Sound Politics: Washington's Caucuses

February 04, 2008

Washington's Caucuses

There's some truth to the P-I's story on the possible impact of the Evergreen State caucuses on Saturday. That impact is likely to be more serious on the Democratic side, with both candidates looking for wins in what looks to be a prolonged fight for delegates.

Even at that, however, there are two twists that will lessen candidate attention to this state. First, the attention paid to the contests on February 12th in DC, Maryland, and Virginia is likely to be significant and will garner more attention from the campaigns. Second, the candidates and the campaigns have been rolling along at a brutal ~~pass~~ pace for some time. There will probably be a 24-48 hour period right after tomorrow results come in where everyone is just trying to assess where things are at, finalize what to do next...and just get a little bit of damn sleep.

So, the caucuses do matter. The candidates may come. Just don't get your hopes up.

UPDATE: Adding to my comments above, I'd say if Barack Obama has a good day today that sets up for, say, a mid-day rally on Friday in downtown Seattle. If his crowds this last week are any indicator his campaign may have some difficulty finding a location to accommodate the crowd.

Posted by Eric Earling at February 04, 2008 09:31 PM | Email This

Comments

1. That's "...brutal pace..."

Posted by: Al on February 4, 2008 10:04 PM

2. I think your site would be a lot more interesting if you provided information where people can vote for these caucases.

Posted by: Jimmy PeanutFarmer on February 4, 2008 10:18 PM

3. Real Independant Voters have to abstain from participateing in the Primary - Caucus system, to particpate is to affilate yourself with either the Democratic or Republican Party.

The voter instructions state that by voteing in the Caucus or Primary, you pledge an oath to that political party.

Independant Voters are free to vote for whom ever they want to in the General Election..... And who know's whom may declare their candidatecy by that time.

Posted by: Steve on February 4, 2008 11:27 PM

4. I was asked today by The Herald if candidates would come here. I said maybe, but I'd be a little surprised if they did, with all that's going on. But if it is really close after Tuesday, it could happen.

Jimmy: the information about the caucuses has been all over the place; I think Eric just didn't see the need to post it again. Go to the web site for your county's party (see the WSRP's list for the Republicans) and all the info should be there, or call your county party office for the information.

Posted by: pudge on February 4, 2008 11:52 PM

5. I am bringing 4 other people with me to the caucuses here in Cowlitz County Saturday.

We Mitt Romney supporters need to work to make sure we bring as many like minded voters as we can. Unless Romney fails pretty bad tonight, we become a great contest to help Romney win!

Posted by: Kyle on February 5, 2008 12:24 AM

6. Jimmy Peanut Farmer, if you contact your County Party, they will direct you were to Caucus by your precinct.

To list every precinct in the state would be too daunting a task. Most County Party's have online sites and phone numbers listed.

Posted by: Lew Waters on February 5, 2008 01:25 AM

7. Steve,

I'm an independent, and I'll be turning out.

The pledge says two things:

"I am a DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN."

And then, in both instances, that you will not participate in the other party's nominating process. The latter is kind of a given.

You may claim party affiliation in name, but you don't "register" as a member of a party and there's nothing stopping you from saying, "oh, well, on Saturday, I was a Democrat/Republican, but..." Maybe you'll end up on some mailing lost. Otherwise, no harm, no foul.

Personally, I'd prefer to make an annoying but hollow declaration than not participate in the nominating process.

Posted by: Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson on February 5, 2008 07:46 AM

8. Benjamin: well, I don't think it is hollow, though I can see how it would be annoying. But regardless, you're right, it is not registering as a member of the party, it is proclaiming affiliation with the party on that day, and for the purpose of the nomination process, and the "oath" extends no further than that.

Posted by: pudge on February 5, 2008 08:18 AM

9. I'd love to be in the West Virginia caucuses today, this will be interesting. After the first ballot Romney has 41%, Huck has 33%, McCain 16% and Paul 10%. Their rules mean that a second ballot has to be taken withouth Paul on it. If no one has over 50% at that point, then a third ballot with just Romney and Huck on it.

Huckabee, Paul and Romney are all there, I'm interested in a couple things. First, what in the heck will a Ron Paul voter do without him on the ballot, who will they move to if they move to anyone. Second, will McCain's supporters hand the victory to Mitt, the one person that could beat him, or will they move to Huckabee to keep Mitt from winning.

Posted by: Doug on February 5, 2008 10:00 AM

10. Pudge, what did your ballot say in relation to the Oath? "I am a member of the Republican Party..." That was the box to click for me, whereas the democrat one started off, "I consider myself to be a Democrat..."

Are they different by county!?! They probably shouldn't be, and it appears from our ballot that it would be tougher for an independent Washingtonian (the rugged type we always have been - even though we vote party line we still consider ourselves Independent) to click the Republican box than the Dem one.

Posted by: Doug on February 5, 2008 10:23 AM

11. Huckabee wins in West Virginia - caucus politics:

1st ballot:
Mitt - 464
Huck - 375
McCain - 176
Paul - 118

2nd ballot:
Huck - 567
Mitt - 521
McCain - 12

That means 33 voters, likely Paul voters, didn't vote the 2nd ballot.

It also means that most likely the other Ron Paul supporters split, giving Huckabee the win. I assume most McCain supporters went for Huckabee just to keep Mitt from winning.

Posted by: Doug on February 5, 2008 11:22 AM

12. Or as a Huckabee supporter would say, it was because they saw that Huckabee was the best.

Funny that the frontrunner would give up his votes so that the third stringer could win.

This tag team will result in buyers' remorse.

Posted by: swatter on February 5, 2008 12:29 PM

13. Buyer's remorse? The way things are going now, Romney has thumbed his nose at a majority of the Republican Primary voters. He and his hitmen, including every major cable news network, blogger, and radio guy, have been pounding out that the voters are idiots to pick anyone but Romney.

Buyer's remorse, no matter what happens there will be anger and remorse, no matter who is the nominee. More will be upset with Romney, but the loudest will be upset with McCain. Maybe, just maybe, Huckabee could pull it out.

Posted by: Doug on February 5, 2008 01:25 PM

14. I notice that Democrats can select their representative by caucus and ignore the actual vote on Tuesday - which provides incentive to attend the Democratic caucus and then also vote the Republican ballot on Tuesday to select their desired opposition candidate.

Republicans can do the same thing - attend a Democrat caucus, pretend to be a Democrat and lobby for their preferred opponent but then also vote on Tuesday as a Republican.

Each party asks that you proclaim yourself a party member (and in the case of Democrats, they ask you to pay a donation to participate); the Republicans ask you to sign a declaration that you won't then vote in the primary. But this is a "wink wink nudge nudge" sort of fraud - sure you can but please don't, both parties say.

Seems like an election system designed for fraud. So far, not a peep out of the media about this.

Posted by: Ed on February 5, 2008 01:46 PM

15. Doug: Pudge, what did your ballot say in relation to the Oath? "I am a member of the Republican Party..." That was the box to click for me, whereas the democrat one started off, "I consider myself to be a Democrat..."

FWIW, I don't look at the ballot I get in the mail. I refuse to vote by mail, so I shred it. But yes, that is what it should say:

Republican: I declare that I am a member of the Republican party and I have not participated and will not participate in the 2008 precinct caucus or convention system of any other party.

Democrat: I declare that I consider myself to be a DEMOCRAT and I will not participate in the nomination process of any other political party for the 2008 Presidential election.

Are they different by county!?!

Nope.

They probably shouldn't be, and it appears from our ballot that it would be tougher for an independent Washingtonian (the rugged type we always have been - even though we vote party line we still consider ourselves Independent) to click the Republican box than the Dem one.

Yep. If it were up to me, I would have had the oath read something like, "I declare that I consider myself to be a Republican and that I have not participated and will not participate in the 2008 precinct caucus or convention system of any other party."

Posted by: pudge on February 5, 2008 03:13 PM

16. Pudge, what I'm saying is that my actual ballot, well the envelope that has the party affiliation oath had two different options:

For Republicans it started out, "I am a member of the Republican party...."

For Democrats it was "I consider myself to be a Democrat....." the rest was pretty much similar saying they won't participate in the nomination proces of the other party.

My issue is that why is it set up that Republicans have to declare themselves 'Members' while Democrats have to say they just 'consider' themselves as democrats? Is there any official reasoning for that? Why isn't the wording the same?

To me it seems that the Republican oath is a bit more exclusive with the Dems more inclusive and I'm wondering if the general population has more of a problem with the R's oath. Who's decision was it to do different oaths?

Posted by: Doug on February 5, 2008 03:31 PM

17. Doug: as to WHY it is different, it is the decision, I presume, of the state committees. The state law does not mandate any particular wording, just that it follow the required declaration of the state party.

I agreed with you in my previous response that it should have been more inclusive.

Posted by: pudge on February 5, 2008 03:51 PM

18. If you don't show up to the GOP Caucus the Paul people will. Must stop the Paultards!!

Posted by: Neo-Con on February 5, 2008 10:22 PM

19. ANY excuse you use to justify non-participation is just that: an excuse.

But it's your own conscience you have to deal with when we're left with crap choices in the general election (both of whom you'll probably complain about)...

If I want to see Ron Paul on the November ballot, I have no problem declaring myself Republican for a day. Same with Barack Obama, Lyndon Larouche, whatever.

Non-participation is what got us what we've got right now, so if you like that, well, keep up the good work...

Posted by: Michael on February 6, 2008 03:28 PM

20.
I respect John McCain for his service to our country, but I find it sad that he has not shown in Washington the same kind of honor that he showed on the battlefield. McCain is not a conservative or a true Republican at all. He's a flip-flopper, who changes his views according to when an election is going to take place. not only has he tried to limit Americans expressing their views to their leaders in Washington, but he has also voted to give social security benifits to illegal immigrants. He said he would seek to overturn Roe v. Wade but just a few years ago he said he wouldn't. As a judicial commitee member, he has kept good judges who were very qualified from being appointed. If he has acted like that as a senator there's no telling what he would do as president. Mike Huckabee is the only candidate who has had a consistent conservative stand when it comes to the issues that are important. He cares about the American people, not the system, and has ideas that will work for America. McCain and Romney have proved that they can't unify the party, but Huckabee can and will. As a young voter, what is happening in America greatly concerns me, but with Huckabee as President we have an opportunity for true change. So I urge all those who want America to stay strong and free to vote for Huckabee, a man who is true to his word and true to his country.

Posted by: Nat on February 8, 2008 12:57 AM

21. I totally agree with the last comment from Nat. John McCain is an American Hero. It would be wonderful to have an American Hero for a President. Unfortunately, he is a flip-flopper and a career Politian. He isn't a true Conservative. He's more like a Liberal RepDem. Not sure he knows himself what he is. Career Politian's will always be Career Politians. He doesn't really say what he is going to do about anything, especially the border. He believes in Amnesty for illegals. He says what you want to hear to get your votes. We need an honest President, a President that will stand on their word, a man with integrity. What ever happened to a "Man's Word"? Will somebody please explain what the word "Sin" means to this man?

Posted by: Joyce on February 8, 2008 11:48 PM

22. I totally agree with the last comment from Nat. John McCain is an American Hero. It would be wonderful to have an American Hero for a President. Unfortunately, he is a flip-flopper and a career Politian. He isn't a true Conservative. He's more like a Liberal RepDem. Not sure he knows himself what he is. Career Politian's will always be Career Politians. He doesn't really say what he is going to do about anything, especially the border. He believes in Amnesty for illegals. He says what you want to hear to get your votes. We need an honest President, a President that will stand on their word, a man with integrity. What ever happened to a "Man's Word"? Will somebody please explain what the word "Sin" means to this man?

Posted by: Joyce on February 8, 2008 11:48 PM

23. I totally agree with the last comment from Nat. John McCain is an American Hero. It would be wonderful to have an American Hero for a President. Unfortunately, he is a flip-flopper and a career Politian. He isn't a true Conservative. He's more like a Liberal RepDem. Not sure he knows himself what he is. Career Politian's will always be Career Politians. He doesn't really say what he is going to do about anything, especially the border. He believes in Amnesty for illegals. He says what you want to hear to get your votes. We need an honest President, a President that will stand on their word, a man with integrity. What ever happened to a "Man's Word"? Will somebody please explain what the word "Sin" means to this man?

Posted by: Joyce on February 8, 2008 11:49 PM

24. I totally agree with the last comment from Nat. John McCain is an American Hero. It would be wonderful to have an American Hero for a President. Unfortunately, he is a flip-flopper and a career Politian. He isn't a true Conservative. He's more like a Liberal RepDem. Not sure he knows himself what he is. Career Politian's will always be Career Politians. He doesn't really say what he is going to do about anything, especially the border. He believes in Amnesty for illegals. He says what you want to hear to get your votes. We need an honest President, a President that will stand on their word, a man with integrity. What ever happened to a "Man's Word"? Will somebody please explain what the word "Sin" means to this man?

Posted by: Joyce on February 8, 2008 11:49 PM

25. I totally agree with the last comment from Nat. John McCain is an American Hero. It would be wonderful to have an American Hero for a President. Unfortunately, he is a flip-flopper and a career Politian. He isn't a true Conservative. He's more like a Liberal RepDem. Not sure he knows himself what he is. Career Politian's will always be Career Politians. He doesn't really say what he is going to do about anything, especially the border. He believes in Amnesty for illegals. He says what you want to hear to get your votes. We need an honest President, a President that will stand on their word, a man with integrity.

Posted by: Joyce on February 8, 2008 11:52 PM