May 07, 2008
Last night I said Obama has essentially succeeded in winning the nomination without yet assembling the diversified base one usually needs to be competitive in November. My take was based on an examination of the primary (not caucus) states in which Obama and Clinton have competed. David Brooks as well as John Judis at The New Republic have some more extended thoughts on that issue that are worth absorbing.
Posted by Eric Earling at May 07, 2008
06:59 PM | Email This
1. Amusingly, so has McCain.
2. I cant see more than 100 electoral votes in November for Obama. I give him D.C. and a few more blue states at the most. The votes are just not there and wont be there in the fall. The House and Senate are still huge problems for the Republicans. They need to direct their efforts there.
Barack Obama doesn't pass the "Eddie Haskell" test with most of the American electorate.
4. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.
The race is McCain's to lose. Obama is radioactive with large segments of the population. His courtship of the race based vote won't be enough of a demographic to win, and further emphasizes his racist tendencies amongst the larger population.
If Dems were smart, they'd go with Hillary as she actually has a pretty good shot at the presidency. But they are not smart and they almost always choose elitist losers, and that's why Kerry and Gore lost .
6. The most telling thing popped into my mind today. Those who decry capitalism the loudest and always seem to be talking about how consumers cannot be trusted because Madison Avenue manipulates their every economic decision - are the very ones who Madison Avenue has sold a bill of goods to with Obama. He is an empty suit into which the Democrats have poured the hopes and dreams of the gullible, and they are lapping it up.
In a related story:
Obama's First 10 Executive Orders?
Quotes from BarrackObama.com
• Obama enacts stronger "federal hate crimes legislation" to "reinvigorate enforcement at the Department of Justice's Criminal Section."
• Obama creates "a fund to help people refinance their mortgages and provide comprehensive supports to innocent homeowners."
• Obama, following through on his pledge to "meet with the leaders of all nations, friend and foe," signs a non-agression pact with the Hitler of Iran.
• Obama doubles foreign aid to $50 billion to cut "poverty around the world in half by 2015."
• Obama removes our troops from Iraq, leaving a power vacuum filled by Iran.
• Obama enacts socialized medicine, destroying small businesses with taxes to pay for illegal alien healthcare.
• Obama enacts amnesty for illegal aliens.
• Obama enacts legislation demanding carbon friendly cars, hammering the final nail in the coffin of the US car industry.
• Barack Obama enact laws to reinforce affirmative action by funneling money to "women and minority-owned businesses."
• Obama repeals the Bush tax cuts.
• Obama enacts the Employment Non-Discrimination Act to entrench the power of the homosexual lobby.
More than a little scary, I'd say. It is crazy that many people don't think about what they are willing to vote for - Sen. Obama is still the anointed one in the eyes of the mainstream press and they will seldom if ever bring up these issues - because they know that most Americans are against them.
IMO David Brooks had a key sound-bite on Obama:
''His supporters look more and more like the McGovern-Dukakis constituency, ....''
But let's not get complacent already; and don't confuse what we wish would happen from what we objectively expect to happen; i.e.:
I wish ROCKETMAN was right @ #2 when he said
''I cant see more than 100 electoral votes in November for Obama'';
and I agree with Jeff B. @ #5 where he said
''Obama is radioactive with large segments of the population.''
BUT: Obama will get a lot more than that 100 electoral votes. Look again at the Presidential result maps for 2000 and 2004, and remember how far left some parts of this country have gotten:
Couple the above with an unpopular incumbent President, the war, the housing crunch, high gas prices, and etcetera; and anybody who things Senator McCain will win going away by a huge margin in the Electoral College ain't lookin' at cold, hard reality.
Kudlow was on Ingraham Show today. He said the early betting line of 54-38 by the investment class for Obama over McCain.
The Dems have been doubling turnout in the early primaries over the Reps.
As unsavory as a candidate Obama is, he has his following. Now, he starts his drumbeat against Rs and McCain. He will recover as people forget his lack of experience as "community organizer" (whatever that is) and become mesmerized with his smooth, deep voice with the staccato pace.
10. The key demographic group that you missed Eric is new voters. Obama will win or lose depending on whether the enormous group of new voters in the primary and his nationwide voter registration effort succeeds or fails. Eric, you are assuming the same old, past demographics. Rove proved in 2004 that turning out new voters for your candidate is what wins and loses elections in a galvonized electorate. The real key is whether McCain and the Republicans can counter Obama's voter registration effort. Think of it as a Project Vote on a national scale. Obama's effort with Project Vote in Chicago in 1992 proved a key factor in Carol Mosley Brown getting elected, and may have also proved crucial to Bill Clinton getting elected. This is where his experience in voter registration efforts does trump McCain.
tc, this election is about race and race alone. Obama will capture the black vote as do all Democrats.
The question is if during the runup and the numerous articles decrying how whites won't vote for Obama
(because he is black) will make the liberal class feel ashamed and vote for the defective candidate or will they vote for the better candidate.
You and I both know these articles and discussion will occur. I, myself, will question my motives in voting for McCain. I believe my reasons are valid, so it won't be much self analyzing, but others?
Once the "new puppy" adulation and fascination with Obama wears off, you'll see voters start to search through the haze of rhetoric and platitudes and actually look for substance.
Failing to find substance, they'll use their common sense and turn to McCain at least knowing that the guy has actually accomplished something in his political life. That's how I see this panning out.
The youth vote will do what the youth vote always does..talk a good game, but when it comes time to step up to the plate, they'll find something more important to do on election Tuesday (like maybe a rerun of an episode of "lost", "the office" or some other show geared towards couch potatos).
Democrats can't win by making blue states bluer. If they want to win, they need to flip current red states - and Sen. Obama struggles with the demographic groups that will be needed to flip states that currently lean Republican.
BTW: I'm still not certain he has it as wrapped-up as the media would suggest. While it seems very, very likely he'll be the one, the Clinton campaign really has little reason to drop out (other than $$$$) and can continue to make a credible case about the electoral map in a general election - although I don't think the DNC/Superdelegates have the stones to admit she would be the better candidate for their party from a practical perspective. The Florida and Michigan thing is still hanging out there, and while it seems doubtful Sen. Clinton will be able to align all of the stars, I wouldn't fully count her out.
An Obama campaign in the general election WILL get a substantial percentage of Clinton supporters on board - despite what many are saying in the exit polls. However, he really is depending on turning out demographic groups that, historically, are notoriously unreliable.
An Obama nomination is probably a net positive for Sen. McCain. If McCain can put a credible, affable person on the ticket with him, he may have a better-than-even shot in November.
Speaking of the VP selection, it might not hurt McCain to get that selection made and announced soon. It would allow him to step-up the fundraising, get past the inevitable media scrutiny of the running mate sooner rather than later, allow him to cover more territory prior to the Democrats finalizing their process and get some needed free media.
14. Why is it not ok for blacks to vote 90% for barack, but ok for whites to vote 90% for McCain, Edwards, Hillary, Paul? Answer: We know what we are doing, that's why!