I'm not doing anything approaching live blogging tonight since there is almost nil on the table for the major races in our state this November (see David Postman for a more detailed discussion on that topic). I'll have some thoughts later - as no doubt will some other contributors.
For now, have at it in the comments if you have something to say about the results thus far.
10:29 UPDATE: here's the page showing voter turnout by county. While counties will be different in the end because of assorted variables, one can for example see that King County has counted a lower percentage of its outstanding ballots than other counties.
Another note, I would warn against comparisons with the 2004 primary given the variances between a partisan ballot primary versus our current system. They're utterly different.
In addition, one can expect that voter turnout in November will be roughly double that of the primary - not to mention the voting base will have a different demographic and partisan profile. So comparisons with the 2004 General are even more useless.
Really, anyone who is drawing profound conclusions from the primary results in the races we're watching closely this fall such as the Governor's race or the 8th Congressional District is either a partisan hack or isn't thinking very clearly.
They're close races. We knew that going into the Primary and we know it coming out. That's about it.
Posted by Eric Earling at August 19, 2008 08:54 PM | Email ThisDino Rossi
Prefers G.O. P. Party 45025 35.63%
Christine Gregoire
Prefers Democratic Party 75127 59.45%
Should we worry?
Posted by: John Bailo on August 19, 2008 09:03 PMoh without Dean Logan
Posted by: gs on August 19, 2008 09:19 PMAlso, Dave Reichert is doing far better than expected (initial numbers) with 47 percent to 44 percent for Darcy Burner.
In '04, Republican candidates were out polled by Democrats by around 12,000. In '06, Burner pulled in 2,500 more votes before losing in the general election.
Posted by: Don Ward on August 19, 2008 09:24 PMShould I be worried here!
Posted by: Don on August 19, 2008 09:25 PM
“We had a strong showing in the primary tonight. Current returns show we have received over 45 percent of the vote. To put these results into perspective, during the 2004 campaign I received just 34 percent of the vote in the primary and the General Election turned out to be significantly closer.
“Fewer than half of the voters who will vote in November cast their ballots in this primary. Independent polls of all voters show this race is a statistical dead heat and I feel confident going into the General Election. I’m happier having 45 percent tonight than the 34 percent we got in the 2004 primary.
“What matters is that we placed in the top two and now the General Election begins. We still have a long way to go until November and I will continue to talk about the issues that matter most to the people of Washington state, like addressing the budget deficit, fixing our transportation system, improving education, and keeping our communities safe.
“Christine Gregoire sees Washington state the way it is today and she is satisfied. In Christine Gregoire’s Washington our economy is fine, there is no transportation crisis, she is satisfied with the education of our children, and she believes we are safe enough. In the end, Christine Gregoire is so satisfied with how things are today in Washington, that she wants us to have four more years of the same thing. I believe we can and must do better.”
Posted by: Don Ward on August 19, 2008 09:31 PM(Need the link?)
Busted.
Dino, I hope you get what every Republiconvict deserves.
Prison.
Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on August 19, 2008 09:52 PMGregoire's lead in the primary this year is considerably smaller. This points to a clear Gregoire defeat.
Oh, and do the Democrats still want to talk about that Elway poll? Because this poll taken today seems to kinda make the race seem closer (and the margin of error with the poll today is only +/- 3,500 illegal votes in King County)
Posted by: AD on August 19, 2008 10:03 PMGets even better in the 7th, where Sue Lani Madsen leads Shelly Short (both Republicans) by only 58 votes. The two of them will go on to the general, where the bad pub Shelly is getting from her husband's indictment could be crucial.
Posted by: Ryan on August 19, 2008 10:05 PMhttp://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTurnout.aspx?ElectionID=25
Posted by: chris on August 19, 2008 10:08 PMLooks pretty close to me, since KC will conclude counting some 62,000 on hand tonight by 10:30 pm, or so they say!
Posted by: chris on August 19, 2008 10:12 PMGregoire got 62 percent in Snohomish, now has 51 percent. Of course, we had a partisan primary then, so one would think Gregoire would do better in a "pick your party" primary, since people are more likely to pick the Democratic party for the primary, even if they vote for Rossi or other Republicans in the general. Still ... Rossi is looking just fantastic.
Erik: they do not know the percent of votes counted, as they have not all come in.
That is, if you add those votes to Gregoire and Rossi, it shaves another full point of her already tiny lead.
Of course, again, primaries don't mean too much anyway, and this is a DIFFERENT KIND of primary, so results are not directly comparable. Democrats will tend to do worse in a non-partisan primary in WA, since more people in a partisan primary will pick a Dem ballot than a GOP ballot.
But still, Dems turn out better than Republicans in these things, so close races are bad news for Democrats, especially in the governor race. And where you see Republicans more than 10 points ahead, like in Stevens over Walser, where Stevens was actually losing in her last primary (before winning pretty big) ... in the 39th we may be looking at a blowout there. Yay!
What's really important in the gov race is that Rossi is extremely close to Gregoire, when we know that historically Democrats turn out better for primaries, and that should have Gregoire extremely worried, if those numbers hold.
However, the 8th Congressional race is playing against form because Democrat candidates had performed better than Republican in both '04 and '06.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results but a Reichert lead is telling despite all the time wasted discussing relatively meaningless fundraising numbers.
Posted by: Don Ward on August 19, 2008 11:00 PMOn to the Run-offs Elections in November.
Fnord
pyotr
Posted by: pyotr on August 19, 2008 11:01 PMGregoire just told TVW that Rossi should look for meaning in the returns:
I hope this is a message to him and his friends that negative campaigning isn't going to work.
Is this women for real?
The reason is: They mean a ton.
It looks like the GOP is in danger of losing two more state Senate seats based on tonight. All other seats in the state Senate appear to be: no change. It looks like the GOP could also lose five more seats in the state House.
Now, it is possible to live in denial, and keep losing in the legislature and the Governor's race - this was not a good night for Rossi either. He just seems to keep losing ground on Gregoire.
An alternative is to wake up, smell the coffee, and turn things around.
From what I'm reading tonight, it appears that Rossi and most of the rest of the GOP prefer denial.
Posted by: jan on August 19, 2008 11:20 PMI'm thinking this will impact the first few days counts..
Posted by: Deborah on August 19, 2008 11:27 PMCome November, the turn out of the Obama voters that is predicted in this state will only insure a Gergiore win � The Republican brand is in deep decline.
P.S. I always get a kick out of seeing the name "All facts support my position" on this site. It reminds me of my 350 pound friend "Tiny"
Posted by: Moondoggie on August 20, 2008 12:03 AMInitiative 26 is a stealth move to give various positions the secret non-partison cover that judges enjoy.
I'm curious about this. A Tim Eyman initiative can't have two subjects. I-26 has two votes! What the heck? I don't get that. And I don't get the theory of the second vote.
Also, school levies and such are decided in the primary, but some initiatives are voted on in the primary, then they move on to the general. I think it should be the same for school levies.
What is the logical or legal justification for this seeming inconsitency?
I know levies are slipped into a "primary only" situation since there is a lower average citizen turnout as compared to the unified 100% YES voter turnout among the members of the education
industry.
Oh my god! Are elections designed with a preferred outcome in mind? It can't be!
I know one thing. It's damn hard to get on the notification list for the deadlines and commitee contacts for those who might write the Statements Against in the Voter's Pamphlet.
And the Voter's Pamphlet people act like every square centimeter of real estate is unaffordable gold for the Statments. Yet look at all the rest of the crap they have of room for in the pamphlet.
Posted by: Bart Cannon on August 20, 2008 03:02 AMI was at the Lynnwood post office, around 6:30pm, to mail a letter and saw several people trying to figure out how to mail their ballots to make them count - without any postal workers around to take them.
Had there been open polling stations, these people could have cast their votes and been done.
Posted by: SouthernRoots on August 20, 2008 05:58 AMAsi 'es la vida! Sir Dino.
Posted by: Duffman on August 20, 2008 06:09 AMBut I'm sure Ron Sim's boys will find more votes like last time.
Posted by: Army Medic/Vet on August 20, 2008 06:20 AMHow do you feel about being called a partisan hack by Eric?
Posted by: Lysander on August 20, 2008 06:57 AMGee whiz Sir Dino w/you not want to talk about what the voters might want? Just a thought. :)
Posted by: Duffman on August 20, 2008 07:36 AMThat's exactly what I was thinking.
but even if the Democratic Nation Committee cuts her funding, the nutroots will still pour money into her campaign.
You know what they say, a fool and his money are soon parted...
Posted by: cliff on August 20, 2008 07:38 AMCome November, the turn out of the Obama voters that is predicted in this state will only insure a Gergiore win
Wow, that'll be interesting given that Obama TRAILS McCain by 5 points... Obama's losing, but that loss will help the former Attorney General?
Posted by: Shanghai Dan on August 20, 2008 07:41 AMHHhmmm..... the Burnout fans seem strangely quiet this evening. I wonder why that might be?
Hinton, take a look at the most recent Zogby poll for your answer. The Iraq war - the central theme of the Burner campaign - garners a miserable 12% of the people saying it's the most important issue.
Burner has decided to hitch her wagon to an issue that has become a non-issue. That's a brilliant strategy if you're into losing...
Posted by: Shanghai Dan on August 20, 2008 07:45 AMConsider the context, and then tell me who -- other than partisans on both sides of the issue -- want the candidates to talk about abortion?
How about if the former Attorney General makes the first move? You know, actually allow some access since she is supposed to work for you and me...
Posted by: Shanghai Dan on August 20, 2008 08:17 AMCan we expect to hear Queen Christine on KVI with John Carlson? (I'm certainly not holding my breath.)
Posted by: johnny on August 20, 2008 10:07 AMDon't the people of this state realize that his goal (or so it seems) is to bankrupt medical insurance providers-This guy has GOT TO GO-he is likely to single-handedly destroy (once again) the individual policy medical insurance industry in this state. Have we forgotten the last time this happened already?
I swear to God-when all else fails-the people of this state vote for the democrat candidate. Just because this race isn't high profile does NOT mean it isn't important.
Posted by: Enigmafan420 on August 20, 2008 10:48 AMThese were all early voters, whereas, many thousands like myself, waited till the last minute. Perhaps us late bloomers voted different.
Posted by: swatter on August 20, 2008 11:56 AMCan we expect to hear Queen Christine on KVI with John Carlson? (I'm certainly not holding my breath.)
Ah, but you see, Ross is really an "independent" because he's not a Noam Chomskey worshipper, and Carlson is a far-right nut, so it's OK.
That's the way Horsesass types see it.
Posted by: cliff on August 20, 2008 12:52 PMI do hope that someone in the Rossi camp talks to the McCain camp...the right VP nomination and coat-tails become important. Could Washington end up voting for McCain? I think it's likely. If Rossi/McCain can create the correct response...
Posted by: OregonGuy on August 20, 2008 02:17 PMMaybe you missed the turnout numbers for the Dem Primary vs the GOP Primary in this state. Dem's had the highest turnout ever, the Rep's were had a turnout, but since real Republicans didn't show up they were swamped by the Ron Paul folks. They would have taken over the State Convention if the party had not changed the rules to exclude them.
Needless to say I think WA will remain Blue rather than elect a flip-flopping RINO for President. This will become much more apparent when Sen. Lieberman takes his place as McCain's VP pick.
Maybe you should learn ENGLISH before attempting a post here...
Posted by: Enigmafan420 on August 20, 2008 09:15 PM