A new poll from Rasmussen Reports has been released showing Dino Rossi ahead of Gov. Christine Gregoire 47 percent to 46 percent among a survey of 500 likely voters.
Numbers geeks can see some of the details here.
Both candidates have similar favorable ratings; Rossi 52 percent, Gregoire 51 percent.
You can't put too much stock in polls taken in March but these results are indicative of how close we all know the race is. It's a toss-up. Previous polling numbers released have shown Rossi within the margin of error a couple points behind the incumbent.
This is the first poll during the 2008 election cycle showing Rossi with an actual lead however slim. Previous numbers showed him anywhere from two to six points behind.
What will be telling is if Rossi manages to build and extend a lead throughout spring and into summer. If this happens the Evergreen State could see another historic governor's race in the fall.
Extra: For what it's worth Rasmussen shows John McCain ahead of both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Washington. McCain bests Obama 45 percent to 44 percent; McCain 48 percent to Hillary 40 percent.
These presidential telephone poll numbers certainly defy local conventional wisdom.
Posted by DonWard at March 05, 2008 11:04 AM | Email ThisI've always wondered when they use the term "Likely" voter whether the pollsters mean it in a Shakespearean sense.
However, I've always found telephone polls to be weighted slightly in favor of Democrats. Older people tend to vote Democrat, they're more likely to be at home and they're more likely to rely on land telephone lines which pollsters use to conduct these polls.
Just my thought.
Posted by: Don Ward on March 5, 2008 11:50 AMI'm guessing it is because campaign season has not even begun for the general public as far as the governors race goes.
Posted by: Andy on March 5, 2008 11:53 AMThe pendulum in this state has already reached its leftward extent. People are just beginning to wake up to the Progressive disasters of transportation and education mismanagement and overspending. Once people start really tuning in, especially the hard working people that don't pay any attention to politics because they are too busy being productive, it's Rossi by a margin.
Keep in mind, Bush is pretty much the stereotype of everything you DON'T want to be as a Republican running in Washington, that is, he's part of the establishment, he comes from wealth, he's vocally religious, and talks in a very laid-back "Joe Six-Pack" style.
That's basically everything you don't want to be as a Republican in Washington state. You need to appeal to secular moderates and blue-collar union folks, and that is exactly what won't do it.
McCain on the other hand, is very quietly religious, is clearly not part of the establishment, and is seen as a maverick. He's tailor made to win Washington.
He'll crush Hillary like a bug in Washington IMHO. Obama...that'll be tougher, but he's certainly got a shot.
Anyhow, the Rossi thing confirms what we already knew: Gregoire is in trouble, it's going to be a VERY close election.
Posted by: cliff on March 5, 2008 12:41 PMHow do simultaneously appeal to secular moderates and blue-collar union folks? Unless you tailor your message to each and hope the other group didn't hear your other tailored messages to know you're a lying, scheming manipulative politician...
Posted by: FreedomLover on March 5, 2008 01:17 PMFirst off, there is a not insignificant overlap between the two. There are a lot of secular, hard-drinker type blue collar workers.
Second, for those that don't overlap, it's difficult. That's why Republicans so seldom win in Washington. Bush's biggest problem was that he appealed to the Washington variety of neither blue collar union workers no .
It can be done, however. It's not really about issues so much as it's about personality. A lot of the blue collar union workers are very pro-military, Everett, for example, while very blue, is not part of the code pink crowed. McCain's military experience will be very helpful there. Secular moderates like McCain's anti-establishment bent, and frankly, a lot of the things some Republicans don't like him for, i.e. CFR, calling Jerry Falwell an "agent of intolerance," (before making good with him prior to his death), etc.
Posted by: cliff on March 5, 2008 02:17 PM
No wonder she endorsed the way she did in the primaries.
Posted by: Coattails on March 5, 2008 02:56 PM
Their greed (especially in an election year) will be their undoing.
Once the full cost numbers are calculated out, they'll be big enough to gag a horse. The FACT that the great bulk of the money would be dumped into light rail which only 1 per cent of the voters ever would use on a regular basis is a slap in the face of people in this region.
Couple that with increasing inflation, an economic slowdown, and Olympia already saying it needs to raise taxes for other things because the supposed surplus just vanished - well, I'd say DR's chances just increased a good bit.
Posted by: Grappo on March 5, 2008 05:37 PMIf the present arc continues, they WILL eventually find a way to push thru an income tax and turn WA into CA.
I remember when CA truly was the Golden State. Growing up in the midwest, the dream of relocating to CA crossed everyone's mind at least once. Now, people leave CA in droves. A survey found that 1 in 4 residents of LA County wanted out.
Posted by: russell garrard on March 5, 2008 05:40 PMNothing came to mind. Go figure.
Posted by: Andy on March 5, 2008 07:45 PMFor those others that may not have caught the note at the bottom, the +/- for the poll was 4.5 points, which mean's either candidate could possibly be above 50%. Also, that the confidence level in the amount is 95%, which I believe is two standard deviations (stats experts, correct me if I am wrong). This really means to be 99.7% accurate (three standard deviations), the spread would most likely double. The bottom line is the poll is a rough measure, but not necessarily a totally accurate measure. Good for basic polls, but still a lot of variance.
Posted by: tc on March 6, 2008 07:23 AM