Last night I said Obama has essentially succeeded in winning the nomination without yet assembling the diversified base one usually needs to be competitive in November. My take was based on an examination of the primary (not caucus) states in which Obama and Clinton have competed. David Brooks as well as John Judis at The New Republic have some more extended thoughts on that issue that are worth absorbing.
Posted by Eric Earling at May 07, 2008 06:59 PM | Email ThisBarack Obama doesn't pass the "Eddie Haskell" test with most of the American electorate.
Posted by: Rick D. on May 7, 2008 07:46 PMIf Dems were smart, they'd go with Hillary as she actually has a pretty good shot at the presidency. But they are not smart and they almost always choose elitist losers, and that's why Kerry and Gore lost .
Posted by: Jeff B. on May 7, 2008 08:02 PMObama's First 10 Executive Orders?
Quotes from BarrackObama.com
• Obama enacts stronger "federal hate crimes legislation" to "reinvigorate enforcement at the Department of Justice's Criminal Section."
• Obama creates "a fund to help people refinance their mortgages and provide comprehensive supports to innocent homeowners."
• Obama, following through on his pledge to "meet with the leaders of all nations, friend and foe," signs a non-agression pact with the Hitler of Iran.
• Obama doubles foreign aid to $50 billion to cut "poverty around the world in half by 2015."
• Obama removes our troops from Iraq, leaving a power vacuum filled by Iran.
• Obama enacts socialized medicine, destroying small businesses with taxes to pay for illegal alien healthcare.
• Obama enacts amnesty for illegal aliens.
• Obama enacts legislation demanding carbon friendly cars, hammering the final nail in the coffin of the US car industry.
• Barack Obama enact laws to reinforce affirmative action by funneling money to "women and minority-owned businesses."
• Obama repeals the Bush tax cuts.
• Obama enacts the Employment Non-Discrimination Act to entrench the power of the homosexual lobby.
More than a little scary, I'd say. It is crazy that many people don't think about what they are willing to vote for - Sen. Obama is still the anointed one in the eyes of the mainstream press and they will seldom if ever bring up these issues - because they know that most Americans are against them.
Posted by: KS on May 7, 2008 10:21 PMBut let's not get complacent already; and don't confuse what we wish would happen from what we objectively expect to happen; i.e.:
I wish ROCKETMAN was right @ #2 when he said
''I cant see more than 100 electoral votes in November for Obama'';
and I agree with Jeff B. @ #5 where he said
''Obama is radioactive with large segments of the population.''
BUT: Obama will get a lot more than that 100 electoral votes. Look again at the Presidential result maps for 2000 and 2004, and remember how far left some parts of this country have gotten:
2004-Results
2000_Results
Couple the above with an unpopular incumbent President, the war, the housing crunch, high gas prices, and etcetera; and anybody who things Senator McCain will win going away by a huge margin in the Electoral College ain't lookin' at cold, hard reality.
Posted by: Methow Ken on May 7, 2008 10:31 PMThe Dems have been doubling turnout in the early primaries over the Reps.
As unsavory as a candidate Obama is, he has his following. Now, he starts his drumbeat against Rs and McCain. He will recover as people forget his lack of experience as "community organizer" (whatever that is) and become mesmerized with his smooth, deep voice with the staccato pace.
Posted by: swatter on May 8, 2008 07:41 AMThe question is if during the runup and the numerous articles decrying how whites won't vote for Obama
(because he is black) will make the liberal class feel ashamed and vote for the defective candidate or will they vote for the better candidate.
You and I both know these articles and discussion will occur. I, myself, will question my motives in voting for McCain. I believe my reasons are valid, so it won't be much self analyzing, but others?
Posted by: swatter on May 8, 2008 08:32 AMFailing to find substance, they'll use their common sense and turn to McCain at least knowing that the guy has actually accomplished something in his political life. That's how I see this panning out.
The youth vote will do what the youth vote always does..talk a good game, but when it comes time to step up to the plate, they'll find something more important to do on election Tuesday (like maybe a rerun of an episode of "lost", "the office" or some other show geared towards couch potatos).
Posted by: Rick D. on May 8, 2008 08:38 AMBTW: I'm still not certain he has it as wrapped-up as the media would suggest. While it seems very, very likely he'll be the one, the Clinton campaign really has little reason to drop out (other than $$$$) and can continue to make a credible case about the electoral map in a general election - although I don't think the DNC/Superdelegates have the stones to admit she would be the better candidate for their party from a practical perspective. The Florida and Michigan thing is still hanging out there, and while it seems doubtful Sen. Clinton will be able to align all of the stars, I wouldn't fully count her out.
Nevertheless...
An Obama campaign in the general election WILL get a substantial percentage of Clinton supporters on board - despite what many are saying in the exit polls. However, he really is depending on turning out demographic groups that, historically, are notoriously unreliable.
An Obama nomination is probably a net positive for Sen. McCain. If McCain can put a credible, affable person on the ticket with him, he may have a better-than-even shot in November.
Speaking of the VP selection, it might not hurt McCain to get that selection made and announced soon. It would allow him to step-up the fundraising, get past the inevitable media scrutiny of the running mate sooner rather than later, allow him to cover more territory prior to the Democrats finalizing their process and get some needed free media.