The topic comes up in David Postman's coverage of an upcoming fundraising event for John McCain and related federal GOP efforts. Is anyone aware of any independent analyst who has said Washington state is expected to be a serious battleground in 2008?
It was in 2000, yet Gore beat Bush 50.2% to 44.6% (with 4+% going to Nader). In 2004, Kerry beat Bush 52.4% to 45.6%, though neither side spent resources here befitting a swing state.
The Republican Party will definitely end up investing significantly in Washington to support Dino Rossi, through a number of entities including the RNC, the RGA (Republican Governor's Association), etc. But, declaring it a Presidential battleground seems a stretch.
Yes, McCain will say it is, but he says the same thing about California. And if the Golden and Evergreen States are seriously in play come the fall then Democrats have a huge problem on their hands.
As such, it's tough to see where that admission of reality is a "psychological hit."
Posted by Eric Earling at May 10, 2008 09:02 PM | Email ThisOn the other hand, Rossi should be able to prevail (with the necessary extra votes to offset the dead, alien, illegal, etc.) this year. Of course it will be close -- there are a lot of cool aid drinkers here.
And, a Rossi victory may do little more than slow down the socialist (Washington Democraps) movement here. Oh well, be thankful for little things, especially in this state.
Posted by: Dick on May 10, 2008 10:05 PMEven Seattlites are ready to revolt against years of folly and incompetence.
Posted by: John Bailo on May 10, 2008 10:31 PMTo call this a battle ground state seems a bit far fetched to me. Although the state could go either way, I don't really see McCain spending that much time and money here as Washington is not one of the big electoral states. I could see him wasting more money in California then he would spend here as the payoff for the win would be much bigger in the Golden State.
Posted by: TrueSoldier on May 10, 2008 10:33 PMJohn (100 years) McCain with his anti free speech past and pro war rhetoric will not help the GOP at all here.
Oh and i keep hearing Rossi supporters saying he will do great this fall. Has he figured out a way to do better against what is now an incumbent?
Posted by: Lysander on May 10, 2008 11:40 PMThree things
1) Paul is not the nominee get over it and try harder next time.
2) the whole 100 years thing with McCain has been debunked so many times (see pudges post and no I am not a McCain supporter at all).
3) Being an incumbent can either hurt you or help you. In this case the current Governor has done little to make people really want to give her 4 more years. That is just one of many reasons Rossi has received over 32,000 donors so far and at least 62% are new donors where as the current Governor has received a good portion of her money from out of state (nearly $1 million as of the 31st of March).
Posted by: TrueSoldier on May 11, 2008 12:46 AMWho has declared it a battleground state Eric? I am looking at the Postman blog and he certainly doesn't make that claim. I am confused with your premise.
Posted by: pbj on May 11, 2008 01:40 AMI don't think he ultimately will win it, but A. I don't think it's impossible, B. If Obama's amaturishness catches up with him and he goes the way of Dukakis (who, unfortunately, did carry Washington, barely), I think McCain would win.
Posted by: Cliff on May 11, 2008 02:06 AMUntil they wake up and do this, there will be no change in the political landscape of Washington State.
Posted by: Independent Voter on May 11, 2008 06:09 AMNo thinking person still believes the smear about the "100-year war" and McCain. It's been debunked, and it should go away.
Someone who in the same breath mentions Paul and the smear doesn't show much brains.
And yes, I also am no McCain supporter. But I recognize stupid statements. I expect this from the Democrat party. I don't expect it from the few Paul supporters.
Posted by: steve miller on May 11, 2008 06:11 AMAnd why were our troops still in Germany & Japan?
Failed history did you? It was called the COLD WAR. Remember that.
Give up on the RP. For what ever reason he never took off like you had hoped.
It's called get over it.
Gezzz, like a moth to a flame.
Posted by: Army Medic/Vet on May 11, 2008 07:14 AMThis state would be a battle ground if Paul were the nominee, all right. It would have the look and feel of Sadr City.
That said, the only ones to suffer as a result of this strategy are the state GOP staff. Washington State is not in play. Taking these dollars to states that are in play is a common-sense approach where Republicans here will actually have an impact in the McCain victory.
The incompetence at the state and local levels; the lack of vision, lack of strategy; the leeches at the party trough; all of these things will keep us in the democrat backwash.
It's not the superiority of leftist positions; the disaster of a democrat-controlled congress shows that leftist positions are idiocy.
It is the simple lack of competence that dooms this state to the democrat cloak of darkness.
Posted by: Hinton on May 11, 2008 09:12 AM1. If posters here represent even a significant proportion of the pubbie voting base, candidates will have a difficult time taking positions which appeal to the majority of voters. Many expressing opinions are strident ideologues who turn off voters.
2. The pubbie party seems to have conceded urban areas and that is where most of the votes are.
I have lived in this state all my life and like many who are not carpetbaggers, I want the best government possible. Growing up here, there was a moderate form of governance practiced by both parties who cooperated in governing. When there was corruption in Seattle, there was participation by those of both parties in CHEC and Chris Bayley led corruption efforts in King County.
A lot of the more strident voices posting here are imports from other places. They do the republicans here no favors with their stridency.
Posted by: WVH on May 11, 2008 11:31 AMI posted a long rebuttal to Hinton over on Postman's blog, after he said in another post over there that he was going to ''sit this one out'' at the presential level. For people who claim to be any kind of conservative (or for that matter Libertarian), IMO this makes no sense from any rational point of view.
See my other post if you wish, under Postman's last 9 May thread, at:
State GOP won't share
Many are taking the pocket book to the polls with them, and realizing what four more years of this liberal nonsense will cost each household in this state.
Posted by: GS on May 11, 2008 02:53 PM
To make a strategic error of this magnitude makes me wonder if he really dose have the decision making skills necessary to be governor.
Posted by: JK on May 11, 2008 03:36 PMIt's prime time in this state for Hope and Change in Washington!
The 2.6B shortfall is just for the upcoming biennium. Red ink for the following biennium is objectively estimated to be in the FIVE-PLUS BILLION range. This is setting all-time records for gross fiscal irresponsibility by the (D)s, who cannot dodge the fundamental fact that they have been and are in complete control of the legislative and executive branches of WA State government: This happened on THEIR watch.
Posted by: Methow Ken on May 11, 2008 04:51 PMYou can thank Bush for making this year a Democratic Year. And yeah I voted for him in 2004 although I didn't in 2000.
Posted by: JK on May 11, 2008 04:52 PMBut when (and yeah its when) he loses this year that's it for him. There's rarely third chances in politics.
Posted by: JK on May 11, 2008 05:01 PM
That show tell you wonders
Yeah, that is what it was like in 1992.
But I also remember 1994.
So, wake me up in 2010. That will be a great year indeed. But expect the worst this year.
Posted by: JK on May 11, 2008 06:35 PMUnless their legacy party has done some thing really, really bad, they will stay loyal to their primal party affiliation.
Unfortunately, this time, the Republican party has done some things that are reeeeeaaly, reeeeealy bad. They got us into a needless war that we can't win, and the economy is in the toilet.
Also on the bad news side of the ledger for them is that the Democratic candidate is a fairly interesting speechmaker. He can really get a crowd going, even through the medium of television.
Again on the bad news side is the Republican nominee is about as exciting as skim milk. Yeah, he's a war hero; we're not sure how or why, he got his butt shot down in a very unpopular war that no one likes to talk about very much. But he managed to live through the experience (an awful lot of folks didn't), so what the hell; let's call him a hero.
But still, he can't seem to come up with anything new or creative except for things that infuriate his core constituency; like immigration reform or campaign financing.
Bottom line is Washington will no more be a "battleground state" in the Presidential election than Alabama. And Dino Rossi, who has nothing more to offer than he did in the last election, will again be defeated. Except this time, no one will bother on a recount because it won't even be close.
Yeah I have heard of the cold war. It ended about 2 decades ago. Yet we STILL have troops in over 100 countries around the world. McCain embraces the idea of getting more troops stationed in more countries. In other words... He embraces empire.
Paul favors a strong national defense rather than an empire. People in state seem to be leaning more in favor of a republic rather than an empire. That is why we could have been a battleground state had Paul won the nomination.
Posted by: Lysander on May 11, 2008 08:23 PMDon't let Army boy bait you like that. You shouldn't assume he has any idea what he is talking about, he doesn't.
Also, don't assume he is either a medic, or a vet, or was even in the Army. He is just another loudmouthed chicken-hawk of the Rush Limbaugh/Dick Cheney ilk. They love to talk about the use of military force, but in reality, they haven't a clue what it means or costs.
Ron Paul is head and shoulders above anything the R's have offered in the last 30 years.
I guess Obama's continual ties to terrorists doesn't mean anything to you does it. Let's see his Mid East policy advisor resigning due to talking to Hamas, his ties to Ayers (who is still proud of what he did), Reverened Wright, Lousi Farakahn and the nation of Islam...
The list goes on oand on and on, yet I am sure that means nothing to you at all.
As for your comments about myself and Army Medic/Vet I see that you still will post anything without any basis of proof, but then again that is the liberal way.
Posted by: TrueSoldier on May 11, 2008 10:58 PMIt's not up to me to prove who you are or aren't, that's your job. You two clowns sign on here calling yourselves soldiers as if that makes you some kind of foreign policy experts. It doesn't.
Neither of you sound like you've spent any time in any kind of service to the country. You just sound like chicken-hawks.
I am so glad that Army Medic/Vets and I get under your skin so easily that you have to resort to such typical liberal tactics. Yep go ahead and attack our service to our nation with no proof what so ever. Last time I cheked in our nation if you make an accusation you ought to be able to back it up, but I guess in your mind it is proof enough cause you said it. I guess it is all you can really do as you have no real counters to either mine or Army Medic/Vets arguments.
Posted by: TrueSoldier on May 12, 2008 07:35 AMSorry WVH, I am not a carpetbagger. I have lived not only in this state all my life, but I have lived on both sides of it. Have you ever lived for any significant amount of time in Eastern Washington?
Posted by: pbj on May 12, 2008 10:27 AMWhat service? What arguments?
I've yet to see any evidence of either.
Posted by: Unkl Witz on May 12, 2008 06:19 PMNow let's hear more about your "arguments" true. Tell me again what they are. Tell us about how we're winning Iraq. and the 'surge' is working. You know this cuz you were in Bagdad last week (riiiiiight). Tell us 'true', because we really want to know.
Posted by: Unkl Witz on May 12, 2008 08:03 PMThe only phony soldiers are the ones that show up at Democrat events. You aren't a chicken hawk, you are a chicken coward. When the hell did you ever serve in the military Unkl DimWitz?
Posted by: pbj on May 15, 2008 04:09 PM