June 26, 2008
What Republicans Are Up Against Down the Ballot

Republicans here in Washington state are blessed with Dino Rossi at the top of the ticket to provide unique and vigorous motivation in an election year otherwise favoring Democrats on the enthusiasm factor. Elsewhere, the spillover effect of Obama's massive field operation and related voter registration drives are inevitably going to have some effect.

In an odd way, Howard Dean's 50 state strategy may pay some serious dividends through the dumb luck of being paired in 2008 with a candidate whose unique and copious resources allow for enlarged campaign efforts outside of true battleground states. Consider this:

"Texas is a great example where we might not be able to win the state, but we want to pay a lot of attention to it," Hildebrand said. "It's one of the most important redistricting opportunities in the country."

Texas Democrats are five seats away in each chamber from control of the state Legislature, which will redraw congressional districts after the 2010 census.

In Wyoming, Democrat Gary Trauner, running for the state's sole congressional seat, lost narrowly against an incumbent in 2006 and is now seeking an open seat.

"If we can register more Democrats, if we can increase the Democratic performance and turnout, maybe we can pick up a congressional seat," Hildebrand said.

One can see a very plausible scenario where Barack Obama becomes the 2008 version of Michael Dukakis, with an initial lead that fades into the rearview mirror as voters take full measure of the newcomer. Thus, John McCain could win the White House - almost by default - but the enthused Democratic machinery making fresh hay in new territory across the country might well have significant spillover effects down the ballot.

There's no other way to put it, that's troublesome. Not impossible to overcome given the time between now and Election Day, but troublesome nonetheless.

Posted by Eric Earling at June 26, 2008 09:09 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Blessed?

Posted by: Daniel K on June 26, 2008 10:45 PM
2. "One can see a very plausible scenario where Barack Obama becomes the 2008 version of Michael Dukakis, with an initial lead that fades into the rearview mirror as voters take full measure of the newcomer. Thus, John McCain could win the White House - almost by default"

Keep dreaming Eric - it makes for entertaining reading.

Posted by: Daniel K on June 26, 2008 10:47 PM
3. One can see a very plausible scenario where Barack Obama becomes the 2008 version of Michael Dukakis, with an initial lead that fades into the rearview mirror as voters take full measure of the newcomer.

Equally as plausible is that John McCain's complete lack of traction with the electorate continues, and the Republicans go into a complete tailspin.

Posted by: demo kid on June 26, 2008 11:11 PM
4. You two need to get both a hotel room and medication for your delusion. Barry Dukakis will set back d's in presidential politics for decades.

Your inability to see that just speaks to your massive political ignorance.

Posted by: Hinton on June 26, 2008 11:33 PM
5. If Bush hadn't already set Republicans back decades himself, I'd be worried. But you've set things up so that a ficus could run and win as long as it isn't a Republican...

Posted by: demo kid on June 27, 2008 01:22 AM
6. I do wish they'd give McCain some adrenaline shots on the campaign trail, but the fact remains that the young Fauxbama is the unqualified candidate here this election cycle.
We just have to convince the electorate that world affairs, domestic issues, the economy, etc. are more important than putting some empty suit with nice hair and a dentine smile behind the wheel of car long before he's ready to drive it. It is in this area that American's have famously shown fairly good judgment when deciding national elections (If you let them take a 'mulligan'on that nasty 1976 election), and will likely do the same this year. Obama's weaknesses are his very strenghs, he talks one hell of a game, but has done nothing to back it up.

Any mutt can show up to the beach tanned,ripped and carrying a surfboard while spewing Keaunu Reeve's lines, but you won't know if he can surf until he gets out in the waves.

Obama can't surf...and the tide is rolling in.

Posted by: Rick D. on June 27, 2008 05:55 AM
7.
There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking here in this forum that:

1. Obama will somehow morph into something other than what he has been up to this point; charismatic and inspirational to most of those of us who are not preprogrammed to hate all things Democratic,

2. John McCain will somehow hit his stride, control his temper and improve his campaign style into something a lot more effective than it’s been up til now,

3. And that Dino Rossi can somehow do what he didn’t do last time, get more votes than Christine Gregiore.

Comparing Obama to Dukakis is ridiculous. Dukakis was a poor public speaker who faced an excellent communicator and a savage attack machine. If anything, I’d say McCain’s position is more analogous to Dukakis’.

It’s hard to find a pundit anywhere that won’t at least tacitly admit the Republicans are at a rather large disadvantage this cycle because of pretty much everything the Bush administration has done over the last 7+ years.

So good luck to Dino, but I don’t give him much of a chance this year. I predict he’ll end up in the same trash bin of political careers as Crasswell and Carlson.

Posted by: Unkl Witz on June 27, 2008 07:05 AM
8.
One more point occurs to me as well. All you folks that keep touting the critical need for experience in the executive office seem to forget that Gregiore has a ton of it and Dino’s got none.

Posted by: Unkl Witz on June 27, 2008 07:11 AM
9. The Governor has a ton of it alright. A ton of campaign donations to maintain gaming monopolies, continue pay raises for State Union workers while the private sectors take a hit and develope a ton of new regulations that will cost taxpayers untold millions.

Posted by: Huh? on June 27, 2008 07:59 AM
10. "The Republican Party is a dead rotting carcass with a few decrepit old leaders stumbling around like zombies in a horror version of 'Weekend With Bernie,' handcuffed to a corpse." -- Larry Hunter -- Larry Hunter

Call ir right now... the GOP will be DOA in November.

Posted by: demo kid on June 27, 2008 08:03 AM
11. Here's what the good are up against. A couple days ago I shocked my 7th grade daughter with a counter against the DaliBama.

So, yesterday, on the way to work, Monica Crowley was talking about Obama. Daughter revs into spin mode and spews (somewhat along the lines of ivan and witz), "see, see how she criticizes Obama over nothing."

Once again and knowing how she values human and animal life, I respond, "do you know Obama supports the rights of a women to kill her baby after it is born if she doesn't want it?"

"Where did you get that? Did he say that?" she retorts. "Yes, little one, he did," I respond.

"Well, everyone has something bad about them," she dismisses what is an important issue to her in order to support her belief in Obama.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the overriding issue. Everyone is willing to ignore how bad Obama is on the issues because of the sonorous and staccato speech abilities he has with a teleprompter in front of him.

I agree with ivan and Witz with their rantings. Get some backbone, Rs, or you will be dinoed (extinct).

Posted by: swatter on June 27, 2008 09:02 AM
12. Witz,

Why is it that all of the apostrophes in your posts show up as some sort of block (IE) or diamond character (Firefox)?

Are you using some other editor to generate your text?

Posted by: Smoley on June 27, 2008 09:04 AM
13. MS Word (I'm a miserable speller it has spell-check)

Posted by: Unkl Witz on June 27, 2008 09:16 AM
14. Swat:

I think it's healthy to teach our children to be deeply skeptical of what they hear from the media, the government , and all religious institutions. I think it's also very healthy to voice another side of the argument even it it's not the one you necessarily believe.

Kudos for your parenting skills.

Posted by: Unkl Witz on June 27, 2008 09:23 AM
15. Once again and knowing how she values human and animal life, I respond, "do you know Obama supports the rights of a women to kill her baby after it is born if she doesn't want it?"

Ahhh... typical of the lies peddled by right-wing radio. I'm simply amazed that rational people can believe that crap.

And Monica Crowley is a power-mad fearmongerer. To assume that anything that comes out of her mouth is even close to reality is crazy.

Posted by: demo kid on June 27, 2008 09:39 AM
16. swatter's name for obama: 'dalibama' is the best yet. that is clever and just cracked me up.

nice one.

that said, the republicans under bush have screwed themselves for this election. nominating mccain reinforces my belief that the need to re-invent the republican party will be delayed beyond november.

mccain is going to trot out all of the same old tired republicans from the past 12 years, who have accomplished little (other than lining the pockets of their friends) and have become associated with incompetence and intransigence in the minds of voters.

speaking of voters, the dems are just kicking butt in voter registration throughout key states.

the dalibama has invigorated people, which should translate into votes. say whatever about mccain, but neither vigor nor invigorate are words people associate with his campaign.

Posted by: dinesh on June 27, 2008 09:48 AM
17. demo, I heard him.

Witz, you are right in one respect. I will take the other side when she agrees with my point. But, in the instant case, she is diagonally opposed to my beliefs.

Posted by: swatter on June 27, 2008 09:55 AM
18. "speaking of voters, the dems are just kicking butt in voter registration throughout key states."

Yeah, we know how Democrats register voters.

Posted by: pbj on June 27, 2008 11:05 AM
19. Swat:

I suspect your daughter is going to come away from that conversation with the impression that her dad is a bit of a demagogue of the issue of abortion.

By the way did you also explain that the Bush administration is willing to kill tens of thousands of innocent people in Iraq by prosecuting a war of aggression?

Posted by: Unkl Witz on June 27, 2008 11:14 AM
20. "By the way did you also explain that the Bush administration is willing to kill tens of thousands of innocent people in Iraq by prosecuting a war of aggression?"

How does that justify the 20 million the Democrat's have murdered through abortion?

Posted by: Hu? on June 27, 2008 11:23 AM
21. @17: You "heard" him? Give a quote, pal, or go back to chatting about how he's a "sekrit Mooslim" like a good dittohead drone.

Posted by: demo kid on June 27, 2008 12:09 PM
22. Sorry, 21, your posts don't warrant the effort to get quotes. Bring your A-game and I might.

But, I was just giving an example of the issue Rs are going to have- the free pass given to this very, very defective nominee of the Democrat party.

Posted by: swatter on June 27, 2008 12:55 PM
23. @23: Sorry, 21, your posts don't warrant the effort to get quotes. Bring your A-game and I might.

Ahhh! Afraid that your inane statements backed up by "things you've heard" won't stand up to actual scrutiny, huh?

How very typical of morally compromised conservatives.

Posted by: demo kid on June 27, 2008 01:48 PM
24. "don't warrant the effort to get quotes" = I have no quotes beyond the one that I made up.

Tsk, tsk.

Posted by: Ryan on June 27, 2008 02:25 PM
25. Stop and consider - would you rather have a balance of power by both parties or total control by one (in this case the Democrats) ?

Why would you not want a balance of power, other than for your own self-adulation ? I can say without hesitation that this country will be a lot worse off four years from now - if Barry Obama is elected President and as predicted - the Dems stay in control of congress. Morally compromised and common sense challenged liberals and progressives will FUBAR this country.

Posted by: KS on June 28, 2008 11:45 PM
26. @25: Stop and consider - would you rather have a balance of power by both parties or total control by one (in this case the Democrats) ?

I love the hypocrisy. For the balance of the past eight years, the Republicans have had control of both houses of Congress, and the presidency. Where was your consideration of "balance of power" then?

And it seems like this country has been "FUBARed" enough over the past eight years. A McCain presidency would put the nail in the coffin.

Posted by: demo kid on June 29, 2008 12:56 AM
27. #26 - You are making ASS-umptions. As a matter of fact, the Republican control of the executive and legislative branches of Government from 2001-06 was BAD, as was Clinton's first term. The last two years of Bush are not as bad as the first six because of the balance of power.

I have shown that I believe in the two party system. You apparently don't and if Obama gets elected and this country gets FUBAR'd, I will point at narcissistic hypocrites like you and say you got what you deserved.

Try a new argument besides McCain is the 3rd term of Bush - based on misinformation from Dem talking points and ones that come from Hollywood. There are differences such as on spending - fiscal responsibility and a more proactive approach on health care and a reformed energy policy -nuclear power, etc. Do you think we should improve ties with rogue nations like Cuba and Venezuela ?

Posted by: KS on June 29, 2008 09:37 AM
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