August 14, 2008
Survey says...

SurveyUSA's latest in the Governor's race has Christine Gregoire up over Dino Rossi by a narrow 50% - 48% margin. Perhaps Stuart Elway can now tell us that Gregoire is up by 20?

Note that pollster.com's trend lines for the race show a 50% - 47% spread favoring Gregoire, even including Elway's offerings in the mix. And the trend lines, at least for now, show the race is closing.

I doubt that means much for the primary - where despite the many variables it would be safe to assume a continued Democratic tilt to results. And one could argue that in the big picture the race really hasn't moved much, if at all, from the early part of the year.

But it does mean that as of now we have a barnburner.

Posted by Eric Earling at August 14, 2008 09:52 PM | Email This
Comments
1. The most encouraging thing about the pollster.com Gov race chart is that for a bit now Gregoire has flatlined; while at the same time the Rossi line had and continues to have a significant upward trend.... and if we throw out the most recent Elway poll with its REALLY implausible 52-36 split in favor of Gregoire, collectively for the other recent polls and allowing for margin of error it's essentially a dead heat.

It will indeed be interesting to see the final vote tally for Gov in the Primary next Tuesday.

Posted by: Methow Ken on August 14, 2008 10:40 PM
2. Eric, you sure are getting snarky.

Polls are polls. The Elway poll may or may not have been an outlier, but the poll may have also suggested a 6 point spread after the margin of error was taken into account. What has been consistent in these polls is that Gregoire leads by two or three points, and statistically, over many polls, that is significant, especially since we last left off this cast of candidates at a far narrower gap.

Posted by: Daniel K on August 14, 2008 11:37 PM
3. Daniel -

Yes, she has a 2-3 point lead...relatively unchanged from the early part of this year. That's obvious as the data shows and the links I provided affirm. I never said otherwise.

What I will do, however, is continue to make fun of any poll that shows Gregoire sweeping Eastern Washington as Elway's did. That's simply not defendable (and he didn't even mention it in his humorous memo explaining his poll).

Posted by: Eric Earling on August 14, 2008 11:51 PM
4. *yawn*, no one pays attention to election until it's past Labor Day. I'm sure those numbers for Gregoire will go up once people realize that Rossi can't actually pay for the stuff he claims he can do (like his roads mandate that's paid for out of the Dino Rossi magic money hat).

Posted by: Cato on August 15, 2008 09:07 AM
5. Plenty of extra votes out in the shed.

Posted by: Independent Voter on August 15, 2008 09:59 AM
6.
I think Rossi could push disgruntled Seattle voters to his camp by hitting the Lib Hydra of Nickels-Sims-Gregoire hard on crime. There was yet another gangland execution in Rainier Valley and a drug shootout on Canyon Drive in Kent.

Even if your a hardened Darwinist who sees that as a good thing (gangsters getting shot), having bullets flying around isn't.

Posted by: John Bailo on August 15, 2008 10:42 AM
7. IV - just got to make sure Jethro shows up!

Posted by: Crusader on August 15, 2008 10:52 AM
8. Even if Gregoire leads by 2 to 3 points in the head-to-head matchup, she should top Rossi by a decent amount more than that in the primary. Instead of facing only Rossi, there are nine primary opponents on the August 19 ballot to split up the anti-Gregoire vote.

Of significant note, Rossi is not running as "Republican Party", but as "G.0.P Party". There happen to be two avowed "Republican Party" candidates on the primary ballot -- John Aiken and Javier Lopez. In 2004, Rossi only got 85% of the Republican primary vote against two Republican opponents -- when Rossi was also labeled as "Republican". This time around, Aiken and Lopez should get more than 15% of the combined Rossi-Aiken-Lopez "Republican" primary voters, since they are on the ballot as "Republicans" and Rossi is not. If the "Republican" vote would be, let's say 48% in the primary, then at least 7% of the overall vote (i.e. 15% x 48%) won't be going to Rossi.

In addition, former Republican Will Baker -- the Republican nominee for state auditor in 2004 -- is running for Governor under the Reform Party. Baker is also taking a strong stand against alleged 2004 election fraud in his voter pamphlet statement. The Reform Party in the past (i.e. Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996) has taken several points from the Republicans, even in statewide contests, such as Shawn Newman running for Lieutenant Governor in 1996.

And there are five other minor candidates on the primary ballot, to further draw away anti-Gregoire votes.

Moreover, just because voters don't support Gregoire in the primary, that would not necessarily mean that a showing below 50% for Gregoire would translate into a defeat in November.

For example, U.S. Senator Patty Murray, running for re-election in 1998, received only 45.86% of the vote against 12 opponents in the September blanket primary. Many folks thought Murray would be defeated in November due to her weak primary showing. However, Murray proceeded to defeat Linda Smith with 58.41% of the vote in November.

Posted by: Richard Pope on August 15, 2008 01:19 PM
9. Hey Richard--
Here is what you said in you Campaign material about Gregoire when you ran against her in 2000:

"POPE, Richard
Republican
Campaign Address:
People for Richard Pope
PO Box 65016
Shoreline, WA 98155
Telephone: 206.365.3463
E-mail: RPope98155@aol.com
Internet: www.pope2000.org

It's time for a change!

Richard Pope will restore professionalism, integrity and competence to the Attorney General's Office.

Richard Pope will investigate and prosecute corruption and mismanagement in state government, rather than whitewashing and covering up. Scandals such as Linda David, OK Boys Ranch, Wenatchee and DSHS abuses are absolutely intolerable!

Preventable lawsuits have cost Washington taxpayers tens of millions because of bad legal advice and botched representation. Gregoire couldn't even timely appeal the record $17.8 million judgment against the State!

Gregoire hired expensive private lawyers for over $93 million - since her office couldn't do the job. Most disgracefully, Gregoire accepted tens of thousands in campaign contributions from these same hired lawyers!

Richard Pope will redirect funding to improve hiring, training and retention of qualified attorneys. Richard believes the State should employ competent lawyers, rather than having to rely upon expensive outside help."

There are lots & lots of other things you said
AGAINST GREGOIRE!!!
What has changed that you are now pulling for her??
Seems like you are the ultimate headcase and political opportunist now masquerading as a Progressive...
You have lost 10 elections.
You even sued Gregoire.

Are you taking your Meds Pope??

Posted by: popeisakook on August 15, 2008 03:19 PM
10. Obama's starting to plummet as well:


"PRINCETON, NJ -- If the election were held today, registered voters would be equally likely to vote for John McCain (44%) or Barack Obama (44%), according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109564/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Tied-44.aspx

Looks like 2008 is a Republican year after all...

Posted by: John Bailo on August 15, 2008 09:16 PM
11. Eric, may be you can answer the questions raised in today's BlatherWatch piece on Sir Dino? I don't understand why he is so 'controlling'? He either has viable 'answers' or he doesn't...but he apparently won't allow himself any 'uncontrolled' venue...why would that be?

Posted by: Duffman on August 16, 2008 08:52 AM
12. BlatherWatch???? Like anyone really reads it????

pfffft..... give a credible source, and the I will decide for myself !

Posted by: Chris on August 16, 2008 02:18 PM
13. I want Dino to win. Please put up a post so people can comment on Dino Rossi's TV commercials. My liberal daughter and conservative myself both thought the spots 4 years ago were much much more effective. Dino comes across as a smart mouth phony.

Posted by: Kathleen on August 17, 2008 09:31 AM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?