June 18, 2008
Show Us Your Energy Policy Now, Please

The rapidly escalating price of gas has elevated the broader topic of energy policy to a top tier campaign issue this year. While it may not become "THE" issue, it may well be the most important topic for GOP candidates to get right this year.

The problem is the optics of the issue. As former WSRP staffer Josh Kahn has noted, Republicans being forced to take tough votes that makes sense economically but are not so sunny politically poses a substantial problem.

The intellectual merits of their positioning are sound. We already have evidence that shows oil companies pay $3 in taxes for every $1 in profits they make. That makes a windfall profits tax dubious on the surface, even before one considers that such onerous taxes on businesses inevitable find a way to be passed on to the consumer.

Yet, even beyond the green-eye shade view of windfall taxes, our historical record with such policies isn't so impressive:

What began as a compromise by the Carter administration to lift ceilings on oil prices grew into a bureaucratic nightmare that Congress in 1984 called the "largest and most complex tax ever levied on a U.S. industry." The law produced nowhere near the revenue it promised, made the country more reliant on foreign oil, and generated reams of red tape, according to a 2006 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

Specifically:

-The windfall profits tax raised a total of $40 billion, instead of the $227 billion initially projected, and generated no revenue after 1986, because oil prices fell and domestic production was lower than expected.
- The tax reduced domestic oil production 3 percent to 6 percent because it increased investment risk.
- Imports increased 8 percent to 16 percent because of the competitive advantage the tax gave to foreign oil companies.

It shouldn't take a preeminent economist to figure out reducing domestic supply of energy is in neither our short nor our long-term interest.

Nevertheless, the populist positioning of the bulk of the American electorate on gas prices is clear (latest evidence here). Republicans must respond with full spectrum energy policies.

As such, kudos to Norm Colman for having the political foresight to offer such thinking in a hotly contested campaign, including expanded use of domestic resources and serious efforts to expand usage of nuclear power. Concurrently, one can see him talking about biofuels, green technologies, and energy efficiency.

There isn't one answer to $4 (and rising fast) gasoline. There are short and long-term solutions based on the economics of resource recovery and technology development. Environmentalists and their allies like to howl "we can't drill our way out of this problem." No kidding. You can't tax your way out of it too.**

More importantly, while green technologies like plug-in cars are no doubt the future in many respects, we need a bridge of energy resources to get us to that decades away place without severe economic pain. Die-hards on the left might not think economics matter as much as long as we're doing right by their eyes to Mother Earth, but wouldn't you know, soaring gas prices mean the American public writ large, and even a plurality of self-identified liberals, support increased drilling.

The Democratic response to such challenges seems entirely too focused on the technology of the future, which is years, and many cases decades, away from widespread commercial availability. Their response in the meantime seems to be tax oil companies, drive less, and find other ways to conserve. Talk about the Audacity of Hope...because that's all they're offering.

More importantly, it does indeed look eerily like the return to the Jimmy Carter era that we've tried before and didn't seem to work out so well. McCain laying into Obama with gusto on that theme (as he has done before) is an excellent rhetorical step forward in this debate.

McCain's only policy proposals are not perfect. Conservatives have said and written much about their objections to his position on ANWR as well as cap & trade. Yet, it behooves Republicans of all strips to step forward with full spectrum energy policies that offer near-term solutions on gas prices, long-term solutions on improved energy independence, and that continue to remain environmentally prudent.

Today's thought provoking Robert Samuelson column offers the alternative:

We all know that gasoline is at $4 a gallon and oil is at $135 a barrel. But if you think that's the end of the story, don't talk to economist Jeffrey Rubin of CIBC World Markets. By Rubin's reckoning, we've barely passed the halfway point on a steady march upward that will take gasoline to $7 a gallon and oil to $225 by 2012. Despite fluctuations, the underlying rise, he says, will have pervasive and surprising side effects.

More importantly, perhaps:

The world may have arrived at Peak Oil, when dwindling oil reserves no longer permit much annual increase in production. This may not be literally true; estimates of vast undiscovered oil reservoirs imply that Peak Oil is decades away. But governments that control 75 percent or more of known reserves are behaving as if Peak Oil is already here. They're hoarding a scarce commodity by limiting new exploration projects. Meanwhile, production at some old fields is dropping rapidly. Spare capacity has been depleted, as demand outruns new supply. [emphasis added]

That is exactly why our own national energy policy has to include expanded use of our own domestic resources. Republicans have to run on that given Democratic refusals to embrace the obvious need for expanded and more affordable domestic energy.

**h/t to Michelle Malkin for that line, which she delivered on TV yesterday.

Posted by Eric Earling at June 18, 2008 07:56 AM | Email This
Comments
1. Moderation has never been an American trait and I'm afraid you must endure a very painful period of education on the value of energy resources before you learn. Unless the 'war' expands or you start yet another (w/Iran) this will be the hot topic as you go into the election. McCain by default perception will always be associated with your current President and thus 'a friend to big oil' and unless he can somehow change that image he is destined to fail. While the 'sky is not really falling' life (as you've known it) will be painful for a period of at least the next five years. Long-term however America will have learned a valuable lesson and be better for it.

Posted by: Canuck on June 18, 2008 08:24 AM
2. Canuck;
Yes, I appreciate (not) your advice. You who have a struggling economy in a nanny state country have nothing to say that I want to hear. I do agree about the valuable lesson though, it's just probably not the lesson that you think it is.

Posted by: REBEL on June 18, 2008 08:31 AM
3. Hey canuck, how's that health care plan these days?
A question for the greenies: if drilling now won't help for years, what makes battery powered cars so appealing when they won't be ready for even longer?

Posted by: PC on June 18, 2008 08:34 AM
4. Another way to put it is 67% of American's support off shore oil drilling....the remaining 33% have their heads stuck firmly between their tail feathers hoping the problem will just go away.

Posted by: Rick D. on June 18, 2008 08:37 AM
5. "Moderation has never been an American trait".

Neither has subjegation.

Posted by: Gary on June 18, 2008 08:38 AM
6. I'm guessing that energy industry jobs must not be unionized? Every politician (Democrat or Republican) talks about the need to create high paying jobs, it amazes me that the job creation aspect of increase exploration and production is so overlook.

Can you image what offshore drilling would do for communities like Aberdeen and Hoquiam which are still suffering 20 years from after the environmental assault on the timber industry?

Posted by: TG on June 18, 2008 08:39 AM
7. Thanks for the lesson Canuck! Somehow I figured that some of these features might play a small part, but I've bean learned now!

No nuclear plant starts since 1978.
No refineries started in thirty years.
Offshore drilling prohibited.
Offshore _exploration_ prohibited.
Many parts of the Bakken oil shale, oil shale in the rockies, Alaskan oil - all off limits.

I'm sure none of those will actually have any impact. At least now that I've had a lesson!

Posted by: Al on June 18, 2008 08:42 AM
8.
I was reading some stats on gasoline usage. The number of gallons sold per day is 400 million. The number of US drivers is 196 million. The average per capita consumption of gas is about 2 gallons a day.

That seems quite reasonable and almost tiny...much as the Libs would like to paint a picture of squanderous energy use of exurbians.

And that number includes trucking and transportation and public transit as well.

Posted by: John Bailo on June 18, 2008 08:53 AM
9. #8. Yeah, Democrats seem to think that we just drive around aimlessly, for no reason other than to use gasoline. Their mission in life is to tell us where we can live (crammed into cities) and where we can travel (within the city limits only).

No, thanks.

Posted by: Gary on June 18, 2008 09:04 AM
10. Once again, the Democrat solution to our energy problems is to suspend the laws of supply and demand and tax "windfall profits", investigate market manipulation. Complete B.S. that will do absolutely nothing to ease prices.

Why can't we develop solutions like more fuel efficient vehicles, AND drill for more domestic oil?

Posted by: Palouse on June 18, 2008 09:19 AM
11. I am tired of hearing the lame excuse "you can't drill your way out of it" or "it will take 8 years to get that oil to market, we need it today".

They have been saying the same damn thin sinc the 1980's. Apparently China thinks you can drill your way out of it, they are teaming up with Cuba to drill off the coast of Florida. They will slant drill into oil we should rightfully be getting.

As for the 8 year to market argument, that is what the Democrats told us 10 years ago under Clinton. Had we acted then, our gas wouldn't cost $4 per gallon.

Posted by: pbj on June 18, 2008 09:20 AM
12. As for China drilling off our coast, Democrats don't care about that. They'll just buy *our* oil from China. Brilliant!

Fortunately,it appears that this issue is resonating with people the right way.

Democrats are saying, "It's 10 years before we get any oil!". Wait a sec'... I *thought* we didn't drill there because of the environmental concerns. So, why are they now saying "It'll take too long!"?

Seems even they are almost changing their minds.


Posted by: Gary on June 18, 2008 09:40 AM
13. I always enjoy snarky comments from Canadians about our economy when it slumps. I'm having trouble even parsing this one though. What "lesson" do you think we will learn from this? That we should all ride bicycles? That we should all live within a 50 mile strip of the border, like Canadians do? Can you be more specific?

I agree we need to learn a lesson, but I think the lesson is that we should not and cannot rely on hostile trading partners (and let's stop pretending the Saudis are our friends) for absolute necessities.

Your dig about our "war" is noted, and is something that I often see from people who live in your "country".

Posted by: jvon on June 18, 2008 12:51 PM
14. Bailo, two gallons a day? Hmm, that's about 9 bucks. I know people who spend more than that a day at Starbucks.
So why haven't the dems got on the old standby mantra "it's only a couple espresso's a day" ?

Posted by: PC on June 18, 2008 03:09 PM
15. It won't be long before the Dems advocate nationalizing Starbucks just like they advocated nationalizing the oil industry *today*!

Democrats are communists. They don't like being called that though. I don't know why.

Posted by: Gary on June 18, 2008 03:21 PM
16. How come there is no talk about the vast oil shale reserves located in Colorado, Wyoming & Utah that contain 1.5-2.6 trillion barrels of recoverable oil? It makes economic sense at $80 per barrel to process it into oil. Canada also has vast reserves of "oil sands" that may contain another 1.7 trillion barrels of oil. There is no shortage of oil if we have the will to do what it takes,

Posted by: jimt on June 18, 2008 08:12 PM
17. jint, we *have* talked about the oil shale, but just two weeks ago the Democrats in the Senate voted to extend the moratorium on development there. Democrats *want* us in pain, else we wouldn't need them to be our mothers.

Democrats want *no* power. Anybody care to prove otherwise?

Posted by: Gary on June 18, 2008 08:27 PM
18. Misery provides votes to Democrats. And Democrats love to create misery. Republicans on the other hand have not been able to deal with the Misery quotient even in good times. Simply put there are more poor people than rich people. And the Robin Hood theme bears fruit for the Democrats.

Nationalize Health Care - Increase misery

Nationalize Fuel - Increase misery

Nationalize Banking - Increase misery

Works every time. FDR introduced government programs and policies that continue to cause misery right into the the current time. For example Social Security.

Let there be no doubt that without misery (fear) Democrats lose power and voter base. With misery (fear) Democrats gain power and voter base.

The trick is to market the misery as saving the people. We are taxing the oil companies, rich and producers for the people. This in turn will destroy markets and jobs. Escalating the misery factor and creating more fear which in turn results in more Democrats being elected.

Republicans have not effectively dealt with this sham.

Posted by: Snuffy on June 18, 2008 10:47 PM
19. Congress at the behest of the environmentalists created $135 a barrel oil. Congress must now fix the problem by getting the hell out of the way. We are sitting on trillions of barrels of oil in this country and contrary to that asinine bromide of the Democrats, we can drill our way to lower prices.

The Democrats have holed up in their anti-capitalist Tora Bora hoping they can weather out the growing anger of the American public. Their impotent assaults against Big Oil and 'speculators' are going nowhere and everyone is asking "When is Congress going to open the oil fields?"

The American electorate has grown more sophisticated and vague threats of environmental doom are way down on their list of concerns. Not many of us give a damn about the polar bears when the cost of gas is approaching $5 a gallon.

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