It is but one poll, thus it would be prudent not to get too rambunctious in response, but Ramussen latest of Rossi 52% to Gregoire's 46% is another in a steady series of indicators that the Gregoire campaign is flailing.
First, it's the 2nd poll this week to show movement in Rossi's favor. Moreover, the pollsters in question are the only two firms doing regular, public polling the race.
Second, the polls themselves confirm the appeal that Rossi had in 2004 has been translated to this campaign as well. Rasmussen showing Rossi up by six while McCain trails by two means there are lots of "Dinocrats" out there. The crosstabs back this up:
- Rossi wins 94% of Republicans, while Gregoire secures only 81% of Democrats.
- Rossi even earns the support of 27% of self-described liberals.
- Rossi leads in all four demographic groups under $75,000 in household income.
Yes, a sample size of 500 likely voters means the crosstabs are volatile, but that is still evidence that just like 2004, Rossi appears to be winning votes that Gregoire can't afford to lose.
Note that SurveyUSA shows the same trend of Rossi outperforming McCain. Their poll linked above had Rossi ahead 48% - 47%, while McCain remains behind Obama by four points.
Third, Rossi's contributor base just keeps growing. The campaign announced donor number 44,000 on September 8th. Since that time they've crossed the 48,000 barrier. That kind of grassroots energy means volunteers working hard on the campaign's behalf, in addition to cash flow.
Fourth, speaking of incoming receipts, Rossi outraised Gregoire by over half a million in cash contributions in August. As of this typing, he leads her in reported receipts in September too, $221,000 to $126,000.
Yes, both sides should have ample resources from here to Election Day. But the challenger won't be outspent in any substantive way by the incumbent, and Gregoire might even be outraised down the stretch.
Fifth, Rossi is dictating the campaign narrative. Part of that is Gregoire's bizarre insistence with playing semantical games rather than facing up to fiscal reality. One wonders how that will hold up in a debate.
The nail in this coffin is Joel Connelly's assessment today. We disagree with Joel often here at Sound Politics thanks to his leftward leanings, but few can match his knowledge of Washington state campaign history. Thus, when he says a Democratic campaign is floundering its time to pay attention.
Connelly says "the Gregoire campaign needs an infusion of excitement and imagination." He also confirms what we've been saying about the $2 million Evergreen Progress has spent swinging at Dino Rossi - and largely missing:
By contrast, the Democrats' "independent" attack group, trying to make an issue out of Rossi's social conservatism, has yet to leave a mark on its target.
Add it all up and Rossi's campaign looks good (even if I'd be more comfortable saying Rossi leads by two or three rather than six). Gregoire's campaign really didn't start fumbling until a few weeks out from Election Day in 2004. This year it seems to have started a little early.
There remains massive caveat though: it's still early. The debates between Rossi and Gregoire - and there looks to be at least five - are unpredictable. It's still a Democratic state, no matter how enthusiastic Republicans might be. And roughly seven weeks to go is still a lifetime in politics.
But it's better to be ahead with the wind at your back than not.
Posted by Eric Earling at September 12, 2008 08:04 PM | Email ThisObama must resign because of his covert Marxist organizing.
Posted by: The Pirate on September 12, 2008 08:25 PM1. www.team129.com - Join it and let's kick some real votes Dino's way.
2. www.casinochris.com There are two video's here, the second is absolutely hilarious.
Posted by: gs on September 12, 2008 08:42 PMObama would be disqualified from being in the FBI if he applied, because of his past and current associations with Ayers, Dorn and Rezko and his underground ties that the campaign has managed to keep hidden. (That should be a future McCain ad). Would you want someone like this as the commander-in-chief of this
country ? (I don't think so)
That is more than scary.
In the spirit of John Fund, it won't be close, so Bill Huennekens types, mailbox voters, felon voters, dead voters, storage facility voters, and last minute county building provisional registrants won't be able to steal it.
Posted by: Jeff B. on September 12, 2008 09:19 PMGod save us
Posted by: gs on September 12, 2008 11:31 PMThe left is in a mammoth meltdown over Palin. Today's front page headline in the P-I: "Palin Investigation in Alaska heats up" Likewise this mornings Seattle Times: "Palin won't concede change of heart on bridge", featuring a lead-in to a New York Times article, "Straight Talk runs off course as McCain lambasted for inaccuracies"
I like to think that somewhere Ronald Reagan is looking down and smiling.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on September 13, 2008 04:54 AMI don't know if this is part of the McCain plan, but if so, its pretty good thinking. The dems are really spooked.
Posted by: deadwood on September 13, 2008 06:23 AMWhat would Seattleites DO??? Another George Bush??....and THA-T-T HORRIBLE WOMAN!!...in the Whitehouse???... and now you say we have one THEM in the GOVERNORS Mansion too?? Time to grab the diamonds and stock certificates, load up the limo with wine, sushi and arugula and drive to France...HENRI-I-I-I-!!!!!
Posted by: Saltherring on September 13, 2008 07:27 AMI think what we are seeing is a group of people who have for years believed that the electorate was "theirs" suddenly discovering that most Americans really don't like them very much.
All of America has been watching Charlie Gibson look down his nose at Palin. Gibson was the absolute embodiment of leftist snobbery and condescension. The entire "interview" was designed to portray Palin as an uneducated, rural, assault weapon wielding, environment raping monster. I don't think it went over quite as well as they planned.
As these poll numbers seem to indicate, the more Americans discover just exactly what the modern left is all about, the less blue states there will be.
It looks like Palin will turn out voters who McCain could not energize because of his record on taxes, immigration and stem cell research among many other things.
But it also appears that in picking Palin, McCain will also be perceived as pulling a classic bait and switch. McCain built his brand on "straight talk" and independence from party ideology.
Now McCain has abandoned "straight talk" in favor of pandering and obvious slight of hand rhetoric. In picking Palin, he also abandoned any pretense of independence from traditional party ideology.
So he wins some support, and loses some, by abandoning his brand to win an election.
It also seems he has a new challenge: charges that his selection of Palin was reckless because a lot of people perceive that she's not ready to be President.
This is going to get more interesting, not less.
Posted by: jan on September 13, 2008 09:28 AMFace it. You're in trouble. Big trouble.
Posted by: jimg on September 13, 2008 10:23 AMFurthermore, when the the rumblings about Republicans becoming competitive in what should have been a Democrat congressional blow-out start becoming mainstream, you know there is "something there" there.
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on September 13, 2008 03:01 PMI think the fun is just beginning. Just judging by the biased stories I read today the media is going to go at the Republicans with everything they have. I don't want to get cocky but this could be the undoing of the modern left. And it is about time.
Posted by: Bill Cruchon on September 13, 2008 03:42 PMWhat strikes me is that Rossi and some ads from his side are basically saying Gregoire did not raise taxes on the casinos. Having been to some of the tribal gaming parlors myself, I appreciate that.
Rossi apparently wants to raise taxes on casinos. No thanks.
Rossi apparently is trying to run on Obama's coattails against McCain.
What gives, Rossi is no fiscal conservative - with his transportation WA will be driving on toll roads or dirt roads. He's getting to be a joke. Rossi's dishonesty like McCain's is going to go down like rock.
God. How it must suck to be a fringe-leftist whack job such as yourself.
You posted like a Kos scum bag because you and the rest of your ilk are terrified and you see it all slipping away.
If you REALLY want to impress us, after empty suit and stuffed shirt get their asses kicked in Nov. you should pour gasoline on yourself and light it
Think of the media u'd get by going up like a firecracker!
Posted by: hinton on September 13, 2008 09:02 PM