May 07, 2008
A Very Bad Feeling
That's what I have about Dave Reichert's race this year. And I can't shake it.
As usual, in no small part thanks to the politics of his district, Reichert finds himself on prominent lists of endangered incumbents. Little surprise there since the 8th CD was a major Democratic target in both 2004 and 2006.
But, news that House Republicans are declaring virtually every man for himself is ominous. Reichert has never been a prodigious personal fundraiser, known for his distaste toward making the one-on-one "ask" for coin that is simply part of the job description of holding major elected office. Without Republican leadership to direct nationally-interested donors as well as spend money on the race via the NRCC, etc. there are thus, obvious problems.
Reichert can be all means win. He is a quirky yet at times effective campaigner. Nonetheless, it is tough to have a positive view about how this race is shaping up.
He made it through the 2004 primary with a major assist from strong name ID, after which staff reinforcements were brought into the campaign for more focused general election run. The same phenomena happened in 2006, with outside-the-area help parachuting in to light a fire under a somewhat languid campaign effort after the primary. And now, some of the local political talent that has helped Reichert in the past isn't part this campaign cycle's effort.
In sum, these are not encouraging signs.
On the other hand, Darcy Burner has tremendous weaknesses as a candidate - else she would have toppled Reichert given the fundamentals of 2006. Even with her enthusiastic base of support and related fundraising prowess (especially outside the district), her resume doesn't match up well with Reichert's at all. Plus, she's more of netroots lefty then her campaign let on in 2006. The 8th definitely has Democratic leaning, but that doesn't mean they're ready to elect the political equivalent to Jim McDermott's inexperienced niece.
Just like 2006, Darcy Burner is eminently beatable. The way circumstances are lining up for 2008, however, the same can reasonably said about Dave Reichert. Even with a politically strong top-of-the-ticket for the 8th CD in John McCain, Dino Rossi, and Rob McKenna, there are many plausible scenarios where Reichert runs a decent but not-quite-enough campaign that ends up losing - especially given the ticket-splitting propensities of independent, suburban voters.
Consider it a public warning that this race is a serious danger zone that shouldn't be ignored simply because many Republicans don't think much of Darcy Burner. Someone in the right-of-center world needed to say it.
UPDATE: the news pages of the P-I call Burner's bluff on the value of an Iraq-centric campaign. The more time she spends talking about the issues of 2006 - just like her campaign that year seemed stuck in 2004 - the better chance Reichert has, especially if he effectively communicates the economic-focused agenda discussed in the article.
Posted by Eric Earling at May 07, 2008
08:45 PM | Email This
I see dead people...
2. Darcy's a lightweight, but there's something about Dave Reichert that keeps me from warming to him. Can't say what that something is, but it's there. Jennifer Dunn was a no-brainer. I wish Reichert had the same effect on me.
Burner is a joke. She doesn't even have the qualifications for State Legislature, heck, City Council, let alone Congress.
She's such a joke, that as big of a Republican as I am, if Reichert were a Democrat, and she were a Republican, I'd STILL vote for Reichert. I'd be embarrassed to have her as my Representative.
4. Eric you are assuming that Darcy Burner is who Reichert will run against. In case you have missed his post on the public blog there is another Democrat in the race. Jim Vaugn. He sounds allot more like a Scoop Jackson Democrat. As for his fundraising ability, I really can't say if he has the ability to compete in that arena. He may be a wild card that Burner and to an extent Reichert are not expecting.
5. In a Reichert/Burner match, he is clearly the superior candidate. I don't know anything about Vaughn, but I wish there were more Scoop Jackson dems. The fact that the race is this close points out that the demographics of the state are changing and that it is growing more urbanized and diverse. Right now, the message of the pubbies seems aimed at small towns and rural areas. If the message isn't broadened, this will be a solidly one-party state for the foreseeable future.
Has this guy filed? Is the Democratic Machine going to even recognize that he exists? Nobody, but NOOOOBODY mimics the party line like Darcy.
7. Maybe Reichert will not win, but if he loses to Darcy Burner - I'd be embarrassed to see him lose to the empty skirt. He will have to campaign maybe harder this time if he to retain his seat and dispense of the progressive - Bolsehvik nutroots Burner.
I am not certain if he has filed or not yet. He has posted a few things over at the public blog and is willing to answer questions if you ask them.
9. Just to get it on your radar screen - look for another slack jawed halfwit to try to move into regional races in the near future. Julie Anderson, has been positioning herself in the same manner that Darcy Burner did.
10. She doesn't even have the qualifications for State Legislature, heck, City Council, let alone Congress.
What qualifications is she lacking? She lives in the district, check. She is over eighteen years of age, check. She filled out a Declaration of Candidacy form, check. Backing of a major political party (helpful, not required), check.
Seems to me that Burner has meets all the qualifications to run for an elected office. It's up to the voters to decide if she has the necessary experience to hold that position.
11. Actually cato, you need to be 25 to run for the U.S. House.
12. At least Cato is consistent. He prefers both his National and Local candidates to be inexperienced persons, just as long as they're able to make him "feel good" with empty rhetoric.
Thanks for the correction Dan. =)
He prefers both his National and Local candidates to be inexperienced persons, just as long as they're able to make him "feel good" with empty rhetoric.
Ricky, I vote for whom I feel best represents my views on the issues I care about. I'm open to either side addressing them.
Besides I'm not registered int he 8th, I'm registered in the 7th where I can vote for the Democrat incumbent or the former socialist masquerading as a Republican. Good times. =)
14. I actually have pretty good feeling about the race in that district. Any time we can match up someone who is a dynamic speaker and proven fundraiser like Darcy against a knuckleheaded bureaucrat like Reichert, life is good.
15. Man, if I had been Burner for the last two years, I would have worked my butts off to do something real in the community like becoming a real activist on some cause - heck, even anti-war activism - besides doing just campaign related stuff. Then, I would stand some chance. Even after two years, Burner has nothing on her resume to convince the people that she is worthy of a congressional position.
16. Reichert is one of the few in Congress with integrity and character. What you see is what you get. I will be donating to his campaign even though I do not live in his district. We need many more like him.
17. Man, if I had been Burner for the last two years, I would have worked my butts off to do something real in the community like becoming a real activist on some cause
Seems to me on numerous other threads here that being a community activist is not considered "real experience" or a job one should have before holding elected office. You need a real job, like being a Sheriff or something.
18. "Reichert is one of the few in Congress with integrity and character.
Yes, but until Democrats begin seeing those traits as something worth possessing, they will continue to try to supplant him with someone like Darcy "burnout" Burner, who "enhanced" (see lied about) her resume in the last go-around in 2004.
Liberal values on display.
Come on, now. The last thing we need is even one Reichert in office. Bob, that thing you just canít put your finger on is his atrocious, and worsening voting record.
When you watch him speak in public, peer longingly into those deer-in-a-headlight eyes and you will shudder at the deep ideological chasm. Itís tragic he traded in his empty holster for an empty suit.
The American Conservative Union (ACU) just released its scores for the 2007 session and guess how our serial-killer-nabbing crusader did? In his three years in Congress heís scored a paltry 64 (out of 100) in 2005, followed by an even lamer 56 in 2006, topped off by his latest stellar performance of 48 Ė voting more often than not to give the finger to his party while rubber-stamping Ms. Pelosiís agenda.
Look up the definition of RINO in the dictionary and itís likely accompanied with The Sheriffís vacuous mug-shot. There were only two (2) Republican Representatives who voted more liberally than Reichert last year in the ENTIRE U.S. House Ė fruitcake Mike Castle of Delaware, and cupcake Chris Shays of Connecticut. Now, thereís an accomplishment, Dave!
Was it this Prince Charming who genuflected on bended knee to see if he could deliver the shoe which might fit his delegation sisterís senatorial foot? -A perfect metaphor for his Cinderella political career if there ever was one..
Oh, my, what time is it showing on the clock?
20. "It?s tragic he traded in his empty holster for an empty suit.
That empty holster caught the "green river" killer Gary Ridgway.
And your claim to fame is what?
"Community Organizer"? Talk about an empty suit.
Give us a break, Reichert is such a dim bulb he makes Dubya look like a Rhodes Scholar. This guy is so clueless he got up in front of a crowd of supporters and, with the cameras rolling, unwittingly confessed that the Republican leadership had taken him aside to explain that they would tell him how to vote on the various issues at various times. What a hammerhead! What a na√Įf.
Talk about an embarrassment, this guy shouldn't be allowed out in public alone, much less in front of a camera with a microphone. Darcy is going to eat him for lunch this time around. Especially since his party is on the wrong side over literally every issue these days.
And he didn't catch the Green River killer, he just happened to be the sitting sheriff when some other hardworking folks unraveled the case.
22. That empty holster caught the "green river" killer Gary Ridgway.
Only took him 20 years...and 48 victims to find him. Not exactly an open & shut case there Ricky.
Now tell me Ricky, how many victims died due to his incompetence or unwillingness to pursue a lead?
23. Let's see, I get a choice between an entrenched politician or a nutroots candidate. Joy, oh joy.
24. At least you have a choice...I don't see the seat changing hands in the 7th anytime soon.
Actually Cato, they knew who the Green River Killer was years before they arrested him. They just couldn't prove it till the science of DNA advanced sufficiently.
I attended a King County Search and Rescue training session back in the 90s and the Sheriff's deputy teaching crime search procedures told us that. He described the killer without naming him and said they knew who he was and he knew they knew and were watching him. Which is why the killings stopped when they did. When Ridgeway was arrested and the papers gave his background it was obvious to me he was the man the deputy was describing.
Frankly Lover-boy, I'd think Reichert would be right up your ally; an authoritarian figure who toes the party line. In other words, a typical Republican congressperson.
Send him a check for a few hundred bucks, he's going to need it.
Obfus-CATO-r , Unkl Witz and their other fellow inmates at McNeil Island ~
As for the number of victims, ask Christine Gregoire how many childrens coffins are scheduled for the state budget this year due to DSHS and Gregoires failures in oversight? Quite a body count they've amassed in a short time don't you think?
Gary Ridgway killed women that lead a lifestyle that is hard to track down who killed them, if they were killed or just left town, etc.
The contrast is that Queen Christine not only knows who killed the children under her watch, she's done nothing to correct the situation. I guess the status quo will continue in Olympia until a real governor like Dino Rossi takes the reins and gets this state going in the right direction again.
Do it for the children.
You might want to get the full story on what Reichert said in that speech before you go off name-calling:
"You have to be flexible. So when the leadership comes to me and says, 'Dave, we need you to take a vote over here because we want to protect you and keep this majority,' I do it. There are some times when I say, 'No, I won't.' There are times they have things come to the floor like Schiavo. I was one of five Republicans who voted with Democrats on Schiavo because it was the right thing to do. Government should not have been involved in that decision. Period."
Witz, are you even in the 8th CD? Have you even looked at Reichert's voting record? If you did, you'd see that he doesn't vote the party line as much as the democrats would lead you to believe. He's voted against drilling in ANWR, voted to increase the minimum wage, voted for the hate crimes bill, and voted yes on federal support for embryonic stem cell research. These aren't the sort of things normally associated with a goose-stepping loyal GOP congressman.
I'm in the 8th district and my fear about Burner getting elected is that she'll soon forget about the needs and promises that she made to the people of the 8th CD and quickly jump on some crazy "Prosecute Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld!" bandwagon in order to payback the lunatic left from outside the district that has been bankrolling her campaign. This would be similar to what state senator Eric Oemig did to the people of the 45th.
While I'm not particularly happy with some of Reichert's positions, at least I feel that he's representing some of my views. With Burner, she'd be primarily representing the views of the fringe left from places like Seattle and San Francisco. The choice is an easy one for me.
That's a load of sheep manure Smoley. Reichert votes outside the party line only when it doesn't matter. When it does matter, and his vote might make a difference, he votes with the party 100% of the time. Hence, his unwitting admission of being told when to vote against the party to "protect his seat."
Nice try though Smoley. And we loved your metaphor of "goose-stepping loyal GOP congressman." Very appropriate.
Oh, and we can only hope Burner will join the "Prosecute Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld!" bandwagon. Someone has to do it.
Sorry, but the good Unkl must be smoking something illicit.
The ACU just completed its arduous annual process of distilling the 25 most important votes in Congress in 2007 - the top 25 which clearly delineate one's ideological polarity.
Unfortunately, The Sheriff only voted in favor 12 out of the 25 (48% of the time) as along Conservative party lines - the majority of the time (13 of 25) he voted in favor of Pelosi & Comany's agenda.
These are facts - look 'em up.
31. Unkl out of district, The first thing Darcy has to do is dispatch her primary opponent, a retired Army Major and Iraq war veteran. Of course if she uses her usual Camp Wellstone kool-aid on him she can probably alienate at least 25% of the Democrats that would of voted for her in the process. What will Dwight "Cuba" Pelz do?
32. Unfortunately, The Sheriff only voted in favor 12 out of the 25 (48% of the time) as along Conservative party lines - the majority of the time (13 of 25) he voted in favor of Pelosi & Comany's agenda.
I believe they call that pandering...throw the bum out. =P
I actually attended the 2004 debate against Dave Ross & Dave Reichert at Bellevue Town Center. Ross was by far more articulate and knowledgeable about the issues...but then again he was a political talk show host.
Needless to say the voters went for the uninformed low brow candidate rather than the witty and knowledgeable radio personality.
"I actually attended the 2004 debate against Dave Ross & Dave Reichert at Bellevue Town Center. "
The problem with Little Davey Ross was that he needed a stepstool to reach the podium mike.
Not exactly the kind of representative you want to send to D.C. is it? the 8th District did the right thing then and they'll do the right thing again this November.
34. The problem with Little Davey Ross was that he needed a stepstool to reach the podium mike.
We'll gee Ricky you better not vote for McCain then because Obama is clearly the taller of the two individuals:
McCain is 5'7"
Obama is 6'1/2"
Guess the voters will be doing the right thing this November. =P
Sorry Jeff, but when the vote mattered, like it was going to be close, Reichert voted with the party every time. When it didn't matter, he got to vote against to make it look like he was an independent voice.
What's funny is that he wasn't smart enough to figure out which was which. So his ever so kind and helpful handlers took him aside and explained it to him. "Psssst, Dave, you need to vote against us once in a while to make it look like your not a hack like the rest of us, to protect your seat in what could be a swing district."
But the real kneeslapper is that he actually admitted this in that fateful speech.
McCain is 5'7" of War hero with a resume in the Senate.
Obama is 6' of an empty suit with no resume, questionable ties to Domestic terrorists,American haters and crooks and his only leadership role was as a "community organizer"[insert laughter here].
37. Out of District Unkl, Amaze us with your insight once again, tell us where Darcy departs from Leader Pelosi on ANY issue? How about Jim McDermott? Maybe Eric Oemig? Dwight Pelz? The fact is you cannot tell us because she has no record in positions of public responsibility..absolutely Zero. Darcy will not march in lock step with her party, that would require a spine, she will be more like a "Pelosi puppet" dancing on a string.
Well, as usual Smokie, you've got me in a corner. It's pretty hard to have any kind of legislative record when you've never held public office.
The only thing I have to go on is what she said she would do: get us out of Iraq, NOW.
That would be at odds with both Dapper Dave and Nancy Pelosi, both of whom seem to be more than happy with throwing hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives away in this futile effort.
If it were within my power, I would end both their political careers.
Right now, I'd settle for just Dave's.
Too bad you don't live here to vote on it Unkl. The wild card is this new guy, Darcy may have to spend a few bucks just to get through the primary.
I asked you to tell us where Darcy departs from any of the far left on any issue. Her statements ( which is all we have to go by since she has no record of any kind, let alone legislative) say she will be a lapdog of the left, no original thoughts at all.
So, sounds like we'd be trading a lap dog of the right for a lap dog of the left.
Given where the right has taken us lately, that is still a step in the correct direction.
41. And since I can't vote, how about if I just send money.....
42. Eric - Come on, you guys have nothing to worry about. You all know Burner doesn't have a chance, so why waste any effort on trying to defeat her - it would only give credence to a possibility you're all uncomfortable with anyway, so why feed that. Save yourself the grief - after all House incumbents win more than 90% of the time anyway.
2008 election will focus on character, experience and judgement. John McCain and Dave Reichert are shining examples of all three traits.
Barack Hussein Obama's character? (can you say William Ayres?)
BHO's experience? (can you say 'community activist - whatever that is?)
BHO's judgement? (soaking up Rev. Wright's anti-American rhetoric for 20 years without walking out?)
Darcy Burner character? (puppet of nutroots left)
DB experience? (none in '06, still none in '08)
DB judgement? (who knows? She's never done anything to demonstrate that she has any. Except losing as a democrat during a democrat sweep year - wait.....I guess that's not bad judgement, just bad timing........
McCain and Reichert in '08
44. Out of district Unkl, you cannot vote for me either so just send the money to me, it will have the same effect. Besides Darcy likes being a lapdog, it takes all of the stress out of having to think for herself. She hasn't really had that problem since Sandeep has been doing most of her speaking for her. Say wasn't Sandeep the guy that Goldy podcast saying Liberal values were "Drinking and F#%&ing" when they were on with Dwight Pelz? Maybe she should use that as a campaign slogan.
Hey Eric, here's the antidote for your "Very Bad Feeling". Title: "Darcy Burner - Inexperience Matters"
Reichert, is his own man. He is not for sale like most in Congress. In fact you can't even rent Reichert. Despite his warts, he serves his constituency well.
Conversely, Patti (airhead) Murray is part of the Democrat leadership group in the Senate. Burner has a good role model in Patti, who has done real damage over her years in the Senate.
Reichert is worthy of support by all conservatives.
There were many posted comments about Reichert and the Green River murders that are not true.
1. Reichert's team was NOT closely watching Ridgeway. Ridgeway was arrested for solicting a prostitute a few weeks before his eventual arrest from the DNA sample, no one noticed.
2. Reichert's team had Ridgeway identified to them 7 times over the course of the murders! Including one guy who drove around until he found Ridgeway's truck and the reported it to the Reichert's team -- end result NOTHING.
3. Reichert supported Norm's decision to not put Ridgeway to death against the wishes of most family members of the victims and created a large number of appeals in other death penalty cases as other low lifes sought the same soft treatment.
4. Remember Ridgeway is enjoying spa treatments, color TV, large library, music program, dietary plan approve by a health professional, the internet, probably has a boy friend by now and free room and board for life over at Walla Walla. While you are working your arse off, getting up early for work, watching the same shows he is watching, except you have to pay for it, he is eating better food then your microwave crap, actually has time to work out, unlike you who keeps making promises to yourself about getting excerise someday.
Way to go Dave "Soft of Crime" Reichert.