February 13, 2008
Feb. 9 Caucus results by County

Here are the latest numbers from the Washington State Republican Party giving a breakdown of the Feb. 9 GOP caucus.

Of note, these are the delegate presidential "preferences" as recorded last Saturday. These "preferences" are not binding and are subject to change based on the whim of the delegates.

Also of note these numbers do not reflect the total, aggregate number of Republicans who showed up to caucus locations statewide.

Finally of note, as has been reported below and elsewhere, the numbers for Benton and Grant County have been corrected. Jefferson County is being re-tabulated as is Snohomish which now has 74.1 percent of its vote counted as of Feb. 11 at 9:15 p.m. Final tallies are expected to be released "later this week".

I was informed by the state party that all of the local media had been given access to these numbers during a press conference on Monday: KING, KOMO, KIRO Q13, Everett Herald, Tacoma News Tribune, Seattle Times and Post-Intelligencer. (I have not seen these numbers posted by any of the aforementioned news outlets but will stand corrected if any of them found the time to bother giving out... well... newsworthy information).

The Huckabee and McCain campaigns have seen the numbers too.

Here are the numbers below:

Adams (31) 9 Huckabee; 14 McCain; 3 Paul; 0 Romney; 0 Other; 5 UnC

Asotin (44) 10 Huckabee; 12 McCain; 16 Paul; 5 Romney; 0 Other; 1 UnC

BENTON (310) 67 Huckabee; 65 McCain; 74 Paul; 78 Romney; 0 Other; 26 UnC

Chelan (168) 51 Huckabee; 41 McCain; 19 Paul; 32 Romney; 0 Other; 25 UnC

Clallam (184) 37 Huckabee; 45 McCain; 47 Paul; 27 Romney; 0 Other; 28 UnC

Clark (939) 211 Huckabee; 151 McCain; 224 Paul; 184 Romney; 88 Other; 81 UnC

Columbia (45) 8 Huckabee; 9 McCain; 9 Paul; 10 Romney; 0 Other; 9 UnC

Cowlitz (302) 80 Huckabee; 49 McCain; 52 Paul; 96 Romney; 0 Other; 25 UnC

Douglas (97) 45 Huckabee; 29 McCain; 4 Paul; 12 Romney; 7 Other; 0 UnC

Ferry (40) 3 Huckabee; 8 McCain; 17 Paul; 0 Romney; 2 Other; 10 UnC

Franklin (117) 46 Huckabee; 20 McCain; 28 Paul; 23 Romney; 0 Other; 0 UnC

Garfield (20) 15 Huckabee; 4 McCain; 0 Paul; 1 Romney; 0 Other; 0 UnC

GRANT (250) 47 Huckabee; 46 McCain; 71 Paul; 45 Romney; 0 Other; 41 UnC

Grays Harbor (103) 38 Huckabee: 19 McCain; 28 Paul; 7 Romney; 0 Other; 11 UnC

Island (142) 34 Huckabee; 47 McCain; 14 Paul; 26 Romney; 0 Other; 21 UnC

JEFFERSON (0) 0 Huckabee; 0 McCain; 0 Paul; 0 Romney; 0 Other; 0 UnC

King (4193) 798 Huckabee; 1321 McCain; 708 Paul; 613 Romney; 22 Other; 731 UnC

Kitsap (379 65 Huckabee; 101 McCain; 59 Paul; 76 Romney; 0 Other; 78 UnC

Kittitas (125) 27 Huckabee; 43 McCain; 26 Paul; 10 Romney; 0 Other; 19 UnC

Klickitat (76) 8 Huckabee; 26 McCain; 28 Paul; 0 Romney; 0 Other; 14 UnC

Lewis (106) 28 Huckabee; 36 McCain; 27 Paul; 7 Romney; 0 Other; 8 UnC

Lincoln (85) 38 Huckabee; 17 McCain; 12 Paul; 4 Romney; 0 Other; 14 UnC

Mason (126) 34 Huckabee; 38 McCain; 24 Paul; 26 Romney; 2 Other; 2 UnC

Okanogan (103) 28 Huckabee; 17 McCain; 38 Paul; 2 Romney; 1 Other; 17 UnC

Pacific (82) 20 Huckabee; 24 McCain; 8 Paul; 4 Romney; 0 Other; 26 UnC

Pend Oreille (42) 12 Huckabee; 7 McCain; 19 Paul; 3 Romney; 0 Other; 1 UnC

Pierce (760) 195 Huckabee; 204 McCain; 150 Paul; 153 Romney; 0 Other; 58 UnC

San Juan (67) 10 Huckabee; 25 McCain; 10 Paul; 15 Romney; 0 Other; 7 UnC

Skagit (252) 66 Huckabee; 82 McCain; 35 Paul; 50 Romney; 0 Other; 19 UnC

Skamania (42) 5 Huckabee; 8 McCain; 11 Paul; 2 Romney; 0 Other; 16 UnC

SNOHOMISH (943) 252 Huck; 210 McCain; 200 Paul; 124 Romney; 13 Other; 144 UnC

Spokane (814) 162 Huckabee; 124 McCain; 379 Paul; 74 Romney; 0 Other; 75 UnC

Stevens (218) 85 Huckabee; 30 McCain; 79 Paul; 7 Romney; 0 Other; 17 UnC

Thurston (546)164 Huckabee; 158 McCain; 90 Paul; 87 Romney; 3 Other; 44 UnC

Wahkiakum (28) 14 Huckabee; 4 McCain; 2 Paul; 4 Romney; 0 Other; 4 UnC

Walla Walla (146) 27 Huckabee; 45 McCain; 41 Paul; 18 Romney; 0 Other; 15 UnC

Whatcom (266) 87 Huckabee; 53 McCain; 64 Paul; 23 Romney; 0 Other; 39 UnC

Whitman (87) 29 Huckabee; 20 McCain; 20 Paul; 10 Romney; 0 Other; 8 UnC

Yakima (180) 43 Huckabee; 39 McCain; 30 Paul; 45 Romney; 0 Other; 23 UnC

Delegates = 12,458
Total Precincts = 6876
Precincts reporting = 6600/ 96%
Huckabee total = 2,898/ 23.3%
McCain total = 3,191/ 25.6%
Paul total = 2666/ 21.4%
Romney total = 1903/ 15.3%
Other = 138 / 1.1 percent
Uncommitted = 1662/ 13.3%


Incorrectly Reported County Totals (2/10/08)

Benton 174 Huckabee; 139 McCain; 133 Paul; 206 Romney; 0 Other; 32 UnC

Grant 56 Huckabee; 109 McCain; 101 Paul; 87 Romney; 0 Other; 20 UnC

Jefferson 41 Huckabee; 61 McCain; 39 Paul; 19 Romney; 0 Other; 13 UnC

Snohomish 620 Huckabee; 489 McCain; 399 Paul; 478 Romney; 24 Other; 296 UnC

Corrected Tallies to Date (2/11/08)

Benton (100%) 67 Huckabee; 65 McCain; 74 Paul; 78 Romney; 0 Other; 26 UnC

Grant (100%) 47 Huckabee; 46 McCain; 71 Paul; 45 Romney; 0 Other; 41 UnC

Jefferson (0%) 0 Huckabee; 0 McCain; 0 Paul; 0 Romney; 0 Other; 0 UnC

Snohomish (74.1%) 252 Huck; 210 McCain; 200 Paul; 124 Romney; 13 Other; 144 UnC

Extra: Most of the figures above are not particularly surprising to anyone who has an ounce of knowledge of the local political scene. McCain did strongest in King County and with support from Pierce and Snohomish.

Outlying and rural counties were decidedly anti-McCain. These are the more conservative portions of the state and areas where Huckabee gained the most traction.

Ron Paul had strong showings in King County as well as Southwest Washington i.e. Clark County. What was really mind-blowing - and caused a double-take on my part - was Paul's overwhelming victory in Spokane County; doubling-up McCain and Huckabee.

This could be because of the influence of students from Gonzaga University, Eastern Washington University and Spokane Community College. Or there could be some other geographical reason... Paul made a stop-over in Spokane earlier this month prior to the caucus.

Posted by DonWard at February 13, 2008 04:05 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Great post and statistical analysis. You just got the date wrong. Don't hold your breath waiting for the press. Britany Spears will be the new story.

DW - Thanks silkworm. Writers cramp. Why do they put the 8 so close to the 9 on the keyboard anyway...

Posted by: Silkworm on February 13, 2008 04:46 PM
2. Thanks, Don. Always good to have real data.

Posted by: Jim Miller on February 13, 2008 05:48 PM
3. Thanks, Don. Thanks also for the coverage of Ron Paul.

I'm still a little confused by the difference between the stated preference of the caucus-goers at the beginning of the caucus, and the reported candidate preferences for the delegates reported at the end.

I'm a delegate and precinct chairman from precinct 1370 in King County. I signed in with my candidate preference, but nowhere on the form in which we reported our elected delegate (me) did it ask for the delegate's presidential preference. I know this because I still have the pink copy.

This is no big deal in my precinct, since I was the only one to show up. (Not many Republicans in Wallingford, I guess!) But I know there were other precincts in which there was quite a bit of discussion. The eventual elected delegate may have instructions to vote, at least initially, for a candidate other than his or her initial preference. Others may have had their minds changed in the lively debate that ensued.

So, my question is, how do the county GOP folks really know what the presidential candidate preferences of the delegates are? Aren't they making a big assumption if they go off of the caucus-goer sign-in sheets?

Pudge pointed out that these results will only have a rough similarity to the eventual delegate counts from the county and state conventions. It will be interesting to see who winds up with what.

Posted by: Bruce Guthrie on February 13, 2008 09:33 PM
4. Bruce G, must agree. This is shaping up to be an interesting contest. See you at district!

Posted by: Mark on February 13, 2008 10:23 PM
5. Bruce -- In a nutshell, yes. In my district, we spent the evening having a tallying party, and tallied everything both ways: all attendees, and those who will be delegates. The second one is obviously a guess, but the best guess there is, at this point. (And it may warm your heart to know that the percentage of Ron Paul attendees who went on to become delegates was the highest of any candidate, and those backing McCain was the lowest -- a considerable difference in perseverance and enthusiasm).

Posted by: TB on February 14, 2008 12:02 AM
6. Thanks Don. Finally we have what we've been looking for!

It can't be stated enough, that these results are in no way conclusive! The anti-McCain sentiment is strong. Even in King Co., McCain's biggest showing, look at those "uncommitteds" and Romney supporters.

In my pooled precinct, Paul won the most delegates.

Posted by: Michelle on February 14, 2008 10:11 AM
7. I believe almost all of the Romney delegates and "uncommitteds" and "others" will go for McCain at district.

I was an Other ...

Posted by: pudge on February 16, 2008 08:26 AM
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