One of the great crimes of any election season are pundits who proclaim current circumstances are sure to be set in stone for months on end. At the risk of beating one of the great dead horses in the Seattle-area political scene, I must note Joni Balter has fallen for this trick:
For Gregoire, the formula works the other way. She is hoping thousands of new voters coming out to vote the first time for Obama might be persuaded to help her as they work their way down ticket.Many, if not most, new voters nationwide are Democrats. The Republican brand, for the moment, is trashed. Or as retiring Virginia Republican Rep. Tom Davis said in May, "The House Republican brand is so bad right now that if it were dog food, they'd take us off the shelf and put us in a landfill."
Many a pundit is hung up on this fact. Yes, Congressional Republicans receive wretched marks from the voting public - for many a just cause (as do Congressional Democrats for that matter). And yes, President Bush isn't exactly helping matters much for the GOP these days.
But over-generalizing such generic moods onto specific candidates, especially those running for entirely different offices, is not wise.
If such mood were the be all and end all, John McCain would have no business being behind Barack Obama nationally by a mere 4 or 5% (and consistently closer in regular tracking surveys by Gallup and Rasmussen). Likewise, Dino Rossi has no business being competitive this year either, to which Balter herself alludes.
Michael Barone spent some time on this notion in a recent column noting Gerald Ford's near-run-thing, almost erasing in full a daunting Jimmy Carter lead in the summer of 1976. Similar trends occurred when Reagan caught and then swamped the clear, early leader Carter in 1980, and when Bush 41 did likewise to Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Indeed, few seasoned political observers on Labor Day of 2004 would have predicted the photo finish between Gregoire and Rossi.
All to say, it's only July. Elections can turn in many ways in the matter of weeks. This particularly volatile electoral season seems quite capable of that, in ways that are entirely unexpected. Good year for Republicans? Most likely not, on the whole. But it would be imprudent to assume that voter discomfort with some Republicans will equate to wholesale embrace of what Democrats are offering in response.
Posted by Eric Earling at July 20, 2008 07:37 PM | Email ThisThe Republiconvict Party is dead.
You didn't hear it here first.....
Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on July 20, 2008 07:56 PMBut right now there is little to no objective evidence that Rossi or McCain have a chance in heck of carrying Washington.
So for anybody thinking of placing bets and putting your money down for Rossi, I'd hold off until after the upcoming primary.
August 19th will tell us soon enought whether he's another Mike McGavick (who was running against a far less attractive candidate than Gregoire).
Posted by: jan on July 20, 2008 07:57 PM"Mr. McCain collected on debts earned during the election, too. He refused to stump for Republicans unless they agreed to support his "reform agenda," and he boasted that his unwillingness to campaign for Senator Slade Gorton of Washington contributed to his narrow loss in 2000."
New York Times
Posted by: jan on July 20, 2008 08:31 PMBecause it's in "The New York Times", we should all genuflect and accept it as gospel. Thank you for the non-partisan, objective analysis. Please.
Posted by: Shaun on July 20, 2008 09:05 PMMy, my, my... it's seems all is not sunshine, chocolate and daisies in Obamaville!
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on July 20, 2008 09:13 PM"How state spending rose $8 billion under Gregoire"
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008061912_spending20m0.html
Vote Rossi, get rid of the Big Spender Gregoire!
Posted by: gs on July 20, 2008 09:13 PMMoonbat rules
Rule 1.0 - If you don't agree with our unfair stereotype of conservatism, you will be guilty of conforming to our unfair stereotype of conservatism.
Rule 3.0 - Democrats are NEVER guilty of anything. Ever.
Rule 3.1 - If a Democrat ever makes a mistake or is accidentally found guilty of something; BLAME THE REPUBLICANS.
Rule 4.0 - It is not who VOTES that matter. Rather it is who COUNTS the votes that matter. Please refer to Washington State and Oregon State elections offices.
Rule 4.1 - It is OK for Democrats to fix elections and find votes for dead people. It is NOT ok for Republicans to find fault with that.
Rule 5.0 - Americans share our moonbat values. However never, ever campaign on Moonbat values because Americans are stupid and will never actually vote for Democrats if they really KNEW they shared our moonbat values.
Rule 5.1 - Never, ever under any circumstances admit rule 5.0.
Rule 6.0 - Bush did it. Unless it is good.
Rule 8.0 - Do not ever speak in public or post to a conservative blog the way we normally speak amongst ourselves. We know we have potty mouths but we really really don't want everyone else to know it.
Rule 9.0 - It is OK to hate. Just so long as you hate conservative Republicans
Rule 9.1 - Remember all Republicans are Nazis so it is OK to hate them and if anyone backs you into a corner you can always yell "NAZI!" and that will usually fix things.
Certainly, Bush has screwed the pooch when it comes having a positive legacy for Republicans to run on. However, he is not running for office this time and many Republicans have distanced themselves from him. So Dino Rossi named his dog "W" - Big freakin' deal !
Posted by: KS on July 20, 2008 09:18 PMGregoire defends the spending in part by blaming it on Rossi
What a scam artist that broad is.,,, and what a bunch of dopes that keep falling for it.
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on July 20, 2008 09:19 PMI can't seem to see if the 8 billion is "inflation adjusted" or not...
Since our dollar is now only worth .60 cents, and the state has to pay for programs the federal government used to help with, along with attempting to unsure CHILDREN, I think Christine probably deserves a medal. At lease our economy is growing, unlike almost every other state.
By the way. When is the call gonna come up to have all our orchardists run off all their illegals? Doesn't right wing world want the apples to fall from the trees rotten? Heck we can just import our apples from countries where labor is cheaper can't we? Free market? Huh?
Just remember. When a Republiconvict talks about helping businesses (Rossi) they are talking about BIG BUSINESSES. Not yours and mine. We (I own a very successful business) are expected to pay more so the Wal Marts can use "our" tax money for food stamps, and medicare for their workers, so they can support China's economy.
Sorry guys. In another generation, the Dems may pay the price for being drunk with power (again) and the GOP will make a comeback.
Just don't be too busy blaming president Obama for not being able to correct the mess the Republicons and Bush has made of our economy. We are all gonna have to sacrifice, and most Americans are way too greedy to give up anything. They think our children should be paying tomorrow (with interest) so we don't have to pay today.
Posted by: All Facts Support My Positions on July 20, 2008 10:15 PMDoes anyone really think calling Gregoire a "broad" is a good idea? I'll hold off on the PC lecture I was going to give and instead just point out that over half of the electorate are "broads."
Thanks all, New Left Conservative #1
Let's hope congress doesn't burn too much 4 dollar gas running away from that elephant.
But most of them don't behave like out of control, on a spending spree, manipulative and lying broads.
There IS a difference between a broad and woman, a broad and lady, a broad and female... while all broads may be female, many broads are women (as opposed to kids, tweens, teens and confused) all females are not broads and no ladies are ever broads... most intelligent women of a certain age... oh say the age of a governor old enough to have adult daughters and be in government for nearly 40 years.... are ladies... and some are just the female equivalant of a thug.
I wonder, if a woman calls another a broad, is it still politically incorrect? Or does it depend on the broad?
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on July 20, 2008 11:12 PMHillary?
Posted by: Mike H on July 21, 2008 07:25 AMI like this part:
"Spending increase"
Gregoire also responded to a report in Sunday's Seattle Times that her office had increased state spending by $8 billion during her term.
"I am proud of what we've done in this state," she said.
"We are at a 14-year low in crime. Over 50 cents of every dollar has gone to education.
"I am proud of the investments we have made in our future -- and I apologize to no one for investing in our kids and our future.
"Those are Democratic values and I am proud of what we've done."
Investing money we don't have--
For the Children!
Ummm, a lot of this money went to giving teachers raises which also increased the Pension Contributions.
How did this help The Children?
Seems more like a Union payoff.
Posted by: Mr. Cynical on July 21, 2008 07:33 AMObama is the last gasp of the liberals.
Posted by: John Bailo on July 21, 2008 09:28 AMPrecisely the LEFTIST PINHEADED KLOWN thinking...
Excessive Spending...followed by a massive tax increase.
Gregoire has failed to address the $2.7 BILLION Deficit SHE created on the spending side..........meaning only one thing A MASSIVE TAX INCREASE
Why, because since he is in the lead in the polls that makes him the presumptive President so it is time that we we all Unite under him.
Those who would back any other candidate than the presumptive leader can only be considered kooks that are trying to bring down America. Sure I didn't like Obama. He wasn't my first choice or second or even 10th. But he is now the Presumptive winner and since backing a winner is more important than what the winner believes we need to back him now.
http://thereaganwing.wordpress.com/2008/07/18/the-presumptive-winner
Posted by: Ned on July 21, 2008 11:21 AMHow many more handles can you dream up?
Posted by: Mr. Cynical on July 21, 2008 11:36 AMDo you think that leftists like Demo Kid or AFSMP would care about this ? Sure they do, they are probably out registering illegal voters in their spare time on behalf of ACORN :)
Posted by: KS on July 22, 2008 09:33 PM