July 20, 2008
The Latest VP Chatter

I'm curious to hear what readers think, given that the public VP talk on the Republican side and generally boiled down recently to Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty, Rob Portman, and Mitt Romney.

Since first raising the topic (here and here) I continue to think Jindal, Pawlenty, and Romney remain the best options.

Romney has the highest critical mass of recent buzz, indicated for example by his #1 ranking on the Fix's VP line and by news coverage of the healing of the McCain-Romney rift. In many respects he's already doing the job of the VP nominee: regularly speaking to gatherings of the party faithful, fundraising like mad, and delivering shivs into the side of the opposition with a smile via copious media appearances.

That said, while Romney has much upside, it's hard to ignore the potential downside too. While he fits the bill of what McCain needs in a VP pick exceptionally well, he still provokes a visceral reaction from a vocal minority of the GOP activist base (even as his selection would sooth many movement conservatives). Moreover, one could see an obvious line of attack from Democrats probing into his venture capitalist past that might not sit will with the economically populist mentality that dominates many swing voters.

Portman is an intriguing option as a former Congressman in Ohio, former U.S. Trade Representative, and former Director of the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) - which is the government agency that actually runs DC more than most people realize. He fits almost every criteria McCain could want in a VP, except his pronounced ties to the Bush administration are an ugly and distracting series of attacks waiting to happen.

There is notably less recent buzz about Jindal and Pawlenty, though there inherent strengths remain obvious. Pawlenty seems like the ultimate safe choice if he gets through vetting. A blue state governor with working class roots. Adequately embrace by both conservatives and moderates. And he bears the reformer label to match McCain's campaign theme and persona. On the downside, his ability to put Minnesota in play electorally is in doubt and he hardly seems a choice that will excite any particular component of McCain's uninspired, conservative base. In the end, Pawlenty may be the best combination of "first, do no harm" combined with the other needs McCain has in a ticketmate.

Jindal remains a member of a national ticket, at some point, either now or in the future. His resume and record are beyond impressive, but his tenure as Governor is very short and the lingering concern about his age gap with McCain magnifying rather than mollifying that issue with the public should not be ignored.

Of note, it seems also clear that South Dakota Senator John Thune and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin seemed destined for a national ticket in the future too. For now, however, Thune lacks the managerial/executive experience McCain needs, while Palin's family considerations and Jindal-like short tenure as Governor necessitate a little more time on the national sidelines.

On the Democratic side, Obama seems destined for the ultimate do no harm pick. He doesn't need to excite anybody. He simply needs someone competent, who won't harm the ticket, and with luck soothes the bruised feelings of some Clinton backers. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh or Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius seem the most logical choices in that category. Joe Biden is an interesting dark horse too, though his famous running mouth would seemingly preclude him from VP consideration. He seems a giant gaffe waiting to happen; the last thing one needs from the ticket's junior partner.

Your thoughts, o loyal reader?

UPDATE: I see Chuck Todd is very high on the "do no harm" rule.

Posted by Eric Earling at July 20, 2008 03:30 PM | Email This
Comments
1. What you mean, Sarah Palin for future, but not now???

Boy are you off target. Palin is not only more than ready, willing and able right now, aside from being more than qualified, experienced and accomplished (I'd say 10 times more than Obama), all GOP roads are, in fact, now leading to Palin as the real front-runner for McCain. She brings more to the table (Hillary voters, oil/energy issue, etc.) than anyone else -- and just let the Dems try to attack her; they can't!

Posted by: Ted on July 20, 2008 03:59 PM
2. I think McCain could do a lot worse than Romney. Now especially, people are worried about the economy and that's an area where Romney can definitely help.

Posted by: BJ on July 20, 2008 04:05 PM
3. Ted -

I'd saying asking someone with five younger kids, including a newborn with Down's Syndrome, to be on a national ticket seems neither fair nor prudent.

Posted by: Eric Earling on July 20, 2008 04:15 PM
4. Romney you say? He unfortunately brings more negatives to the table of electing McCain than positives. That's just the way it is in the eyes of the voters.

Bottom line, w/Romney as McCain's Veep pick, odds of losing the election are MUCH higher. With Palin, McCain CAN'T lose!!! Think about it.

Posted by: Ted on July 20, 2008 04:16 PM
5. @4: Yes, since Obama's been gaining ground on McCain in Alaska, it's only wise that the Republicans put Palin on the ticket.

Seriously... the only thing worse than Republican choices for president are the potential picks for the VP!

Posted by: demo kid on July 20, 2008 04:52 PM
6. Palin has young kids, but so does Obama, so maybe he shouldn't run either. Oh, that's right, she's a woman. I would love for the Dems to attack her on this front, that somehow her being a Mom would preclude her from a national ticket. Heck, I'll sign on to her being on the ticket just to see them try.
I will say I favor Palin or Pawlenty. Gotta say no to the neo-con artist, Mitt Romney. All talking aside, when he governed, he wasn't a conservative, no matter what he says.

Posted by: Scott on July 20, 2008 05:09 PM
7. My pick would be Rick Santorum. He would bring the real conservative base on board.

Posted by: Carol Kujawa on July 20, 2008 05:17 PM
8. McCain picking Romney would look like a strategic act of desperation. Picking Portman would be better. People say Portman's ties to Bush hurt his vp viability, but Portman said he left the WH afte a year and a half because he was unhappy with the Bush admin. direction and not adhering to his emphasis on fiscal responsibility.

Posted by: Justin on July 20, 2008 06:19 PM
9. In my opinion, Jindal is by far the best choice. But he is not a good choice for right now. Give him time to do his Gov. job in Louisiana. That state needs him right now. Beyond Jindal, I regard Romney as the candidate who should be a slam dunk but turned out imo to not be able to be as great a candidate as he should have been, considering his amazing resume. He said things that were bizarre, like "They said they'll get a middle-class tax cut, We'll actually DO it!" I'm thinking whoa--President Bush is the only president in 18 years to accomplish that. Bill Clinton pretended that he wanted to; W did it. What was Romney thinking? I hope he meant he wanted to do it even more, but that's not how he said it. I was not impressed. He kept making democrat-type after-primary speeches to his faithful and it didn't make sense. So no, I am not impressed. Other than that, I have no opinion because I think this will be a tough pick period. Just like the prez R nomination when no one stuck out really strongly, the veep spot also appears to be the same way.

Posted by: Michele on July 20, 2008 06:23 PM
10. My money is on Romney for VP. My heart and my head is with Jindal and my suspicion now is for Cox or Thune.

Posted by: Paul - Utah on July 20, 2008 07:16 PM
11. Michele wrote:

In my opinion, Jindal is by far the best choice. But he is not a good choice for right now.

I think he's also a great choice, and I think he's good for right now. He actually has more experience under his belt than Obama. And has more success - by far - than Obama can even attempt to claim.

Posted by: Shanghai Dan on July 20, 2008 07:33 PM
12. mccain needs to shake up the race and i think palin would be a strong choice. she's a woman, would appeal to conservatives, could appeal to young people, has a reputation and record as a reformer and is immensely popular in her home state. could use more experience but no choice is going to be perfect. jindal might be my second preference, but i think it might be unseemly to abandon louisiana when it is still recovering from katrina and when he was only elected governor last year.
among the 'stay in the box' choices, i'd say romney is as good as any and better than most.
i just don't know that mccain can afford a safe choice.

Posted by: mike on July 20, 2008 07:42 PM
13. Romney does make sense in some real senses, but there are charges of flip-flopping and what have you that could be tough to handle. My gut feeling is that McCain won't pick Romney. I could roll with either Romney, Portman or Pawlenty. Being a resident of Portman's old district, I can safely say that Portman is known well in parts of southern OH, but picking him would seem like such an "inside baseball" pick that I don't see McCain taking him. Portman has many great qualities to offer, but mainly as a "movement" guy or as someone in the background. Portman is a good soldier. I just don't know about his executive skills. I have heard Pawlenty a couple of times on the radio. My money would be on him. The "do no harm" pick that has executive experience with some ability to appeal to moderates and Democrats. One other factor is that Pawlenty supported and worked with McCain even when McCain's campaign was on life support.

Posted by: Steve on July 20, 2008 09:48 PM
14. Romney for VP?? Do you remember the attack ads from the primarys that Romney put out against McCain?? Do you remember the video of Romney saying McCain is dishonest? It would be a gift to the DNC to make Romney McCains VP. You can go to

http://www.HotPres.com

to see all the attack ads that Romney put out against McCain, You can also see the video of Romney calling McCain dishonest. Romney would be a big mistake. I would rather have t boon pickin then romney. lol. Least he has a plan.
http://www.tboonepickin.com

I suggest you go look at the attack ads Romney put out against mccain at the above site. Before you make up your mind about Romney being a great VP.

Posted by: pastor on July 20, 2008 11:05 PM
15. John Kasich gets the nod for most pragmatic choice by Quinn Hillyer at American Spectator followed closely by SEC Chair Chris Cox. Portman's service under POTUS GWB gives moonbats an avenue to claim Johnny Mac is the 3rd GW term. No need to hand them that plank.

Kasich won the balanced budget battle vs the Clintonistas in the 90's. He polished his foreign affairs IQ while at Fox and is very nimble on all domestic issues. Plus, he brings Blue Dogs to the ticket (ala Reagan). Time to get Kasich warmed up in the bull pen to bring him in as the closer.
http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=13564

Posted by: BellinghamBill on July 21, 2008 07:26 AM
16. Also at the American Spectator

MITT MATCH While Mitt Romney's set of paid PR minions are busy pushing out Mitt for Vice President spin, McCain campaign insiders say that while it's true they have polled Romney on the bottom of the ticket, the data confirms that such a move would be a political disaster for the party.

"Mitt tanks the ticket," says a McCain insider. "We lose fiscal conservatives. We lose social conservatives. We lose Catholics. We lose evangelicals. All the groups were spending time and money on bringing into the camp would be lost. He just doesn't help us enough to do something like this, as much as Mitt might think we should. He doesn't even win us Massachusetts."

Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on July 21, 2008 07:49 AM
17. The good news is any VP choice Obama makes will be bad for him and any choice McCain makes will help him. Obama is too much the egoist and superstar...he'll damage his own "partner" more than his opponents will. John McCain is the ultimate peacemaker and can fit or work with almost anyone.

Posted by: John Bailo on July 21, 2008 09:40 AM
18. Both Jindal and Palin are strong candidates -- both have done great reform work in their respective states, and both are good on television. I like Jindal a lot, but I think Palin may be the smarter choice. Jindal is very, very socially conservative, and I think that could turn off independents. I have no idea what Palin's positions are with regards to social policy, but my guess is that they're not as hard-edged as Jindal's. I may be wrong, though.

I like Romney, but I just don't see what he adds to the ticket. Sure, he brings economic cred and a smooth campaigning style, but he didn't exactly light the trail on fire in the primary. He's better as a McCain surrogate, with the promise of a cabinet position. The best thing to recommend him is that the GOP wouldn't have to lose a popular governor.

Posted by: Zeeb on July 21, 2008 11:16 AM
19. "What does it say about their Presidential candidate when our VICE-Presidential candidate is 10 years younger and has 10 years' more executive experience? McCain-Jindal 2008"

(World rights reserved)

Posted by: sronly on July 21, 2008 11:54 AM
20. I like John Kasich because of his economic knowledge and previous budget experience during the Clinton years. Palin and Jindal would be great picks also. I'd rate Romney farther down the list

Posted by: KS on July 21, 2008 09:41 PM
21. Pros for Jindal
- he trumps Obama on all Obama's strenths. He is young, energetic, very articulate and funny, actually has way more accomplishments than Obama, and is a minority with a compelling family story. Repubs can sweep the Indian-American vote
- Is an expert on typically Democrat issue: healthcare, education (was president of Louisianna University system) plus has pushed through school choice as governor, and a reformer passed the stronges ethics reform package in the nation

Pros for Romney
- Economy, Economy, Economy
- Plan Romney in Michigan, Ohio, and other mid-west states and hammer on the economy and nothing else by stressing jobs, and energy. Michigan is ripe for a GOP pickup and Romney should be able to deliver it

Posted by: drm on July 21, 2008 11:01 PM
22. Slick Mitt Romney would be a mistake of epic proportions,,,Thomas Monson, Warren Jeffs and their magic underwear would destroy any chances we have in November....

McCain-Palin 08

Posted by: Carlos Echevarria on July 26, 2008 10:34 AM
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