August 27, 2008
Putting that Primary Ballot Trend in Colors
The Spokesman Review has some handy maps showing the contrast between the Governor's Primary on the night of the 19th versus how things look with the bulk of primary votes counted (previously discussed here and here).
Watch the red get redder, the blue turn pink, and the blue turn lighter:
First, primary night [pdf]. Now, current results [pdf].
The Rossi campaign says the shift was indicative of voters responding to their advertising, which started later than Gregoire's. There's probably some truth to that given the overall quality and message of his ads versus hers, though it's probably a combination of that and the fact conservatives seem to cast their ballots later in the voting period than liberals too.
UPDATE: formatting adjusted.
Posted by Eric Earling at August 27, 2008
07:39 AM | Email This
1. Looks good Eric. Yet I must admit, this late voting thing is a joke.
2. The biggest deficiency in those maps is that they don't show movement in the counties already colored deep red on Primary night...in subsequent counts, these counties went for Dino at even higher percentages than on Primary Night...my suggestion would be to show them in flames now because of the scorching desire for change in Olympia
3. I disagree. The ballots selected for tally on election night always seem to favor liberal candidates and initiatives. This makes the spread artificially large and gives them an undeserved election night bump when everyone is paying attention!
It could be Rossi's late advertising and it could be Republicans vote later. It probably is both.
I have tracked voting in my urban/suburban county to see who votes earlier as part of a GOTV effort in three partisan elections. It usually starts out with Demo turnout far exceeding GOP turnout, with the GOP always at least narrowing the turnout gap (in '06) and sometimes erasing it (in '04).
Also in my county the findings of the Moore poll are borne out. Democrats are the largest proportion of the most frequent primary voters. As primary participation falls, the Republican proportion grows.
I would not say that this last primary isn't predictive of the final results. I would say that the electorate voting in it is almost certainly more Democratic than the electorate who will vote in November, at least in my county.
I also think it may be more pro-incumbent than what will prove to be the case in November. Republican incumbents generally did well. Reed is close to 60 and McKenna is about at 57. I don't think a Republican, even a moderate one like Reed, has broken 60 in a couple of decades in a statewide race. I don't think a single Republican legislator ran behind--except for Jim Dunn who lost to another Republican for second place.
It does not bode well for Gregoire if she wins by 2% (more like 1% if you add the D's and R's together) in a primary electorate that is more pro-incumbent and more Democratic than the general election electorate will prove to be.
5. Very interesting stuff b2. I wonder though why the GOP doesn't call foul with judicial races which are often settled at the primary. Perhaps those elections need to have the same top two rules as other offices.