September 07, 2008
That Late Conservative Ballot Trend
Peter Callaghan spends some print and pixels in today's TNT trying to flesh out why it is that later mail-in ballots seemed to favor non-Democratic candidates across the board in our August 19th primary - a topic we spent a lot of time on at this website in the days after that event.
There are lots of theories on this, and the Rossi campaign makes a decent point that voters were attracted to their guy the more they saw of him via TV and radio, especially versus the picture painted by Evergreen Progress, Gregoire, etc.
Regardless, we now have an election trend that has been obvious in Washington state for multiple election cycles in competitive races. At its heart there appears to be a significant behavioral difference between when Democratic leaning demographics cast their ballots versus their Republican leaning counterparts.
Whatever the reasons, which provide lots of fodder for speculation, the trend is what it is. Short of a dramatic late event or campaign twist affecting a race in a pro-Democratic direction, we can likely expect most Republican candidates in competitive races to improve their margin as ballots are counted...outside Seattle.
Let's keep that in mind on the night of November 4th.
Posted by Eric Earling at September 07, 2008
01:33 PM | Email This
1. Note again that this did NOT hold true in 2007, though, at least with Tom Greene (who, by the way, just resigned from the Snohomish County Sheriff's Office, which means there's very little experience left in the top positions there, to our collective detriment), and I think with the GOP county council races, too.
However, it did hold true in 2006.
So I am cautiously in agreement with you, but I would not be TOO surprised to not see it happen this year ... especially since I think there's going to be more King County vote-by-mail this year than in previous years ...
2. Well, I can tell you this; I'm starting to get worried about our current Governor and what she is doing to this State. Reading intelligent posts herein have caused me to be more astute about the happenings or the lack thereof. Sir Dino's latest ads are appealing and make sense to me...he's losing some of the 'slick' image that I'd previously identified with him. I was a staunch fan of our Governor and now...I'm wondering...and I'm possibly considering Sir Dino. I regard myself as an independent, but admitedly I've voted primarily Democrat in the past.
3. Or is it the fence-sitting Independents that are waiting until election day to decide who to vote for, and are more often voting for Republicans?
Oh and just so you know where I stand on this, vote-by-mail sucks.
4. The last time this subject came up, somebody posted that he sent his in at the very last possible moment, so that it would counteract any "Ooo, look, some ballots miraculously found in storage rooms and previously-certified-empty machines! And they all support Gregoire!" votes.
5. If we don't believe that our electoral process is fair and above board, why vote?
6. pudge -
I get your point though that was a non-partisan race technically (even if anyone with a brain could figure out the affiliations if they tried).
More importantly, I thought Lovick's campaign was demonstrably more effective than Greene's - especially when it came to the quality of TV and mail.
On top of that, I think the SEIU IE's in the race toward the end were very effective in tipping things toward Lovick, especially in a low-turnout election. I don't recall anything similar on Greene's behalf.
7. I heard two folks in a check out line discussing Lisa Browns lawsuit which will pave the way for the Democrats to come back season with massive new tax hikes.
They were not at all happy with THE Gregoire bunch.
A perfect time to have a hearing on throwing out the 2/3 tax limitiation in Olympia. I hope Rossi makes hay with the followings of this liberal court.
I also picked up my Rossi signs from two should have been democrats that obviously aren't Gregoire supporters.
So as I see it there is more and more hope every day in this land, that even many democrats are getting tired of the spending spree and budget defecits their past choice has brought them.
8. Duffman, as someone who has talked one-on-one with Dino both on the phone and in person on more than one occasion for more than just a quick hello, I can tell you that he is as warm and genuine as he seems on TV. He's the real deal. That's why he's so popular with republicans. He used to be my state senator. Never once has he acted 'slick'. He's always shown a calm, pleasant, yet focused demeanor. Hope that helps.
9. Respectfully, I don't buy the "outside Seattle" hypothesis. Why? Look at how the results came in. A number of counties (Asotin, Spokane, Cowlitz, among others) flipped in the Gov race. I can offer no real explanation of why this is. It's happened before, in 2006, as well.
Of course, that doesn't mean that King county won't take longer to count the ballots. But this isn't a function of who is, and isn't, reported. There's clearly a bias to later ballots, either way. It's not that Seattle reports first; it's just that King County's size slightly tempers the phenomenon, because they take longer to report.
10. Sir Dino's latest ads are appealing and make sense to me...he's losing some of the 'slick' image that I'd previously identified with him.
Again, a fine investigation job on your part, Dunceman: sit and watch TV political ads. Doubtless this will cause you to be "more astute"
Funny, this fits (McCain/Palin campaign chief) Rick Davis' game-plan perfectly:
."This election is not about issues,"
Remember Duffman: McCain/Palin and the GOP represent the ANTITHESIS of your views on the issues (esp. Healthcare)
11. mercifurious: um, if this campaign were about issues, then why would Obama keep saying "McCain is just like Bush" instead of actually talking about the issues?
Protesting too much etc.
12. Pudge,
It may not have held true with Greene, but it did in the few partisan races that were on that year. King County elected some partisan officers, and in every case the GOP vote-share gained.
I don't have much to offer to explain this, but it's an interesting phenomenon. Conventional wisdom holds that motivated voters, and high-information voters, tend to vote earlier. I frankly have no idea why it is that late voters are Republicans in Washington state. It doesn't seem to be a matter of where they live -- the GOP-ward shift happened in heavily Republican and heavily Democratic areas.
In fact, it's not just Seattle where this didn't happen (it did, narrowly.) Rossi fell slightly in the suburban 48th, which covers the Gold Coast and Bel-Red, between early and final results. And, hey, who says it doesn't matter in Seattle? Late ballots helped Sam Reed squeak out a win there. ;)
Maybe an LD-by-LD comparison would be revealing. Alas, counties don't release early results uniformly, or generally by LD, so that's probably not happening. It does look pretty solid that the statewide totals generally move toward the GOP, although late voters don't necessarily vote conservatively (remember the school thing in 2007?) if they're pushed one certain way.
Only time will tell...
13. I think the late Republican returns just show that Republicans are a bit older, actually have a job, and are otherwise busy earning money on election day, so they vote by mail.
14. Uhhhhhhhh, it's because based on the ISSUES, McCain has voted WITH Bush 90% of the time.
Was that meant to be an easy pitch? Ding! Around the bases they go!
15. mercifurious-pretending-to-be-pudge:
You're not very bright, or you think we aren't.
First, we all know the 90 percent number is a lie. It is, in fact, not true, on SEVERAL levels.
Second, it is, in fact, a logical fallacy to say "McCain is the same as Bush" as an argument. Logical argument about the issues requires you to actually talk about the issues.
This means when asked why people should not vote for McCain, you don't say "he is the same as Bush", you say, "because his view on the issues are this and that."
Is that too hard for you to do, or to comprehend?
16. How can we verify our votes were counted?
17. pbj,
Three ways, that I know of: first, calling your county elections office. This is the fastest way, and the most up-to-date. It's also currently the only source that has this information updated. They can even tell you before voting closes in an election, in fact. As a pollworker, we use this when a voter cannot remember (for whatever reason) if they have cast a ballot or not.
The other two ways are through the My Vote application on the SoS site, or the Sound Politics application that Stefan made. Usually, of the two, the state's is the more updated. Currently, neither include the most recent election.
You may also want to check the elections web site for your county. I know that a few (Chelan, Pierce, Snohomish, maybe others) let you look up updated ballot status there.
Hope that helps.
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