Our state's GOP caucus results exemplified the mixed results John McCain and Mike Huckabee found across the country yesterday.

McCain won a narrow and exceedingly modestly victory in the Evergreen State and scored a strong 2nd place finish to Huckabee in Louisiana, a deep South state holding a low-turnout primary. Of course, he also got crushed in Kansas. National and local journalists have expressed surprise that the presumed Republican nominee didn't receive a warmer embrace. They shouldn't be so perplexed.

Beyond the recent, high profile news coverage of conservative concern with McCain, a simple look at previous primary contests reveals much. Prior to this weekend ten states* had held GOP caucuses or conventions - where conservative activists hold more influence than broader primaries. In those contests McCain finished 4th three times, 3rd three times, and 2nd four times. Moreover, his second place showings ranged from 13% to 41% behind the first place finisher. That compares starkly to McCain's success in winning twelve of the nineteen states holding traditional primaries before this weekend.

Thus, his less than impressive showings this weekend should be little surprise, even as he remains heavily favored in Tuesday's Potomac primary in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, DC.

Huckabee's performance over the weekend likewise had its downside. The Kansas win was impressive, though hardly stunning given McCain's weakness in caucuses and Huckabee's natural affinity with a conservative, rural state in the heartland. His performance in Washington and even Louisiana was less noteworthy.

Given the widespread reporting of the near finality in the GOP race following Mitt Romney's decision this week, turnout in remaining Republican contests is going to be naturally lower than if the race were still in play. Such an environment favors Huckabee given the proven eagerness of his supporters to turnout. Thus, allowing McCain to eke out his first caucus win and only topping him by a mere percentage point in a core Southern state does not bode well for Huckabee in the two-man race he and his supporters claim exists.

If he can't beat a modestly performing McCain in a caucus state with Romney on the sidelines and if he can only narrowly beat McCain in deep South then it's tough to see how Huckabee can even grab good headlines in less fertile primaries to come. After Tuesday's Potomac primary come primaries in Wisconsin and Washington on the 19th, followed by Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont all holding primaries on March 4th. Under that schedule, it could well get somewhat ugly for Huckabee.

*I'm excluding Louisiana from this grouping since their complex, Byzantine system of allocating delegates through multi-staged caucuses and a primary makes Washington's own hybrid system look simple.