It's easy to get absorbed in the latest poll, the most recent debate, or the issue of the week on the campaign trail. Let's take a step back a consider a few factors in the big picture:

1) Dino Rossi was an unknown quantity in 2004. Christine Gregoire's languid campaign coupled with his own energetic and effective work on the trail led to the surprising nail-biter we saw that year. One wonders what the outcome that year would have been if early absentee voters had partaken of more of the race before casting their ballots.

2) Rossi started this election cycle with significantly higher name ID and a formidable reservoir of good will with the voting public than many quality challengers in a major statewide race. He doesn't have to introduce himself this time to many voters, he simply has to build on his positive first impression to affirm: "yes, I'm yet again a solid choice to change the way Olympia does business given the problems we face."

3) Gregoire is an incumbent who is consistently polling under 50%. Depending on which political pro you talk to, they'll say the standard rule of thumb is that late-deciding voters in competitive races break 2 or 3 to 1 against the incumbent in years where the electorate is restive.

4) Gregoire isn't just under 50%; Rossi is gaining. Look at the trend from pollster.com:

Rossi has been trending up and Gregoire has been trending down since the campaign season (as marked by major ad spending by all sides) began in earnest. Something about Rossi is selling well - even in the face of $2+ million in negative ads run against him by Evergreen Progress. Something about Gregoire isn't. And let's be honest, none of the independent spending against her has been mind-blowing in its effectiveness either.

5) Gregoire's recent debate performance affirms her campaign is all about attacking Rossi. She doesn't have meaningful accomplishments that resonate with the current mood of the electorate. She doesn't have much of a vision for addressing top issues on the minds of voters. All she can do is try to dirty Rossi up and hope for the best in a state that otherwise leans blue.

Six weeks out from Election Day is a long time for any candidate, let alone an incumbent, to try and hold to such a strategy - at least without turning off voters. Rossi's ability to run an affable campaign that draws contrasts without being abrasive amplifies that dilemma for Team Gregoire.

Summation: there a lot of factors that mean Dino Rossi is in a great position to win this race. The problem remains he could run a great campaign and still end up with 49.97% of the vote...because Washington is Washington. But, his own campaign is in better position in 2008 than it was in 2004, while Gregoire's campaign has started flailing at an even earlier stage than the first time around.

Meaning: it looks like we can expect copious buckets of mud from Gregoire and her allies from here on out.