July 17, 2008
State of the Polls
Polls aplenty as of late in our Governor's race. Moore Information says we're all tied up, SurveyUSA says Gregoire by 3, and Rasmussen says Gregoire by 6.
Nothing much new in all that. With all polls being conducted during or after July 9th AND using a likely voter screen, it's clear the race remains in a highly competitive stasis that may well hold, at minimum, until the General Election campaign commences in full after Labor Day.
That said, a note on Moore Information. They are a well-respected brand name in local GOP circles. But, this blogger has a simple - and admittedly crude - lens through which I view their polling: add three to the spread in favor of the Democrat.
If the poll shows a tie, I give the Democrat a lead of three. If the poll shows the Democrat by four, I give them a lead of seven. You get the idea.
Fair or not, that's my read after years of seeing Moore's results. Reliable pollster, but always seems to modestly (and consistently) overstate where the GOP candidate is at.
All in all, I peg the currently Gregoire lead at about 4-5 points, with roughly 20% of the potential electorate either truly undecided or swayable between now and voting time.
My two cents, for what it's worth.
Additionally posted at the Examiner.
Posted by Eric Earling at July 17, 2008
09:16 PM | Email This
1. Eric: Gregoire was leading Rossi by double-digits in October 2004. SurveyUSA I think.
I take their poll and subtract about 10 points from Gregoire.
2. Didn't all these pollsters say President John Kerry would be at the helm in January 2005?
3. @1:
I take their poll and subtract about 10 points from Gregoire.
Wishful, delusional thinking will get you nowhere.
4. Well, I don't know what the polls are saying but if Sir Dino comes across on public display as he did yesterday on the Dave Ross Show he's in serious trouble. You can probably catch the interview on Ross's web site but basically my impression is that he tried to 'slick' his way through the interview and it became obvious. Especially when asked about revealing his tax returns...he gave a quick 'roll-over the subject' answer that 'he'd basically revealed all the information he was going to' and said something to the effect that '...and that's all I'm going to say on that matter'...very abrupt and final?
So, what's up with that attitude. It didn't play well and if any of you have his ear you may want to advise him to answer questions in a more succinct and direct manner instead of this 'used-car salesman' rapid-fire banter he used yesterday.
He's got to find a way of not coming across as a 'slick politician' type or he's done.
Just saying. :)
5. Polls are subject to a lot of manipulation. What are the precentage of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents polled. Are they from Seattle only. You get the drift polls are subject to the area and demograph questioned. I had heard that they were inflating Democrats nationwide in the polling to get results that they want. If it is done here and Dino is tied. He could well be ahead in the polls. I do not have access to the criteria used for the poll.
I normally ignore polls because they have been shown to be manipulated to get a certain answer in the past and you do not know if they are not doing it again. Polls have been corrupted by those who want to have polls done. Just as Scientist report results that the person paying their check wants to see reported.
Statistics can be used to manipulate results. If you live by the polls you live by manipulated data. Live your life make you discussions known and act like the person you are talking to does not know the True Democrat Tax and Spend. IF we talk enough and tell enough people the Queen will no longer be in charge. We can not afford her type of SPending increases for another 4 years.
6. To quote Will Rogers, " In politics there are lies, damn lies, and then there are polls. The reason they give Gregoire the extra points is to account for the boost King Co, elections will give her. You ask how many points? The answer is whatever she needs to win.
7. demo kid:
I take their poll and subtract about 10 points from Gregoire.
"Wishful, delusional thinking will get you nowhere."
Yeah, from your perspective, facts are delusional.
8. @7: Who is taking a poll and subtracting 10 points for no demonstrable reason? If my candidate were behind, I'd at least be man enough to admit it.
9. Ah, yes...the Sims Factor. After the drubbing Sims got in his bid for governor, I wonder if he will think twice about lending Greywhore a helping hand this time. We should be so lucky.
10. Speaking of Dave Ross, the self absorbed sycophant of the Democratic airwaves was short and rude to Rossi. Dino simply gave the host the same amount of respect he was shown.
Now when Darcy Burner was on earlier in the week, Dave was falling all over himself trying to prop up the weak answers from Darcy. When she agreed to take phone calls, she was hammered by the callers and had no good answers. Yep the old Gilbert and Sullivan, Crossdressing Crusader for Democratic Causes lived up to smarmy leftist street cred.
11. To survive politically in the State of Washington you MUST be a friend of the tribes, kimo-sabi.
12. Naw, you just need to be on their payroll. Toll booths at every entrance to every Casino in the state should resolve the situation...say $20.00 a car?
13. NativeSon: How about we just be ambilvalent and do what's best for the state? Or is that too logical for you?
14. My friend, the word in ambivalent and it implies unsure. That casinos are a boon to the State I am sure.
15. There is no way that Gregoire will win this election. She has worn herself too thin in the eyes of the voters over the past years. Plus, the fact the last race was highly suspect, will bring out enough ire in the voters to put Dino across the finish line this time.
16. She will get appointed again. Elections are so last century (besides bush is in the race)
In a state where the largest city's mayor appears to have more power than the guvnah
17. Until the R's take the issues to the people in public meetings across the State and bypass the leftist Theattle media, there will be no Rossi victory.
Still waiting for the R's to reclaim their gonads.
18. 16 & 17
The Heavy Hammer of Retribution is about to fall. There will be no victory for Gregoire. There is a large undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Gregoire's stealing of the last election, overall poor performance, Casino stink, high gas prices and high taxes that go with it.
19. Demo Kid-
I sense from your posting that you are quite young. (You certainly come across that way anyway.)
Go back and do a review of most "polls" versus outcome over the last 30 years or so, and you'll find that pretty consistently most polls have been off and almost alwasy in favor of democratic candidates.
I don't think this is a commie plot, but I do believe there's a reason for it. Most polls are payed for by major media companies that are in large cities. They cater to reader/viewers in those large cities and tend to hire people who think the way their customers do.
This leads to poll questions that are skewed towards urban issues which often don't end up driving the real choices of the electorate. It also leads to more contact/call points that are closer to the cities.
So in the end, the polls do a great job of capturing input from areas like Seattle, Olympia and Tacoma where Gregiore and her expansionist views of governmentare popular, but don't do as good of a job capturing the views of people who live in places like Hobart, Black Diamond, or other small towns where we just want government to take care of roads and law enforcement and otherwise leave us the hell alone.
(Hobart and Black Diamond are towns just about 20 miles east of Seattle. It's amazing how many Seattlites don't even know that.)
20. Who is taking a poll and subtracting 10 points for no demonstrable reason?
He gave you a reason. You simply ignored it.
Gregoire was leading Rossi by double-digits in October 2004. SurveyUSA I think.
If a candidate is leading in a poll by double-digits and that candidate ends up trailing on election night, it's not too far of a stretch to deduct a similar amount from that poll now.
No. It's not scientific, but does provide a barometer.
Got it now?
21. Until the R's take the issues to the people in public meetings across the State ....
Townhall/public meetings are a waste of time. You get the same type of 35-40 people at each one - if that - and you get a blurb in the paper that nobody's going to read.
22. Gregoire is in a world of hurt.
She now has a clear record of massive increased spending in the face of lower revenues.
Her only alternative is to propose yet another massive tax increase.
She is a failure.
Virtually all the Business Associations are endorsing Rossi. The latest is the Washington Restaurant Association which has previous given $$ to Gregoire.
Blaming Bush and the Iraq War for a fiscal mess Gov. Gregoire has created is growing tiresome among moderates. She's not going to win this time. I don't know anyone who voted for Rossi last time who is voting for Gregoire this time. And there are plenty the other way around.
23. NativeSon: Sorry for the typo. Ambivalent also means "don't care" which most of us don't. We really do hate to see our governor taking bribes, though.
24. I always think it's funny to hear Republicans diss "polls" until they finally see one they agree with.
But I think the poster who mentioned Rossi on Dave Ross' show is right. As long as Dino takes this arrogant, "I don't have to show you my finances/positions/plans to close the projected deficit/et.al." approach, he's headed for a loss. I'm just sayin'...
25. When Rossi was the chair of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, his 2003 budget come out with a $5.5 billion dollar deficit projected by 2009. And under Governor Gregoire that projected budget deficit became a budget surplus (along with setting side $0.8 billion in reserves).
Budget deficit projections happen almost every biennium. Governor Gregoire has solved bigger problems than the current projected deficit, including fixing Rossi's mess.
Boldly plagiarized from Darryl @ Hominidviews.com
26. Who cares about the Rossi/Gregoire poll numbers. I want to see her numbers vs George Bush. The latest Democratic radio commercial I heard has her running against Bush. The Demos must have dusted off an old Darcy Burner commercial and inserted Gregoire's name. I guess it sorta sums up what Gregoire has to offer this state. No talk of ideas or plans to help anyone. A simple "I hate George Bush" from a simpleton....
27. Gregoire endorsed by:
Law Enforcement Administrators of Washington (LAW)
Washington Council of Police & Sheriffs (WACOPS)
Washington State Fraternal Order of Police
Washington State Patrol Lieutenants Association
Washington State Patrol Troopers Association
Washington State Association of Fire Chiefs
Washington State Council of Firefighters
WFSE/AFSCME Local 308 (represents Community Corrections Officers)
28. I did not hear the Dave Ross interview, but if he was asking about Rossi's tax returns, rather than his stances on real issues facing this state, Dave Ross deserved to be summarily dismissed.
I don't pay attention to polls, because they have zero effect on my vote. Political payoffs to tribes and unions, 34% increase in state spending, a $2.7 billion deficit, DSHS failures, internet taxes, felon releases, no transportation leadership, etc, etc, etc, DOES.
29. DL @ 25 sez:
"Governor Gregoire has solved bigger problems than the current projected deficit, including fixing Rossi's mess."
I gott'a ask... Did milk come out your nose as you typed this? It sure came out of mine as I read it!
I'm just sayin'...
30. #28 He showed respect to Sir Dino (as he does all his guests), and I felt he 'Larry King-style' softballed it on his questions of the real-estate salesperson. Never even tried to pin him down on what specific cuts he would propose to finance the superflous transportation package he has 'dreamed up'. So, he was more than gracious to Mr Rossi.
N/Son: with all due respect you come off rather cocky for someone who has (or at least represents) those who have been given so many allowances by this State. I do support our current Governor but I believe she erred on the tribal 'package'.
31. I would deduct 5 points from the incumbent since I think apathy would keep people from actually casting a vote (assuming that "others" will elect the incumbent)...so at this point, Rossi is the winner.
32. No not cocky my friend just confident.
33. Daddy love
Washington State Council of Firefighters
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is the union talking, not us fire fighters.
It was not up us to us for her support.
Many in my FD and others do not support her!
This the same with the police dept.
You may wish to talk with the rank & file. Not some union person who never sees us.
34. We will see how cocky you are when the next Governor lifts the prohibition on Gaming for Non-Tribal people.
35. Interesting how Native Son can correct someones spelling of the word ambivalent yet repeatedly get kEmo sabe wrong. Makes one wonder about his true heritage.
36. The people in Seattle have to put down the kool aid and realize that a vote for Gregoire is a vote for corruption. I am so angry about her Casino kickbacks that have cost us taxpayers 560 million dollars! She has been bought and paid for and we taxpayers are the losers. Travel up I5 and think about the taxes you pay and these obscene every-growing casinos are getting off tax free. Keep in mind, the taxpayers of CA dumped Grey Davis because of his sweetheart deals with the Indian casinos. We need to show the same courage. Ca now receives almost a billion in revenues from their casions thanks to their Gov who is not corrupt like Gregoire.
37. @20:
He gave you a reason. You simply ignored it.
He gave me a bad reason, without substantiation. Why shouldn't I ignore it?
@19: Go back and do a review of most "polls" versus outcome over the last 30 years or so, and you'll find that pretty consistently most polls have been off and almost alwasy in favor of democratic candidates.
Brilliant. So give me the proof.
38. #33, you beat me to it, most FF's and Police officers are able to think for themselves and not have the executive board do the thinking for them, this FF is for Rossi.
39. NW, the riddle was solved a couple of weeks ago. It is a reincarnation of one David Matthews out to haunt the web site again.
40. Swatter,
Can't be. NS is not hysterical enough. : )
41. For an incumbent Democrat Governor in a STRONGLY Democrat state in a Democrat year to only be within the margin of error (and under 50%) before Labor day is a sign of trouble for the incumbent. Rossi has been getting absolutely hammered on TV and radio for a good 6 weeks and all the incumbent has to show for it is a 4 point lead?
To the Democrats who are excited that Dave Ross "trapped" Dino about his tax returns, I ask you a simple question, Can you please tell me 3 things Gregoire has accomplished in her 4 years? All the libs can do is bash Dino for being rich and writing a budget that was signed by a liberal Democrat named Gary Locke. I suggest you D's start finding things Gregoire has done right and quit bashing Rossi because it is not working.
42. Demokid-
If you read my post, there was one built right into the text - and a pretty good one from just a few national election cycles ago.
Want others? Look at the Kerry/Bush polls from the 2004 election just a few days before election versus what really happened. You saw some that had it close, a few that saw Bush squeeking by and a few that saw Kerry squeeking by, but show me one that showed that Bush would handily win by a couple of million votes.
I could go on, but you wouldn't listen anyway. You seem to be here just to pray to your god Obama and offer up knee jerk negative reactions to postings.
43. @42:
I could go on, but you wouldn't listen anyway. You seem to be here just to pray to your god Obama and offer up knee jerk negative reactions to postings.
No, you're cherry-picking the data to suit your own conclusion. Pudgy up there suggested to push the margin over by 10 points, and I want to know what justifies that dramatic of a push. Are these polls systematically biased in that way? Your anecdotal evidence to support that fact is worth just about as much as your other statements... pretty much nothing. Stop whinging and pony up with real data.
Figures. Conservatives really are the reality-challenged community.
44. As a non-practicing, MS in Demography... I love to poll watch...polls like statistics can be manipulated to say anything.From my study of the Wa-Gov race, it is close and very polarized. I feel it is 46% Gregforhire vs. 45% for Rossi with 2% for other and 7% undecided. If an election was held today the undecided I feel it will split 4% Gregforhire and 3% for Rossi. The real problem here is that both Gregforhire and Rossi have high negative numbers.
Margin of error 3% +/-
It is still too soon to tell...a better and more accurate sampling can be made after the primary election.
45. @44:
From my study of the Wa-Gov race, it is close and very polarized. I feel it is 46% Gregforhire vs. 45% for Rossi with 2% for other and 7% undecided.
I can just feel the scientific rigor!
46. I can just feel the scientific rigor! -Posted by demo kid at July 18, 2008 01:19 PM
It's probably just your butt cheeks fast asleep at the computer.
47. Gregoire is Bush -
1) She has spent us into a record deficit ($2.7 Billion) similar to the way Bush spent the Federal budget into record deficits and an alarming debt.
2) She, like Bush in the first election for the office they currently hold won a very close and controversial election.
He is closer to her in the polls than at the same time in 2004. That is the reality of it, dudes on the left.
48. @Duffman/DemoKid: You guys are Dembots. Consider what happened to McCain coverage in Newhampshire. There was one reporter and one photographer waiting at the airport when McCain arrived. Now do you think that these people who are part of the Dem controlled media care about the truth, NO. You guys are so pathetic, you simply look at the tube and receive your programming then you repeat what you have heard without question. DemoKid... you need to purge your re-education programming from your public high school and college and start using some neurons. Duffman, you sound like an independent = socialist, hence you have no core values so just sit at home and don't vote. Do this instead of being a useful idiot for the left. Read and believe... McCain will win by a land slide and so will Rossi...