Much like the Reichert v. Burner race discussed below on the main page, we really didn't learn much new about the contest between Dino Rossi and Christine Gregoire.
In the end, however, Rossi pollster Bob Moore might end up looking rather prescient. From a Rossi campaign pre-primary memo:
You will recall the July 9-10 Moore Information poll had the race at 45-45 for both candidates. In that same survey Christine Gregoire had a nine point lead among voters who have cast ballots in each of the last four elections: so called "perfect" or "four of four" voters. Obviously these are the voters most likely to vote in this primary:
Moore Information
July 9-10, 2008, N=400
Among 4/4 voters only
Gubernatorial Ballot
Rossi: 42%
Gregoire: 51%
Neither: 1%
Don't know: 6%
Party Affiliation
REP: 35%
IND: 15%
DEM: 46%
As of this typing the Governor's race is at a 49% - 45% spread in favor of Gregoire. By the time counties count the rest of the ballot, especially in slow-to-tally King, one expect a margin rather close to what Moore previewed.
Of course, that's a correct forecast of likely primary voters, which in real numbers is going to end up being under 40% of the electorate. That's a totally different universe - as Moore established - than the 80% or so turnout expected in November. For reference, statewide turnout in 2004 was 82.2%.
All the more reason that the comparisons between this primary and the '04 General that have been circulating in some circles, including in comments at this site, are simply laughable.
Posted by Eric Earling at August 20, 2008 08:30 PM | Email ThisRossi lost or won by much smaller than expected margins in counties he should have cruised through - Spokane and Asotin come to mind - and got creamed in King county.
Rossi needed and expected (despite the pre-election expectation games) to win. He didn't. It's going to be a long three months at Rossi HQ.
Posted by: Jill Strait on August 20, 2008 09:52 PMYou can't even rely on Tuesday night counting because too many votes are still in the mail.
Posted by: swatter on August 21, 2008 07:19 AMI'd love to see a detailed chart that outlines ALL the taxes & fees in Seattle & King KOUNTY including the hidden taxes like B&O. It's staggering. A chart like this would say it all....and Gregoire wants to pile on more!
Until 49.3% of Wasington residents FEEL strongly they are being overtaxes, the Dems will prevail. Rossi needs to show ALL the taxes being paid (Fed, State and Local) and then fan the flames of discontent.
It's not an easy task. Ross Perot did it with all his graphs & charts. It was humorous..and highly effective. He could have won in 1992 had he really wanted to.
Posted by: Mr. Cynical on August 21, 2008 08:22 AMThe primary signaled a change of "the status quo," Burner said Tuesday night, adding, "An incumbent who gets below 50 percent (in a primary), that incumbent does not survive the November election."
So, does Burner mean that Gregoire is going to lose?
Posted by: Cliff on August 21, 2008 02:00 PMIf that is an Obama Wave I have two things to say:
Watch the Hillary Clinton Machine kick in (2008 is just around the corner for her, and a shoe in nomination if Obama loses
and
a 1.5% lead is hardly a ripple let alone a wave.
PS Gregoire's lead has slipped a bit as more of the absentees are being counted and posted.
Rossi 45.54%
Gregoire 48.90%
A lead of 3.36%
Add the other dropped out republican and democratic votes to the mix and you get potential
Rossi 47.89%
Gregoire 50.1%
a lead of 2.21%
And the gloves and debates have not come off yet.
Stay tune
I will once again call them and insist the send me my general election ballot and I will vote for Rossi.
Posted by: Cicero on August 23, 2008 11:31 PM