Recent items of interest:
1) Fundraising
Brisk money intake on both sides continues. Christine Gregoire raked in about a $1 million in April, fresh off her Legislative session freeze. Rossi pulled in another $625,000, in-line with the $636,000 average of his previous five full months of fundraising.
Some liberals are very excited about these April results. To which the proper response, quoting the Bud Light commercial, is: "Dude..."
She's an incumbent governor in a blue state, with a proven record of raising money in her last election, coming off an extended legal fundraising freeze, armed with the ammunition of a well-funded opponent to motivate her donors. What did you think was going to happen?
2) Polls keep showing a tight race
The latest Elway poll is making the rounds, capturing some national attention. Others can discuss Elway's high margin of error offerings, including his volatile crosstabs. The bigger question is whether it's Elway, Rasmussen, or SurveyUSA, why does independent polling show such a consistently competitive race in a firmly Democratic state?
For that matter, why is Rossi likewise competitive with Gregoire in fundraising, even with her incumbent advantage? The left-of-center might want to honestly consider why those two questions can even be asked at this juncture.
3) When do the ads start?
With both candidates having north of $3 million on hand, when do the airwave wars begin, be that on radio or TV? Moreover, given the media environment of this election cycle that seems to favor effective 24/7 messaging (Clinton, McCain) over ad saturation (Obama, Romney) in competitive races, which campaign team is able to come up with the most creative means by which to influence the election's narrative?
Posted by Eric Earling at May 03, 2008 10:46 AM | Email ThisSpeaking of ads...we hope to have some down in the Vancouver area. I'm tired of seeing just the Oregon campaigners promoting themselves.
And speaking of promoting...with "free" advertising...Mrs. Gregoire will speak at WSUV graduation on May 10.
Posted by: Susu on May 3, 2008 11:22 AMInteresting that an opponent with $400,000 less in the bank is "well-funded".
But I know what *will* happen! With a pretty reasonable record and a lot more money in the bank, she'll easily trounce this no-talent assclown.
Posted by: bma on May 3, 2008 11:28 AMI'd say since Rossi, like Gregoire, is well on his way to smashing the then recording-setting fundraising totals they each had in 2004 that yes, he is "well-funded."
Posted by: Eric Earling on May 3, 2008 12:08 PMI'll be making a donation the this no-talent assclown simply because of your absolutely ridicules argument. I mean seriously, $3.1 million in the bank versus her $3.5 million... in April... seems pretty well funded to me.
Posted by: Mike H on May 3, 2008 12:32 PMI mean, face it. Gregoire and Chopp have effectively deprived Rossi of major issues to campaign on, the state economy is doing reasonably well, the business climate here is very positive, and Rossi's recent news releases are laughable at best.
If the biggest thing that the Rossi campaign can run on is the loss of the Sonics, he's going to be severely routed. And NOT seeing that is extreme self-delusion.
Posted by: bma on May 3, 2008 12:57 PMIt won't be the Sonics, transportation, taxes - those will all be issues the voters make decisions on, but the absolute last thing they will think about before casting there vote will be the last election.
Posted by: Doug on May 3, 2008 01:18 PMThe only reason right now why anyone would vote for the guy is because he has an R next to his name.
Right, because the generic Republican brand name, particularly in Washington state, is so splendid these days. Clearly you could put up any Republican against a well-known Democratic incumbent and hope to have them polling consistently within the margin of error.
Thanks for playing, but no. That's a fools argument.
Posted by: Eric Earling on May 3, 2008 01:20 PMAs a rarity in western Washington, this conservative Democrat thinks Gregoire's "record" has been awful. 1.) Remember her mismanagement of the AG's office by losing a multi-million $ suit because she couldn't keep track of filing dates?; 2.) Remember the resulting multi-million $ lost wrongful termination suit by the attorney AG Gregoire blamed for the mixup?; 3.) Remember the so-called surplus that has evaporated in the past 10 months because of gross over spending and mismanagement?; 4.) Note also that WA is still the 5th highest taxing state despite no income tax; 5.) Remember the rusting ferry system which has been mismanaged now by Gregoire and her predecessors? and, finally, 6.) citing Doug, remember that most reasonable people believe she stole the 2004 election. I don't call her performance "reasonable." By any objective standard, it's terrible.
Posted by: T Gething on May 3, 2008 02:12 PMYeah. Let's look at worthless East Coast mag ratings for the signs. Let's navel gaze and ponder our classroom theories. Don't bother checking in with a small business owner.
Gregoire should be up by 20 points in this state and Rossi running the equivalent of a Richard Pope campaign.
The fact that it's a 50-50 race should have you pissing your pants.
Posted by: jimg on May 3, 2008 02:20 PMThe only assclown I see here is YOU. Deprived Rossi of major issues? No at all. The only thing that is deprived is your brain, deprived of reality.
Gregoire increased spending 33%. She promised no new taxes last time out. Do you think she kept her promise?
The vidauct was already 3 years on the Democrat plate without any action whatsoever. And now here it is four years later and there still is no plan to deal with the viaduct. We already know what Gregoire will do if elected - spend money like crazy without addressing the critical infrastructure needs in the state. When the viaduct collapses in the next quake, it won't just squish Republicans. Is that the legacy this state wants? Because I got to tell you, the viaduct squish has already been done in California in the Loma Prieta quake. Now CA can claim they didn't realize the danger, Gregoire cannot.
And what about Gregoire's Dept of Corrections? Under her leadership, they release rapists within five miles of the rape victim. Felons get released early to kill people.
This strategy has worked well for other campaigns (See: Burr in NC Senate race 2004) and especially since Rossi is already very well known, I'm not sure how much advertising will help.
If Gregoire goes on the attack early in ads, he may want to respond, maybe, with a counter ad, but I'd take a wait-and-see approach on that.
This strategy has worked well for other campaigns (See: Burr in NC Senate race 2004) and especially since Rossi is already very well known, I'm not sure how much advertising will help early on in the game. It'll be more valuable later. Remember: He won/lost last time because the late deciders went for him overwhelmingly.
If Gregoire goes on the attack early in ads, he may want to respond, maybe, with a counter ad, but I'd take a wait-and-see approach on that.
Getting more $$$$$$$$$$$ doesn't mean you'll win.
Can you cay John (i've got the bucks) Kerry
LOL
Posted by: Army Medic/Vet on May 3, 2008 02:42 PMHmmmm... that's a *great* argument. Worked very well for Al Gore, except in this case, Rossi *didn't* get a majority of the legal votes cast.
But whinging about a "stolen" election is the *only* thing that he has going for him right now in the public. Other than that, what does he have going for him? Looks?
@9: Clearly you could put up any Republican against a well-known Democratic incumbent and hope to have them polling consistently within the margin of error.
If you can tell me what Rossi has done, aside from a career as a middling commercial real estate broker and an unremarkable state senator, I'm all ears. I don't really see him as being that different from "any Republican".
Strike that... he's worse than "any Republican". He's a Republican loser. He's working this "stolen election" angle for everything he's got, but once people see that he's an empty suit, they'll get quite disenchanted.
@10: By any objective standard, it's terrible.
Let's see. Regarding those two cases when she was AG, she wasn't directly responsible for the problem in the office. Same with the ferry system... it's been a problem of deferred maintenance that's existed for decades.
The surplus that "evaporated" was a surplus that was created on her watch, the budget was not expanded beyond average increases since the mid-1990s, and the legislature is prepared to trim back next session. Funneling the surplus into tax cuts would have been incredibly idiotic, as the deficit would have been deeper and harder to correct.
What would Rossi have done differently? I'm eager to hear how he would have allocated additional state money to the ferry system, for one.
@11: I always get a kick out of elitist, academically insulated, urban studies experts telling the rest of us that the business climate in Washington state is 'very positive'.
I'm sorry... what other measure are you looking at? The Republican Whining Index?
Posted by: bma on May 3, 2008 02:50 PMYah, except the rules didn't say that you should win if you got more votes, it said you should win if you got more electoral votes.
You can deny it all you want, you can rant all you want, you can make stuff up all you want, but the majority of Americans did not believe that Gore got more votes in Florida then Bush. The majority of Americans did not believe Gore was cheated.
That's the exact opposite with Rossi.
And actually, that said, I think Gore would have been a very strong candidate had he run in '04 or '08. He might have won.
But whinging about a "stolen" election is the *only* thing that he has going for him right now in the public. Other than that, what does he have going for him? Looks?
The fact that Democrats haven't done anything positive in this state other then pay off their interest groups for the past 24 years, and that he won't do that, is quite possibly enough.
If you can tell me what Rossi has done, aside from a career as a middling commercial real estate broker and an unremarkable state senator, I'm all ears. I don't really see him as being that different from "any Republican".
Gary Locke and Frank Chopp disagreed that he was an unremarkable State Senator. So did the Seattle Times, Seattle PI, and pretty much every major opinion maker in the state, even those that didn't vote for him and didn't agree with him.
You lose.
Posted by: Cliff on May 3, 2008 02:57 PMGregoire may have expected a Democratic Presidential tsunomi to help her but the way things have been going for Obama, McCain may actually be competitive in Washington. I think she better hope that the new voting system will allow enough fraud to cover a 5% real vote loss.
Posted by: KW64 on May 3, 2008 02:58 PMIf you think that Rossi is a good candidate, I'm not quite sure that rational thought might be possible for you. Seriously, if this guy is the best that the Republicans in the state can do, I'm afraid that they're really up a creek.
The vidauct was already 3 years on the Democrat plate without any action whatsoever. And now here it is four years later and there still is no plan to deal with the viaduct.
So the Governor is to blame for this one? Nice to see how citizens' groups, the Mayor, the City Council, etc. that are dragging the planning process out are neatly erased from your description of the issue.
We already know what Gregoire will do if elected - spend money like crazy without addressing the critical infrastructure needs in the state.
Of course, Rossi's transportation plan is even worse, as it is completely unrealistic and chock full of bald-faced lying about costs.
Posted by: bma on May 3, 2008 03:03 PMWell, you can think believing what you believe or you can look at the fact that Rossi ran well ahead of George Bush, George Nethercutt, and Republican candidates for Congress in 2004. Thus, thousands of people that cast ballots with many a Democratic vote at the same time chose to vote for Rossi. He's obviously convinced a high number of non-Republican voters that he is a good choice for Governor. Obviously, he has to do it again, but just because you don't see how he appeals to people it doesn't mean it isn't there.
Posted by: Eric Earling on May 3, 2008 03:29 PMbma~ you're right,Hillary will beat Obama for the Democratic nomination.
Voters in this state will turn to Rossi based solely on the performance (or lack thereof) of Governor Greg-wire since her stolen election in 2004. If they count only legitimate votes in 2008, Rossi will once again win the election, and trolls like bma will be sqealing non-stop till the next one.
Posted by: Rick D. on May 3, 2008 03:44 PM"A Penny saved is a state government oversight"
Posted by: GS on May 3, 2008 03:56 PMRossi balanced a state budget in a downturning economy, and with a democrat governor.
Now let's put that into perspective, and show what an accomplishment that was.
Gregoire took a 1.6 Billion dollar surplus and spent that into a 2.6 and rising billion dollar defecit.
Which of these two showed leadership...?
Posted by: GS on May 3, 2008 06:45 PMUhh, I'm agreeing with you. Read the post in context.
I was refuting the claim that he was an "Unremarkable State Senator" by saying even Gary Locke and Frank Chopp agreed he was a very influential and effective Senator, even if they didn't agree with him.
Posted by: Cliff on May 3, 2008 06:56 PMand 27,
Gregoire has added over 8000 state employees up till 2007, not to mention how many more in 2008. (on top of the 20,000 additional state employees Locke added in his 8 yrs of government. Does that sound like an individual who is interested in eliminating any part of government at all?
Rossi has clearly stated he would replace some of the heads of the major departments. He has continually shown fiscal restraint (which
Gregoire cannot even laughingly claim). I suspect he would make a valient effort at balancing the budget that Gregoire has so spendingly overran.
You can look at Gregoire's past as to what she will cut to balance her 2.6 Billion dollar defecit spending spree!
You can look at Rossi's past and determine what he will do.
My vote is with Rossi, as I know what Gregoire's answer will be.
Fiscal restraint with *what* exactly? His personal checking account? He was only one senator working on the budget, and that's pretty much all of the legislative accomplishments to his name. Name me one other thing that he did.
Not to mention that his transportation "plan" is a completely sham and totally irresponsible, and he can't seem to give a straight answer about anything else right now.
Some fools will vote for a ficus if it has an "R" next to its name.
Posted by: bma on May 3, 2008 09:19 PMChristine Gregoire:
With the entire state government being entirely in the hands of democrats including Gregoire, the state has turned a 1.6 Billion dollar surplus into a 2.6 Billion and rising deficit.
Dino Rossi:
"Dino Rossi was the Chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee in 2003 when the state faced the largest dollar deficit in history.
In this leadership position, Dino worked across party lines to balance the state budget without raising taxes, while still protecting the most vulnerable.
There is that better!
Here are are some intresting sites for each in regards to campaigning:
http://www.businessinstitutewa.org/analysis/governor/DinoRossi2008CampaignAnalysis.htm
http://www.businessinstitutewa.org/analysis/governor/ChristineGregoire2008CampaignFinance.htm
One number that I noticed is that Rossi has over 18,000 private sector individual donations and Gregoire has on 6,600. Antoher number is that Gregoire has over 4,000 out of state contributers where as Rossi has only 146. All these numbers are as of the 31st of March, but I think it paints a pretty good picture as to where the money is coming from.
Posted by: TrueSoldier on May 4, 2008 12:32 AMSo no proposed cuts from Rossi still. Got it. Thanks.
Posted by: Lysander on May 4, 2008 07:09 AMAllow me to dismantle your arguments.
Regarding the budget, there is a lot of Republican propaganda kicking around that is just false. Per capita state expenditures as a share of personal income have *decreased* by 1.4% over the past ten years. Washington ranks 36th in terms of taxes as a share of per capita income, or 21st in terms of absolute values. If anything is wrong with our taxation system, it is that the burden of taxes is placed disproportionately on the poor. I don't really see Rossi correcting that in any of his plans, though. (What few are out there right now, of course.)
There is a question as to whether this is crushing taxation for the services that we get. Nowhere in the Republican arguments have I seen a comparison of what services are delivered for the tax money provided, though. There's a lot of nitpicking about line items or very specific programs, but are we getting what we pay for across the board? The Pew Center gave the state an A- ranking for state management performaance, with above average scores across the board. Is there some other measure that we should use?
In terms of the some of the line items, the discussions are quite dishonest. Voters overwhelmingly approved I-732 for cost-of-living increases to teacher salaries, but this was suspended by Rossi in 2003. (Not to mention class size mandates in I-728, which drove education costs up further.) Some of the major increases in the last budget were because these cost-of-living increases were reinstated, according to an initiative passed by the voters in an election.
But let's say for a moment that programs need to be slashed. Which would you propose to do first? Would you throw children off state health care? Or cut teacher salaries and reduce the quality of schools? That may be fine for the hardcore libertarians and the wannabe Grover Norquists of the group, but more of the citizens of Washington are probably not of that mindset.
And before you get all high and mighty about Rossi's role in the budget, it's funny that he wasn't actually leading the charge as much as people say. The plan that he outlined was remarkably similar to that proposed by Gary Locke four months before. The only thing that I would credit him for is not cutting the budget as much as Locke wanted in certain places, but from the tone on this board, I'm assuming that leaving poor children on state-funded healthcare isn't part of the Rossi budget that any Republican particularly appreciated.
Heck, even on this website it was recognized one that the budget was a joint effort between Locke, Rossi, Chopp and Reardon. Consistently, though, Republicans portray this as a herculean effort on Rossi's part. Hardly.
Regarding business climate, the rankings that showed that our business climate was 5th in the nation was given out by Forbes Magazine. You can certainly disagree with them if you like, but I'm anxiously awaiting the alternative measures that you're providing that show that Washington is lagging behind. While
The first major policy position that Rossi took was on transportation, and the plan that he presented was absolute nonsense. Castigate Gregoire for not wresting a decision about the Viaduct away from the Seattle City Council and Mayor, but Rossi apparently thinks that larger bridges are less expensive than smaller bridges, that bottlenecks can magically fix themselves if the roads into them are large enough, and that expanded transit isn't going to be extremely important as energy prices increase.
So if you're expecting me to fall in behind some two-bit real estate broker, you're sorely mistaken. The state GOP committee needs to attract a much better candidate... maybe one that can be taken seriously?
Posted by: bma on May 4, 2008 03:41 PMRossi will do that, Gregoire will F over the people and find a way to raise more fees.
Posted by: gs on May 4, 2008 03:45 PMWhat flavor is your Koolaid?
1. We have no state income tax so your "tax cuts for the wealthiest" is BS.
2. AVERAGE WA teachers salary is $45,724... for a union thug protected employee... oh.. and go look up the definition of AVERAGE. More BS.
3. Poor children may have "no insurance" but they sure as hell have health care... as well as access to public and private social services. Yet more BS.
Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on May 4, 2008 04:05 PMWhy, because they could not raise your taxes last session.
And Lisa Brown, when Robert Mak pressed her in an interview about how she could walk all over the will of the people on this long lasting 2/3's taxing limitation, had nothing to say except they would have to find the cuts to fill the 2.6 Billion dollar shortfall.
IF the court as I suspect throws it out, the fury of the people will once again force the legislature to act and act quickly to resore the 2/3 majority.
I'm tired of watching these legislators stip at the will of the people.
No thanks, I'm voting and donating to Rossi!
Change - Hope - Change - Hope
Sounds like a chant I've been hearing alot of lately.
Posted by: GS on May 4, 2008 04:15 PMHmmm... if you have a regressive tax structure, and you cut taxes, where will the effect be? The poor are going to get screwed over, plain and simple
2. AVERAGE WA teachers salary is $45,724... for a union thug protected employee... oh.. and go look up the definition of AVERAGE. More BS.
If there were no teacher's unions, teachers would get paid absolute crap. Is that reasonable to you? I'm sure that it's easier to feed this line of garbage to people that are too stupid to know any better, but I for one think that education is an important part of our infrastructure.
Not to mention that teachers are paid a lot less than other people in the workforce that are required to have less training. If you assume that teaching is a well-paid job, I'd encourage you to try to raise a family on a teacher's salary.
3. Poor children may have "no insurance" but they sure as hell have health care... as well as access to public and private social services. Yet more BS.
Through emergency rooms that are already stretched to their breaking point due to underfunding? Free clinics that can barely keep up with demand?
Posted by: bma on May 4, 2008 04:24 PM10k raises for all her hench folks
Free 50k full College tuition paid for low income students with a 2.0 gpa? (this one is beyond belief, not a loan, a gift)
33% increase in state budget spending
The 5th highest taxed state in the Nation
Over 8000 new state employees.
But according to BMA there is Nothing that can be cut!
What about the Washington Citizens that are MAXXED out on all the spending, tax hikes and fee hikes?
Any help for them?
Yes there is! Rossi in 2008!
And if you're thinking that "Washington Citizens" are "MAXXED" out, part of the reason for that is that the tax structure favors the highest income earners while middle and low income households are shouldering a heavier share of the tax burden. Why don't we change our regressive tax system, instead of giving even more tax cuts to people that don't need them?
Posted by: bma on May 4, 2008 06:19 PM"If there were no teacher's unions, teachers would get paid absolute crap."
Oh God forbid teachers would actually have to compete and show results like non-government employees everywhere. Oh the humanity of it!
/sarcasm
That's why polls are close. And that's why Democrats are spinning like crazy. They are worried.
Posted by: Jeff B. on May 5, 2008 12:20 AMGregoire is silent on how she will face this budget defecit. She was equally silent when Lisa Brown dreamed up the scheme to send the 2/3 majority tax initiative to her liberal supreme court.
So Gregoire's answer is clear, raise taxes and keep on growing government. Period!
I'm Voting ROSSI all the way.
As Perot once said it's time to shovel out the barn!
Posted by: GS on May 5, 2008 03:50 AMLost the whole thing.
Point I was making? Tell me what taxes you're going to raise. Period.
You demand the cuts, I can come up with many.
You're not willing to cut? Tell me what taxes you're going to raise.
It's very simple.
Posted by: jimg on May 5, 2008 12:01 PMA: Locke (helped in this mess)
B: Gregoire (really got us in this mess)
C: Rossi (will get us the hell out of this mess)
How
A: Freeze Governement Hiring
B: Cut Departmental budgets
C: all of the above!
even a minorly brilliant individual th
Posted by: GS on May 5, 2008 06:27 PM