September 18, 2008
I Was Wrong!

I said I thought the projected budget deficit for Washington would soon be $3 billion. I was wrong. Now it's up to $3.2 billion.

Never fear, we have a rainy day fund, which will cover almost a quarter of that!

Let us remember what Governor Gregoire said in her 2006 State of the State address:

Our state budgeting has been a roller coaster. We spend when we have a surplus and we struggle to make painful cuts when the economy slumps. It is time to even out the ride. While the roller coaster is fun at the amusement park, it is no model for state budgeting.

By treating our budget like a Washington family budget -- we will ensure stability and avoid tax increases or Draconian cuts tomorrow.

And then in her 2008 State of the State, she said something similar:

For too long, state government spent in the good times, and then made painful cuts when the economy slowed. We are getting off that roller coaster, and we're making progress!

So in 2006, we were supposed to keep spending low so that when tough times came, we'd be able to weather them without tax increases or program cuts. In 2008, well, we want to make sure we don't have any program cuts. Notice in 2008, there's no mention of avoiding tax increases, because there's no plan to avoid tax increases.

We didn't keep spending low. We didn't "get off that roller coaster." We added 33 percent to the budget, and our revenues and savings couldn't come close to keeping up, and if Gregoire is re-elected, we will have massive tax increases.

Rossi has met this challenge before, and emerged victorious. Spending must be cut, without causing significant harm, and without raising taxes. Gregoire and the Democrats caused this problem, and they want to sink our economy even lower to try and tax and spend their way out of it.

Cross-posted on <pudge/*>.

Posted by pudge at September 18, 2008 03:22 PM | Email This
Comments
1. I'm still in awe that Gov. Gregoire has said she won't release, what was it--her traffic plan until after the election. Does she really think that kind of thing plays anymore? Gary Locke pulled that stuff, too.
Time to get the deadwood out of Olympia. Clean house. Get an actual leader in there, like Dino. She's had her chance. It's time for her to leave and make room for someone who WILL lead.

Posted by: Michele on September 18, 2008 03:43 PM
2. She'll just blame George Bush for the state deficit. That's her new political strategy to cover for her ineptness as governor. Nothing's ever her responsibility, except when the state's economy does well of course.

Posted by: Palouse on September 18, 2008 03:47 PM
3. Palouse, yes, of course. I actually meant to mention that; thanks for the reminder!

Good economy == Gregoire. Bad economy == Bush. It's so simple!

Posted by: pudge on September 18, 2008 03:53 PM
4. It's been so long since our state had any resemblence of fiscal sanity I'm not sure what it would look like. One proposal in Rossi's plan that is business as usual is using the generally liquid General Fund to prop up the budget while hard choices are made. The General Fund is only liquid because sales tax is used to rob from other public projects. It's a shell game and should be discouraged. Dino at least did admit this and proposed ending sales tax on highway projects...personally I would've chosen public schools as that would be politically smart and attack the same problem. Still luke-warm on Dino.

Posted by: Tracy on September 18, 2008 03:54 PM
5. Funny, Gregoire was just saying the other day that Washington was the "envy of the nation." Where's all that economic happy talk now? Has the Gov finally faced up to reality? It wasn't all that long ago she was in absolute denial, saying "no, no, we have a surplus!"

The second part of this equation, however, is how to solve the problem: raise taxes or cut spending.

Gregoire says raising taxes is her "last resort." That "last resort" trope is a tired one for Democrats (flash back to 1992!).

Of course, you'll also recall Gregoire said she wouldn't raise taxes during her run for Gov in '04. We all know how that turned out.

Hell even Frank Chopp was saying taxes were going to have to be boosted up, just this past legislative session!

And let us not forget Lisa Brown's lawsuit to undo the will of the people, and making raising taxes easier.

So there you have it folks, taxes are going up. That is, if the same old politicians are returned to Olympia.

Posted by: Muckraker on September 18, 2008 03:57 PM
6. Tracy: well, I'm sure that if we weren't facing a $3.2 billion deficit, Dino's views on how to handle spending would be a bit different. But we've got a huge problem to deal with and while I would love to see massive tax cuts and other major reforms, we probably just can't do it now.

And anyway, even if I was lukewarm on Dino: in a race with Gregoire, who has gotten us into this mess by doing precisely what she said we shouldn't do, it's no contest.

Posted by: pudge on September 18, 2008 04:00 PM
7. Couldn't agree with you more Pudge, I've long since vacated any notion that I'll completely be comfortable with anyone I throw the lever for. When I vote nowadays I do so with the attitude of a medical doctor: First, do no harm.

Posted by: Tracy on September 18, 2008 04:04 PM
8. Muckraker, exactly right. THEY WILL RAISE TAXES. Period. There is no question about it.

And they WILL, if they can, go for an income tax.

Posted by: pudge on September 18, 2008 04:11 PM
9. I'm looking at the State Office of Financial Management release about this and it says:

"The revised forecast leaves $86 million in unobligated General Fund revenue for 2007-2009".

That's what she means by the State is running a surplus? So it means we have a carryover (provided nothing gets worse until the next FY?

OK, so the deficit is $3.2 Billion which probably already includes the carryover. The release says she's saving $90m through a hiring freeze and takes credit for the only Republican initiative that passed the legislature recently--the Rainy Day fund--which as Pudge points out, will cover 1/4 of the deficit.

But the legislature can only get to that with a 3/5ths vote or if job growth is less than 1% in this state in the FY the spending will occur. I'm not sure we're there.

We're still down about $2.8 even with it.

Didn't Gray Davis conceal a deficit to get past the election, only to be recalled 11 months later?

I don't think they realize how much this will infuriate the voters.

Posted by: b2 on September 18, 2008 04:14 PM
10. b2: that assumes, of course, the voters KNOW. With Gregoire lying and with the Postman and Mak gone and with the rest of the media doing little to point it out ...

There's a gubernatorial debate on Saturday. This should be THE issue of the debate, taking up at LEAST half of it.

Posted by: pudge on September 18, 2008 04:24 PM
11. The State Retirement Fund also had a $5.1 Billion Deficit @ 6/30/07. They have $38 BILLION invested in equities...which have plummeted by 12-15% since 6/30/07. They also have huge real estate holdings.
I'll bet the deficit is now at least $8 BILLION.
And nothing will be said about this until after the election.
Gregiore==Fiscal Trainwreck

Oh and she is apparently just no working on her "secret plan" to cut spending and balance the Budget.

Gregoire's plan is soooooo secret, she doesn't even know what it is!!!!

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on September 18, 2008 04:43 PM
12. Hey pudge is the debate going to be televised live? What time ? What station? I would hate to see stuff end up on the editing room floor!

Posted by: Smokie on September 18, 2008 04:48 PM
13. 9 p.m. KOMO channel 4. Dunno if it is live. There's a Georgia @ Arizona State (I think) football game on before the debate ... hopefully it doesn't run long.

Posted by: pudge on September 18, 2008 04:55 PM
14. I've heard word that the Basic Education Funding Task Force will announce the conclusions of its study on Monday, 9/22, and it will call for a huge increase in taxes to pay for "basic" education. They claim that the constitution requires this, that education is the paramount duty of the state.

This isn't just a sideshow. Ross Hunter and Rodney Tom are the main writers of this report, which will be the basis for education "reform" in the next session. It seeks to redefine K-12 education, and provide a new model for how to fund it.

Read that as more teachers, more money for teachers, and a state income tax.

You can't ignore the public school system. You are paying for it. This is what happens when a state is dominated by one party.

Posted by: janet s on September 18, 2008 08:14 PM
15. Janet:

If they claim that, they are lying. There is no constitutional requirement to raise taxes, and they know it.

And any judge who would rule that taxes have to be raised deserves impeachment.

There's two irrational claims being made here. The first is the one above. The second is the one precipitating it: that we don't have enough money for basic education. We absolutely do.

To wit, I just ordered Flunked: The Movie.

I should post about that. I will!

Posted by: pudge on September 18, 2008 08:25 PM
16. Pudge - you are right, but you are arguing facts. The task force is arguing emotion and union power.

Our graduates are unprepared for college, huge percentages of kids are dropping out of school, and experienced teachers are leaving in droves because of pay.

Whether true or not, it satisfies the narrative and justifies a radical solution by the democrat elites. The only reason the republicans are participating is because they are tired of being left out of every discussion that happens in Olympia. That's why Fred Jarrett jumped - he wanted to hang out with the popular kids, and couldn't as a republican.

This has been brewing for at least a couple of years. I'm just saying - don't be surprised when the report is released. Gregoire will support it 100% because she has to.

Posted by: janet s on September 18, 2008 08:41 PM
17. Janet, oh I know, I am not arguing against you or anything. I am just expressing disgust at their lack of honesty, and disregard for liberty and law.

Posted by: pudge on September 18, 2008 08:52 PM
18. I just got done sitting through two weeks of a pointless strike, where the teachers got what they wanted and the district will put off good financial decisions to avoid conflict.

One union leader told me that if there was an injunction, there would be "war" from the teachers. That's when I decided that the district didn't have a chance. Yes, the judge would order the teachers back to work, but the legal maneuvering would delay opening the schools by at least another week or so.

The teachers and BEA held the students hostage in the their illegal blackmail. And it worked. Just wait for who is the target next year.

Until this state gets another voice besides corrupt dems and feckless repubs, we are lost. McKenna said he would support an injunction, but left town for the RNC. Everyone else was silent, which meant complete support for the BEA and WEA.

I point out to my dem friends that they have been in charge of education for at least a generation, so if it is broken, isn't it a result of their policies? They always look at me as if I am an alien.

Posted by: janet s on September 18, 2008 09:03 PM
19. we need the 3 R's back into in education AND--the 3 V's---vouchers, vouchers, vouchers

sunset many state programs or make them justify their existence with REAL, MEASURABLE results, not "clients served"--that's meaningless;

i want "clients served & successful & now independent of State" as the new test or metric

Posted by: jimmie-howya-doin on September 18, 2008 09:09 PM
20. Does anybody out there belong to or know of any other union than the teachers that has a 90% difference in starting wage vs. seasoned wage?
25 years in the Teamsters and I've never seen it anywhere else.

Posted by: PC on September 19, 2008 01:37 AM
21. The majority of democrats in both houses are large enough to pass an income tax bill that would require only 51% of the electorate for passage -- not a the supermajority -- Democrats have planned for an income tax for many years -- it will be a reality shortly...

Posted by: Nick on September 19, 2008 01:42 PM
22. As long as the socialist domocrat pary remains in power, this state will go deeper and deeper in debt. I would hope that people will come to thier senses and elect reasonable and sane people to elective office.....and oust these socialist pariahs.

Posted by: Allan Rothlisberg on September 22, 2008 06:43 AM
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