The rapidly escalating price of gas has elevated the broader topic of energy policy to a top tier campaign issue this year. While it may not become "THE" issue, it may well be the most important topic for GOP candidates to get right this year.
The problem is the optics of the issue. As former WSRP staffer Josh Kahn has noted, Republicans being forced to take tough votes that makes sense economically but are not so sunny politically poses a substantial problem.
The intellectual merits of their positioning are sound. We already have evidence that shows oil companies pay $3 in taxes for every $1 in profits they make. That makes a windfall profits tax dubious on the surface, even before one considers that such onerous taxes on businesses inevitable find a way to be passed on to the consumer.
Yet, even beyond the green-eye shade view of windfall taxes, our historical record with such policies isn't so impressive:
What began as a compromise by the Carter administration to lift ceilings on oil prices grew into a bureaucratic nightmare that Congress in 1984 called the "largest and most complex tax ever levied on a U.S. industry." The law produced nowhere near the revenue it promised, made the country more reliant on foreign oil, and generated reams of red tape, according to a 2006 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.
-The windfall profits tax raised a total of $40 billion, instead of the $227 billion initially projected, and generated no revenue after 1986, because oil prices fell and domestic production was lower than expected.
- The tax reduced domestic oil production 3 percent to 6 percent because it increased investment risk.
- Imports increased 8 percent to 16 percent because of the competitive advantage the tax gave to foreign oil companies.
It shouldn't take a preeminent economist to figure out reducing domestic supply of energy is in neither our short nor our long-term interest.
Nevertheless, the populist positioning of the bulk of the American electorate on gas prices is clear (latest evidence here). Republicans must respond with full spectrum energy policies.
As such, kudos to Norm Colman for having the political foresight to offer such thinking in a hotly contested campaign, including expanded use of domestic resources and serious efforts to expand usage of nuclear power. Concurrently, one can see him talking about biofuels, green technologies, and energy efficiency.
There isn't one answer to $4 (and rising fast) gasoline. There are short and long-term solutions based on the economics of resource recovery and technology development. Environmentalists and their allies like to howl "we can't drill our way out of this problem." No kidding. You can't tax your way out of it too.**
More importantly, while green technologies like plug-in cars are no doubt the future in many respects, we need a bridge of energy resources to get us to that decades away place without severe economic pain. Die-hards on the left might not think economics matter as much as long as we're doing right by their eyes to Mother Earth, but wouldn't you know, soaring gas prices mean the American public writ large, and even a plurality of self-identified liberals, support increased drilling.
The Democratic response to such challenges seems entirely too focused on the technology of the future, which is years, and many cases decades, away from widespread commercial availability. Their response in the meantime seems to be tax oil companies, drive less, and find other ways to conserve. Talk about the Audacity of Hope...because that's all they're offering.
More importantly, it does indeed look eerily like the return to the Jimmy Carter era that we've tried before and didn't seem to work out so well. McCain laying into Obama with gusto on that theme (as he has done before) is an excellent rhetorical step forward in this debate.
McCain's only policy proposals are not perfect. Conservatives have said and written much about their objections to his position on ANWR as well as cap & trade. Yet, it behooves Republicans of all strips to step forward with full spectrum energy policies that offer near-term solutions on gas prices, long-term solutions on improved energy independence, and that continue to remain environmentally prudent.
Today's thought provoking Robert Samuelson column offers the alternative:
We all know that gasoline is at $4 a gallon and oil is at $135 a barrel. But if you think that's the end of the story, don't talk to economist Jeffrey Rubin of CIBC World Markets. By Rubin's reckoning, we've barely passed the halfway point on a steady march upward that will take gasoline to $7 a gallon and oil to $225 by 2012. Despite fluctuations, the underlying rise, he says, will have pervasive and surprising side effects.
More importantly, perhaps:
The world may have arrived at Peak Oil, when dwindling oil reserves no longer permit much annual increase in production. This may not be literally true; estimates of vast undiscovered oil reservoirs imply that Peak Oil is decades away. But governments that control 75 percent or more of known reserves are behaving as if Peak Oil is already here. They're hoarding a scarce commodity by limiting new exploration projects. Meanwhile, production at some old fields is dropping rapidly. Spare capacity has been depleted, as demand outruns new supply. [emphasis added]
That is exactly why our own national energy policy has to include expanded use of our own domestic resources. Republicans have to run on that given Democratic refusals to embrace the obvious need for expanded and more affordable domestic energy.
**h/t to Michelle Malkin for that line, which she delivered on TV yesterday.
Posted by Eric Earling at June 18, 2008 07:56 AM | Email ThisNeither has subjegation.
Can you image what offshore drilling would do for communities like Aberdeen and Hoquiam which are still suffering 20 years from after the environmental assault on the timber industry?
Posted by: TG on June 18, 2008 08:39 AMNo nuclear plant starts since 1978.
No refineries started in thirty years.
Offshore drilling prohibited.
Offshore _exploration_ prohibited.
Many parts of the Bakken oil shale, oil shale in the rockies, Alaskan oil - all off limits.
I'm sure none of those will actually have any impact. At least now that I've had a lesson!
Posted by: Al on June 18, 2008 08:42 AMThat seems quite reasonable and almost tiny...much as the Libs would like to paint a picture of squanderous energy use of exurbians.
And that number includes trucking and transportation and public transit as well.
Posted by: John Bailo on June 18, 2008 08:53 AMNo, thanks.
Posted by: Gary on June 18, 2008 09:04 AMWhy can't we develop solutions like more fuel efficient vehicles, AND drill for more domestic oil?
Posted by: Palouse on June 18, 2008 09:19 AMThey have been saying the same damn thin sinc the 1980's. Apparently China thinks you can drill your way out of it, they are teaming up with Cuba to drill off the coast of Florida. They will slant drill into oil we should rightfully be getting.
As for the 8 year to market argument, that is what the Democrats told us 10 years ago under Clinton. Had we acted then, our gas wouldn't cost $4 per gallon.
Posted by: pbj on June 18, 2008 09:20 AMFortunately,it appears that this issue is resonating with people the right way.
Democrats are saying, "It's 10 years before we get any oil!". Wait a sec'... I *thought* we didn't drill there because of the environmental concerns. So, why are they now saying "It'll take too long!"?
Seems even they are almost changing their minds.
I agree we need to learn a lesson, but I think the lesson is that we should not and cannot rely on hostile trading partners (and let's stop pretending the Saudis are our friends) for absolute necessities.
Your dig about our "war" is noted, and is something that I often see from people who live in your "country".
Democrats are communists. They don't like being called that though. I don't know why.
Posted by: Gary on June 18, 2008 03:21 PMDemocrats want *no* power. Anybody care to prove otherwise?
Nationalize Health Care - Increase misery
Nationalize Fuel - Increase misery
Nationalize Banking - Increase misery
Works every time. FDR introduced government programs and policies that continue to cause misery right into the the current time. For example Social Security.
Let there be no doubt that without misery (fear) Democrats lose power and voter base. With misery (fear) Democrats gain power and voter base.
The trick is to market the misery as saving the people. We are taxing the oil companies, rich and producers for the people. This in turn will destroy markets and jobs. Escalating the misery factor and creating more fear which in turn results in more Democrats being elected.
Republicans have not effectively dealt with this sham.
Posted by: Snuffy on June 18, 2008 10:47 PMThe Democrats have holed up in their anti-capitalist Tora Bora hoping they can weather out the growing anger of the American public. Their impotent assaults against Big Oil and 'speculators' are going nowhere and everyone is asking "When is Congress going to open the oil fields?"
The American electorate has grown more sophisticated and vague threats of environmental doom are way down on their list of concerns. Not many of us give a damn about the polar bears when the cost of gas is approaching $5 a gallon.
Posted by: Bill K. on June 18, 2008 11:09 PM1) Fossil Fuels contain CO2 and burning them
gives us Global Warming.
2) Nuclear Energy produces toxic waste that
remains deadly for thousands of years.
3) A combination of Clean, Sustainable, and
Renewable energy is required to not only
reverse the damage we have caused to our
world, but also to allow us to overcome
our dependency on fossil fuels.
4) One Nuclear accident can kill thousands
of people and cost millions of dollars
to clean up. A Nuclear war would kill
millions of people and leave our world
devastated! Nuclear winter could occur
and continue to wipe out millions more
people even after the bombing stopped.
Threatening the entire human population.
The world's Energy Crisis will require a long term solution. I don't know what the solution(s) will be, but I do know that... If everyone in the world had fewer children, everyone alive now and everyone yet to be born would eventually benefit from this gesture.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.