AP reporter David Ammons says that he knows some. (In an article on Washington state's budget problems.)
Economists say the U.S. is in a mild recession, and the Senate budget panel says the state faces a deficit of $937 million in the upcoming two-year fiscal period.
Why do I say Ammons' unnamed economists must be prescient? Because of the most common definition of a recession: two successive quarters with declines in the GDP. Since there was growth in the 4th quarter of last year, what Ammons is saying is that there will be negative growth this quarter, which will end in March, and that there will be negative growth next quarter, which will end in June*.
Alas, Ammons does not identify these economists, which is unfortunate because prescient economists, economists who can see the future, would be extremely useful. I would think that a reporter of his stature** would want to tell us who these economists are — and how they manage to do something no other economists, in any country, have been able to do before. Or even any non-economists, for that matter.
(If you would like to see what named economists, none of them prescient, think will happen this year, there are many places to find that information, for example, here, here, and here. Most seem to expect slow growth.)
Cross posted at Jim Miller on Politics.
(*There is one other possibility, that this quarter has a decline and that the numbers from last quarter are revised to show a decline, which could happen, but seems unlikely.
**According to David Postman of the Seattle Times, David Ammons is the "dean" of Washington state's press corps.)
Posted by Jim Miller at February 25, 2008 05:50 PM | Email ThisNation wide we have a down size for sure, but people are still spending. At least looking at all the paper dealer plates on new vehicles and the number of cars on the road.
My problem is rising taxes and using up my food for fuel which is empting my wallet. Government can cut back the feel good stuff and the economy would be fine.
I had my fortune read once with my sister and the fortune teller said wedding bells were in my future. Sure eight years later! I'll believe in fortune teller/economist when pigs can fly.
Posted by: Ken Howard on February 25, 2008 08:29 PM"Government can cut back the feel good stuff and the economy would be fine."
But there is no chance with Gregoire and her gang of thieves. They want all that you have!
Get a raise this year? They'll gobble it up!
Got a job? They will tax you to death!
Got a house? They'll tax it till you don't!
Got anything else? They'll take it!
The Democraps want it ALL!
Posted by: GS on February 25, 2008 08:43 PMThis definition of a recession by Jim's economists is not necessarily true: "two successive quarters with declines in the GDP."
Many economists say it only has to be a decline in GDP growth. So if GDP grew at 4.5% one quarter and then grew at 4.4%, then the next quarter at 3.7% - that would technically constitute a recession. It doesn't have to be two successive quarters of negative GDP growth as their definition implies.
Posted by: Doug on February 25, 2008 09:03 PMAnd how much did that Light Rail cost us?
And how much is the completely unnecessary 520 replacement going to cost us (2B for starters)?
Posted by: John Bailo on February 25, 2008 10:32 PMHowever, as this IS the prevailing definition, the reporter is logically obligated to tell us if a different definition is being used.
Posted by: pudge on February 25, 2008 11:14 PMIs the Price tag in for that boondoggle yet?
Ding Ding Ding Ding
Posted by: GS on February 26, 2008 04:55 AMWill they then turn from their Democratic electeds and vote Republican?
I know many retirees on the State retirement system are worried their well-earned bennies they were promised are in danger.
But, like Jim says, are we really in a recession? It is hard to say that with the success of Boeing and our reliance on international trade. I know the other big employer in this State is the building industry and they are worried because house prices may temporarily drop 10-25%.
But, like Jim says, how can economists predict the housing market when they made those assumptions when interest rates were high and we entered winter- the slow real estate season? Let's wait till March and April before we write off that industry.
Posted by: swatter on February 26, 2008 07:24 AM