One of my most trusted friends in politics, former Slade Gorton chief-of-staff Tony Williams, has an op-ed in today's Seattle Times examining the implications of Obama's youth vote.
Williams says Obama voters are more likely to either not finish their ballot after voting for President or split their tickets, presuming they come to the polls (or mail-box) with the enthusiasm shown in the primaries.
I think that's largely correct, though I don't quite share his belief the effects will be minimal. Consider that the Washington ballot will start with statewide ballot initiatives, proceed to federal offices (President & Congress), then move on to Governor. Given the margins we have to consider relevant in the latter race, even a modest number of younger voters taking the time to move from President to Congress to Governor on the ballot could be consequential.
Keep in mind, however, that the polling data Williams cites to support Rossi's competitive standing with younger voters has some additional evidence to support it. John Kerry beat George W. Bush 50% - 47% in the 18-29 age group. In contrast, Dino Rossi won the same age bracket 55% - 45%. That sizable 13-point swing, and the reasons for it, should not be discounted.
Another factor to keep in mind when considering the issue of ballot drop-off (voters not casting votes in down-ballot races): the large number of statewide offices. After the initiatives, federal races, and Governor on the ballot come eight more statewide offices.
Thus, legislative races are going to be buried on the back of many a mail-in ballot. Are young voters casting a general election ballot for the first time going to take the time to vote in legislative races they know little about on the back of the ballot?
Probably not.
Cross-posted at the Examiner.
Posted by Eric Earling at June 24, 2008 07:28 PM | Email ThisThey will either be stoned, or disillusioned by all of the stumbles Obama will make in the TV debate when he can't think on his feet.
Or they will start to connect the dots that Obama and the other Progressives who are resisting drilling in the US are a big part of the reason they have to pay $5 per gallon to fill up their cars.
Posted by: Jeff B. on June 24, 2008 07:44 PMWilliam’s piece struck me as a very desperate hope that those Obama initiates would not necessarily vote down the ticket for the same party. I can’t quite follow his logic though. He somehow thinks that this youthful vote will take the time to delineate their ideological differences between a very charismatic national candidate (Obama) and the nuts and bolts pragmatic decision of a local governor.
Frankly, I find that a bit of a stretch.
So far, the polls are reflecting that this race will be decided in favor of the Dem, regardless of ideology.
Sure, lots can happen, and will happen between now and November. But at this point, I think the smart money is on Obama and Gregiore.
I agree with Jeff B. that the youth vote will do what it usually does on election day - sit home and watch the "Aqua teen hunger force" while simultaneously contemplate the universal qualities of bong resin as it relates to world peace and human existentialism.
Posted by: Rick D. on June 24, 2008 08:08 PMWho won the popular vote by half a million, and who may have won in Florida as well, despite the keep-out-the-vote illegalities of his opponent's brother, and the illegal rulings of that conflict-of-interest poster-queen of a Secretary of State. Your point?
Posted by: tensor on June 24, 2008 08:25 PMHe also received an education in the American presidential election process at the same time he collected his silver medal.
Posted by: Rick D. on June 24, 2008 08:52 PMThis piece seemed to be designed to shore up the Rossi campaign at a time when most people seem to be writng Rossi off, including the BIAW, which has started a major negative campaign that will hurt Dino as much as it might help him this early.
It seems like Rossi's strongest supporters are going for the Hail Mary extremely early and at significant risk. The BIAW is damaging the Rossi brand in time for the damage to stick.
Maybe they don't think anything else can work.
Tony'sop-ed contained nice thoughts, but little evidence. He also failed to mention the McCain drag that might keep people who voted for GW Bush at home with McCain on the ballot.
The combination of an Obama bump and a McCain drag when turnout counts needs to be factored in to any handicapping of the Rossi campaign at this stage.
Posted by: jan on June 24, 2008 09:48 PMHowever, McCain has not resonated that well lately and where is his fire in the belly ?
Posted by: KS on June 24, 2008 10:25 PMA few stumbles, a few age-related slanders, and McCain could easily ride into the Oval Office on a huge Silver Tsunami.
Posted by: Larry on June 25, 2008 01:51 PM