departments & programs. She is rolling over credit cards with new credit cards like not funding the State Retirement Fund. Gregoire is also trying to take back used items to merchants for refunds...and also having garage sales for what she cannot return.

Gregoire is just like the average credit card abuser!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on October 14, 2008 09:32 AM
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