The momentum is on Dino's Rossi's side as this blogger types.
That doesn't come simply from someone who would strongly prefer Rossi to win. It comes from objective political analysis of multiple indicators that are pointing his way - even though they shouldn't be given everything else we understand about this election year in a blue state.
1) The incumbent Christine Gregoire does not have a money advantage.
Indeed, Rossi didn't just outraise her last month; he did so by half a million.
It will be interesting to see the C-4 summary reports of receipts and expenditures by the campaigns through August 31st, due to the PDC this Wednesday. Though Gregoire has raised $1.3 million more than Rossi based on current filings, the cash flow strength of the Rossi campaign (thanks to those 43,000+ contributors) coupled with Gregoire's generally higher burn rate means that neither side probably had a meaningful cash-on-hand advantage at the end of August.
The incumbent should be in much better position in a state and an election year that is supposed to favor her party.
2) The enthusiasm is all on the GOP side.
Any observer worth their salt in state politics has long seen that Republicans are enthusiastic not only about Rossi's candidacy, but in working hard for it. The aforementioned 43,000 contributors - 68% of which are new from 2004 - is the most visible indicator of grassroots energy that will also mean higher numbers of volunteers manning phone banks, knocking on doors, and generally spreading the proverbial good word.
The added layer of vigor within GOP ranks for Sarah Palin on the national ticket only adds to that potential grassroots impact. Meanwhile, good luck finding anything remotely similar among the Democratic faithful for Christine Gregoire.
3) Rossi is winning the messaging battle.
What is Christine Gregoire really running on? Does her campaign have a consistent theme besides complaining about George Bush, circa Darcy Burner 2006?
I haven't been able to discern one - other than the fact her ads refuse to acknowledge current angst in the electorate and keep telling everyone that things are dandy in Washington state. Indeed, I'd post her latest ad on that very score...except her campaign hasn't put it online yet. The best I can tell you is that it uses imagery similar to this ad and an out-of-touch, upbeat tone like her inaugural ad of the cycle.
Contrast that with Rossi. He's the obvious candidate in the race if you as the voter are looking to change the way Olympia does business. He's running specifically on it and speaking directly to the voters in doing so, as his current TV ad so clearly demonstrates.
More importantly, he's grabbing an emerging issue - the state's looming budget deficit - and hammering away at it with consistency. That TV ad is complimented by a related radio spot, which expands on his record of solving tough budget problems without slashing essential social service safety nets. That same record also makes for a good guy radio spot that is totally atypical - or at the least non-stereotypical - of Republican candidates.
Add it all up and you find Rossi already hitting his stride while Gregoire continues to fumble a bit (as Jerry Cornfield discusses). The same dynamic occurred in 2004, it just happened later in the race.
That doesn't mean things can't change. Maybe Evergreen Progress will figure out how to run effective ads. Maybe Gregoire's campaign will figure out how to have a consistent and compelling message. And maybe some exterior event such as the debates will change the contour of the race. Lord knows there will be enough money spent on this race from all sides that it's possible for race dynamics to be altered.
Yet for now, regardless of where the next round of polls might actually put the race in numbers, Rossi is winning the actual campaign.
Posted by Eric Earling at September 07, 2008 04:55 PM | Email ThisMcCain is doing very well right now, and while I don't think he'll carry Washington, I don't think he'll be crushed in Washington like I thought a few months ago.
Let's put it this way: If McCain gets over 45% of the vote, I think Rossi wins. If he doesn't...well...we'll see.
Posted by: Cliff on September 7, 2008 05:36 PMI think therefore that remaining Obama voters be more ideologically left and not likely Rossi voters.
Posted by: deadwood on September 7, 2008 05:50 PMAs usual, he'll start out 160,000 or so behind due to the fine efforts of the King County GOP, a wholly-owned democrat subsidiary if one ever existed.
Additionally, Dino's support of wasting $75 million taxpayer dollars on a professional basketball team did nothing to endear him to those who actually will vote, as shown by his abysmal numbers in Clark County.
In the end, Queen Chrissy, the hypocritical tribal subsidiary will win. ANd that's a damned shame, really.
Posted by: hinton on September 7, 2008 08:23 PMAre you REALLY so dumb as to think Republican voters are going to stay home over the Sonics?
Because if you are, you should get your head examined.
EVEN IF IT WERE TRUE that any significant amount of people were upset by it, and it's not, they'd now be voting because of Palin, and they aren't going to leave the Governor spot blank.
Posted by: Cliff on September 7, 2008 08:32 PMMany people have their reasons for not supporting this "conservative," and those of us who do not do so, do not require our heads to be "examined."
There will be no particularly large change in OhDrama's ownership of this state, now showing an RCP average of OhDrama at 10.5 over McCain.
Were this state in play, your bluster might have some merit. But given your obvious and rather startling ignorance on the reality here, it's clear that it, well, doesn't.
Don't get YOUR head examined... there doesn't appear to be much in there to look at.
Posted by: Hinton on September 7, 2008 10:11 PMThis state very well may be in play.
It would, however, add another layer of interesting impact for the Rossi campaign.
Posted by: Eric Earling on September 8, 2008 07:19 AMWe need new roads for the exurbs and to push and develop more of Washington State.
Posted by: John Bailo on September 8, 2008 07:27 AMThanks for reminding me. I need to send Rossi another $100.00.
Posted by: pbj on September 8, 2008 07:40 AMI agree with you about subsidizing sports teams. I find it disgusting. But that is a bipartisan problem. Mike Lowry was the one responsible for shoving Safeco down our throats.
In life you make compromises. Gregoire took millions for a gax tax that was supposedly to fix a viaduct that, we were told, was in dire need of repair or people would die.
Has any work, other than the heavy construction equivalent of spackling, been done on that viaduct? Do you think for a moment that the woman who lost the state $10 million as AG because she wouldn't file her paperwork on time, as governor ran up almost $3 billion of debt, will she all of a sudden see the light?
Let's get a look at the big picture here shall we?
$75 million for a sports team on one hand, $3 billion deficit on the other. Hmmm which one do I choose, WHICH one do I choose?
Oh and let's not forget the money her majesty allocates for pet massage.
Once Rossi is in there we can fight like hell against the subsidies for Sports teams. The Democrats will subsidize the as much if not more. And while you are distracted on the sport teams, the Democrat will be spending us another $3 billion in the hole.
Posted by: pbj on September 8, 2008 07:52 AMNO TRUE CONSERVATIVE EVER WOULD HAVE AGREED TO FINANCE A PRIVATE SPORTS TEAM WITH PUBLIC DOLLARS.
In his transition team back in 04, he surrounded himself with RINOS and so-called "main-streamers," lacking a single known conservative in the entire bunch.
We have no way to rewrite history, but if you believe that we would not now be facing a substantial deficit even if Rossi HAD been able to get past King County fraud to take the Governor's Mansion, then I'm not the ONLY one that needs my "head examined."
And where was Rossi on that idiotic waste of hundreds of millions of dollars known as the 9.5 cent gas tax increase?
Sigh. The problem here is that the Sonics debacle was a symptom of the true Rossi... the pandering, lip service "conservative" that you've obviously bought in to. I want a TRUE LEADER. I want someone with the guts to take a PRINCIPLED stand.
I look forward to the next OhDrama-Washington poll. But OhDrama's massive support in this increasingly socialist state seems to me to be reminiscent of the Clinton kool-aid drinkers who would have voted for him if they had just seen a video of Billy molesting an entire girl scout troop. As a result, I don't see a lasting bump for McCain here in WA.
The odd thing is this: I will not support Queen Chrissy, the hypocritical tribal bimbo, either.
But as long as I've been in the business, and even while I was working as the ED for the party back in 2000, I've never "settled" for the lessor of 2 evils, and I damned sure don't intend to start now.
Posted by: hinton on September 8, 2008 12:35 PMRossi will win.
Posted by: Mr. Cynical on September 8, 2008 12:56 PMOh bullshit. And if you are right, then "true conservatives" make up like 1% of the voting population, so they'd be irrelevant anyway.
Posted by: Cliff on September 8, 2008 01:06 PMPalin could help McCain win WA and CO because of Western regionalism and culture and so on, but they could still lose MI and PA because of economic woes.